Let's not beat around the bush here, this Saturday marks one of the UFC's most difficult cards to date. Plagued by injuries and last-minute fight shuffling, it would have been easy to excuse a less than stellar offering from Zuffa. Surprisingly enough, we instead get a card short on title bouts but big on intrigue with several critical bouts that could decide who gets to play on the main event stage in the future.
Always looking out for the Sherdog faithful.
Matt Hughes (Pictures) vs. Thiago Alves (Pictures)
Roughly 5,637 permutations later, the latest UFC main event comes in the form of surging contender Thiago "Pitbull" Alves taking on the original MMA farm boy, Matt Hughes (Pictures).
Obviously, this isn't your conventional main event considering there is no belt on the line and the short term future of the welterweight division having already been set with the announcement of an upcoming title bout between incumbent champion Georges St. Pierre (Pictures) and nouveau collegiate wrestling convert Jon Fitch (Pictures).
With that said, Alves knows he is next in line for a title shot while no one knows what the future holds for one of the modern UFC's original standard bearers. Someday when this fine sport has a proper hall of fame and we're all just a bunch of old codgers talking about the good old days, Matt Hughes (Pictures) (42-6) will be the center of many a wistful conversation. As of right now however, the only conversations about Hughes concern just how much he has left in the tank. Ten years and nearly 50 fights into an already legendary career, Hughes is no longer the division's alpha male thanks to Georges St. Pierre (Pictures) and a plodding decision win over Chris Lytle (Pictures). Doubts have surfaced about whether Hughes can successfully ply his wares against the next generation of talent that invaded the division he once ruled with an iron fist.
One of the leaders of that next generation is Alves (14-3) whose heavy metal-meets-Muay Thai style remains an anomaly in a division noted for dominant wrestlers like Hughes. While the road for Alves has been less than smooth -- losses to Spencer Fisher (Pictures) and Jon Fitch (Pictures) marred his early days in the UFC -- he has reeled off five straight wins in impressive fashion. None was more noteworthy than his last outing against perennial contender and quality Borat impersonator Karo Parisyan (Pictures). Cracking Parisyan's adamantium chin was enough of a shocker but Alves also showed he can stay on course against an opponent looking to pull a top-control special.
Enter Hughes, who built his entire UFC career taking his opponents down and bending them to his will like they were twisty straws. Unfortunately, years of sticking to his game plan makes Hughes predictable and those legs aren't as fresh as his last harvest. We already saw one monster wrestler of the past falter when Tito Ortiz (Pictures) took on Lyoto Machida (Pictures) and the same script applies here. Alves has the kind of striking that will keep Hughes from doing anything other than barreling straight in for a takedown.
That may seem like the smart move but it gives Alves the luxury of standing back in the pocket and loading up on strikes as Hughes struggles to close the gap. Even if Hughes manages a takedown, he'll have to corral Alves and score enough offense to keep the bout from going back to the feet. What's worse, Hughes will have to rinse and repeat for three rounds because his ground-and-pound has gradually lost its edge.
The edge on Alves' game is razor sharp and he has a better shot of landing that one big strike than Hughes does of controlling him for 15 minutes. Watch for Alves to create scrambles and eventually beat Hughes in his own home, the clinch, by landing the sort of knee that will have local maxillofacial surgeons scrambling to add Hughes to their client list.
Michael Bisping (Pictures) vs. Jason Day (Pictures)
Proof that one man's legal entanglement is another man's ticket to the big time, Jason Day (Pictures) has been slotted against Ultimate Fighter alumnus Michael Bisping (Pictures) thanks to Chris Leben (Pictures)'s ongoing episode of "Law & Order: UFC."
It's an unusual position for Day (17-5), who made his UFC debut less than two months ago. Then again, strolling into the UFC and steamrolling a highly regarded prospect like Alan Belcher (Pictures) will do wonders for your marketability. That and Day's willingness to take this bout on barely a month's notice have landed him in the evening's co-main event with the prospect of a title shot suddenly a very real possibility if he can get by his more pedigreed opponent.
Luckily, there will be no pre-fight comparison of genealogy trees and Day has the added benefit of coming into this fight with but a fraction of the pressure that accompanies Bisping every time he enters the octagon.
Everyone focuses on the upside of emerging from "The Ultimate Fighter" with a UFC contract in tow but Bisping (15-1) has seen the downside after garnering mixed reviews during his abbreviated run as a light heavyweight. Failing to develop into a world beater in his original weight class had many a fan down on Bisping but it was known from the very beginning that the Englishman simply lacked the size to compete with the ginormous muscle mounds that populate the division.
An impressive dissection of Charles McCarthy (Pictures) in his middleweight debut put Bisping back on the right track and considering how wide open the contender situation in the division is, the path to a title shot is fraught with far less peril in Bisping's new home. But Day proved in his bout with Belcher that he isn't shy about getting down to business come the opening bell. What you do have to wonder with Day is whether he can even begin to manage an encore against an opponent ready to return fire.
Either way, fistic fireworks should ensue early on but as the bout develops, look for Bisping's more varied style and superior movement to frustrate Day is a bit too upright and robotic. Don't be surprised if Bisping has to survive a hairy moment or two -- his modus operandi in the UFC -- but he's shown he can handle himself in a tight spot and come out better for it.
Day on the other hand will come out of this one worse for the wear after dropping a spirited but one-sided unanimous decision. You can all thank me later for not making a "Dooms" Day pun.
Marcus Davis (Pictures) vs. Mike Swick (Pictures)
On a main card loaded with interesting match-ups, a welterweight dustup between two "TUF" alumni may be the one that ends up stealing the show. While everyone expected Mike Swick (Pictures) (11-2) to one day light up the UFC with his super-charged take on the "run-n-gun" offense, no one -- and I do mean NO ONE -- had Marcus Davis (Pictures) at the top of their UFC fantasy league draft board.
Really, you can't blame anyone for writing off Davis (14-3) after his disastrous run on "The Ultimate Fighter" which ended with a loss to Melvin Guillard (Pictures) on the show's season finale. Ironically, that was the precise moment where things got interesting as Davis did something that far too few fighters with a UFC contract choose to do. He willingly walked away from MMA's juggernaut and retooled his game by fighting in small events under the watchful eye of the current trainer du jour, Mark DellaGrotte.
The results can not be argued with as Davis has turned into the division's dark horse thanks to a suddenly versatile and crowd-pleasing style that has netted him six straight wins under the UFC banner.
The original high-octane version of Swick seems to be a thing of the past as stiffer competition has created a more conservative version of the fighter once known for his go-for-broke stratagems. Not even dropping down to the welterweight division could bring back the Swick of old as his debut as a 170 pounder saw him spend 15 minutes stuffing Josh Burkman (Pictures)'s takedowns en route to an uninspired decision win. Standing back and landing the odd punch here and there while avoiding takedowns is not a luxury that Swick will enjoy against Davis who has no qualms about standing right in the pocket against dangerous strikers.
Of even greater concern for Swick is his loopy punching style, a major liability against a gifted counter-puncher like Davis who needs but one opening to end any fight abruptly. While taking down Davis may be a contingency plan for Swick, "The Irish Hand Grenade" has shown greatly improved wrestling and a legitimately dangerous grappling game to boot.
This is simply a bad style clash for Swick who doesn't have much to offer against opponents who are cerebral enough to zone in on his deficiencies. A more cerebral approach to MMA has been Davis' saving grace since returning to the UFC and that will guide him to another first round stoppage win in the organization that once let him walk out the door.