The past few days have been all about elaborate animal sacrifices and pagan rituals in the hope that every God out there knows the MMA world needs some quick main card matches on this Sunday’s UFC on Versus 1 event. The reason for all the polytheistic overtures is that the seven prelim bouts on the docket all have serious potential.
In the interim, get all your knowledge needs handled with another round of highbrow analysis and lowbrow everything else.
Clay Guida vs. Shannon Gugerty
The Breakdown: Guida, owner of the most distinctive mane of hair in combat sports as well as a two-fight losing streak, looks to rediscover his fistic mojo at the expense of a criminally underappreciated gatekeeper in Gugerty. The recent struggles of “The Carpenter” are owed to his lacking technique on the feet and somewhat overrated wrestling, both of which Gugerty is built to jump on like Travis Fulton taking a last-second fight in a condemned barnhouse.
The backbone of Guida’s game is working relentless, albeit underpowered, ground-and-pound from inside the guard and simply outlasting opponents with conditioning that seems to defy basic laws of human physiology. The problem of late has been Guida’s willingness to get into wild exchanges on the feet that expose his striking and takedown defense. If he repeats that mistake, he’ll get outclassed by Gugerty.
A rangy, powerful striker with surprising wrestling ability as evidenced by his unexpected manhandling of Matt Grice at UFC 100, Gugerty has many of the tools he needs to handle Guida. However, he is missing the slick guard game that would make this fight academic. More of a transitional grappler who lives on sinking submissions mid-scramble, Gugerty will have trouble with Guida’s stultifying top control, assuming Guida is the better wrestler.
Getting tossed by Kenny Florian at UFC 107 once and for all dismissed the misguided notion of Guida being an elite wrestler and exposed holes in his clinch game. Whether or not Guida has learned his lesson and ditches chasing Fight of the Night awards in favor of winning fights will be the make-or-break variable for him come Sunday.
The Bottom Line: A return to form is in order for Guida. He’ll deliver by sticking to his double-leg and denying Gugerty the chance to do much of anything about it. This fight stays one-sided as long as Guida sticks to attacking the San Diego native’s legs, and even if he does get into some standing exchanges, Gugerty lacks the kill-shot power to alter the landscape of this fight. Guida survives a few rallies from Gugerty to take a nip/tuck judges’ decision.