File Photo: Dave Mandel/Sherdog.com
The undercard for UFC Fight Night 21 on Wednesday at the Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, N.C. has been stacked with quality violence. There are no promises any of the bouts will find their way onto the Spike TV broadcast, but it never hurts to sneak in a few pagan rituals and tributes to Zeus just in case they are listening.
This event has something to satisfy every palate, from Andre Winner’s kill-shot quality boxing and Gleison Tibau’s supersonic shots to Gerald Harris’ atom-smashing ground-and-pound. Settle in for a look into the latest offering from UFC President Dana White & Co.
Andre Winner vs. Rafaello Oliveira
The Breakdown: “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 9 runner-up, Winner is perhaps best known for losing a razor-thin decision to countryman Ross Pearson at the reality show’s finale, but a highlight-reel knockout of Roli Delgado at UFC 105 reminded the world why this young lightweight is no joke. The jury remains out on Oliveira, who gassed in his debut against Nik Lentz at UFC 103 and put together a solid decision win over John Gunderson at UFC 108.
Above all else, the key for Oliveira will be his wrestling, as he needs to have top control for his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to take hold. However, his base has looked shaky and Winner, despite lacking a strong grappling background, has proven surprisingly fluid on the mat and far from easy to take down.
A big reason why Winner’s takedown defense has improved in lockstep with his boxing is that his understanding of range and excellent footwork allow him to dictate distance and keep opponents weary of walking into his power. Meanwhile, Oliveira’s striking is heavily reliant on speed and power, as he tries to make up for the glaring technical deficiencies in his game, namely his poor counterstriking skills and apparent inability to gauge the reach of his punches. The picture is far from pretty for Oliveira, as he enters this fight hoping against hope that Winner feels like getting into a grappling meet instead of a boxing match.
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The Bottom Line: Modern MMA is overrun with Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts who have trouble finishing submissions deftly or holding on to dominant positions; Oliveira looks like another byproduct of the devaluing that has gone on in what was once the ultimate trump card. Winner is going to befuddle his Brazilian quarry every step of the way with superior timing and defensive savvy, as he starts to hone in on the holes in Oliveira’s defense. Once Winner sets his sights on the target, “Tractor” may end up looking like he was run over by an army of them.