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Gesias Cavalcante vs. Katsunori Kikuno

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From 2006-2007, Cavalcante had seven fights and finished six of them in the first round. It was an unbelievably dominant run for the chiseled Brazilian that saw him take the inside lane in the race for lightweight preeminence. Injuries and disappointing performances have short-circuited his career since then, and this bout with Kikuno could be the one that ends any hope for a return to form.

An altogether unique presence in the sport’s landscape, Kikuno is a hardcore Kyokushin disciple who has unexpectedly managed to integrate the traditional aspects of that style into MMA. In a battle of technique, there are few who can beat Kikuno. However, Cavalcante’s off-the-charts speed and power is something that Kikuno lacks. Just watch Cavalcante’s 2009 bout with Tatsuya Kawajiri and you’ll see how his striking forced “Crusher” to switch gears and pursue a ground-and-pound strategy.

That second dimension is something Kikuno lacks. He doesn’t yet have the mat skills to survive on the floor with Cavalcante nor does he have the takedown defense to win a wrestling match. This leaves him hoping for two things: first that Cavalcante obliges him on the feet and second that he can catch him clean before “JZ” overwhelms him with brute physicality. His best hope of clipping the Brazilian jiu-jitsu convert lies with his stomach-turning crescent kick to the body, but Cavalcante’s swarming style will make creating the space he needs to execute it a trying exercise in frustration.

Generally Kikuno does his best work at range, where he can measure his kicks and time punch combinations. Cavalcante likes to attack in short bursts from close quarters. Keeping Cavalcante at bay on the feet is a key to defeating him, and Kikuno lacks the jab and movement to make that happen. Standing still with your hands low in front of Cavalcante is a sure way to taste his power, and there may not be a lightweight alive who can eat a clean shot from him.

There just aren’t many ways for Kikuno to win this fight, and they all hinge on Cavalcante not turning him into a grappling dummy on the mat. An even battle on the feet shouldn’t surprise anyone, but Cavalcante isn’t going to let that continue for the entirety of the fight. Sooner or later Kikuno will land on his back and find out why there was a time when no one had much interest in fighting “JZ.”