Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
-- M.B.
Jordan Breen, FightFinder Czar: I largely agree with the sentiment that Jon Fitch isn't going to get another title shot any time soon. However, I do think you've come to the right conclusions, albeit not by necessarily the right method.
We're just now getting to a point of depth, skill and stability within MMA weight classes, and in the UFC itself, where it's feasible that a guy who fought for a title a year or two ago is still right in that mix with a wealth of others challengers today. Guys like Fitch and Kenny Florian -- who orbit right around the title so tightly despite seeming miles away from it due to past failures -- are actually a relatively new phenomenon.
The big issue with Fitch is not how entertaining he is (or isn't) or finishing fights (or not). Simply, there's no interest in him fighting St. Pierre again, as there's no reason to believe it would be any different. Obviously, there is a question of how much that aspect should matter if a fighter beats quality opposition and earns it, but in the case of a guy like Fitch, unless something changes in the fighter's game -- a la Florian from the Sherk bout to Penn bout -- he's not going to get that second title shot.
Those changes are what are most important; a new wrinkle that makes people believe a second fight could be different. Plenty of guys in the UFC get title shots on the backs of ho-hum performances, but not title rematches. On top of that, with new up-and-comers in the welterweight division winning fights, Zuffa has other options to explore instead of recycling the same challengers whom people aren't necessarily interested in.
There's a 90-some-percent chance the winner of Koscheck-Daley will end up facing the winner of St. Pierre-Hardy come summer time. The best thing the winner of Fitch-Alves can hope for is that someone knocks off St. Pierre, and kills the rematch angle. Only a new championship foil is going to get either a title shot any time soon.