UFC 144 Preview: The Main Card

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Plenty has changed since the Ultimate Fighting Championship last ventured to Japan on Dec. 16, 2000. The promotion, now under the guidance of Zuffa, LLC, does bigger pay-per-view numbers and appeals to a wider audience than anyone who witnessed Tito Ortiz defeat Yuki Kondo inside the Differ Ariake more than a decade ago could have imagined.

Ortiz is still around, but the same cannot be said for Pride Fighting Championships, once the UFC’s chief rival. In a nod to the rich history of mixed martial arts, the UFC is finally returning to the Far East, bringing with it a super-sized seven-bout main card that includes a title fight, an adopted favorite son and more than enough of opportunities to express national pride.

Of chief interest is Frankie Edgar’s lightweight title defense against Ben Henderson, a bout that all but guarantees five rounds of high-energy action. While Edgar-Henderson has “Fight of the Year” potential, the arrival of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson might be even more highly anticipated by the natives who remember his Pride heyday. Jackson will take on talented wrestler Ryan Bader in the co-main event.

Here is a look at those bouts, as well as the rest of the main card, with analysis and picks.

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Sherdog Fantasy MMA: UFC 144 “Edgar vs. Henderson” Free Fan Pick’Em

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UFC Lightweight Championship
Frankie Edgar (14-1-1, 9-1-1 UFC) vs. Ben Henderson (15-2, 3-0 UFC)

The Matchup: A 3-0-1 record in four fights against B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard leaves no doubt that Edgar has earned his spot atop the lightweight heap, but the journey does not get any easier for “The Answer” against Henderson, a former WEC 155-pound titleholder.

On paper, this has all the makings of a five-round classic between two competitors who prefer a rapid pace and have the gas tanks to back it up. Edgar displayed tremendous resolve in his 2011 scraps with Maynard, rallying back from dire situations on both occasions to finish strong. While eight of Edgar’s 11 UFC appearances have gone to the judges, the New Jersey native was especially impressive against Maynard at UFC 136, where he stopped the Xtreme Couture Mixed Martial Arts product with strikes in the fourth frame.

Henderson has transitioned well to the UFC, taking out Mark Bocek, Jim Miller and Clay Guida since entering the promotion last year, but he has not faced a striker as talented as Edgar since he lost to Anthony Pettis in the WEC’s swan song in 2010. Miller was probably the most polished of the three opponents he has faced in the Octagon.

With that said, Henderson will need to apply his best assets against Edgar, whose boxing skills are backed by excellent timing and footwork. Henderson’s standup is improving, but where he really increases the tempo is in tie-ups and on the mat. There, “Smooth” applies pressure using his upper body strength as well as a flexibility that makes him nearly impossible to submit, and he is extremely dangerous in scrambles and transitions, too. As the level of competition has increased, Henderson has found himself going the distance more often, but his guillotine choke remains an ever-present weapon should Edgar make a mistake.

The Arizonan will be hard-pressed to match Edgar’s pace on the feet. The Ricardo Almeida Jiu-Jitsu representative’s use of movement and angles makes it difficult for wrestlers to close the distance and find openings for takedowns. He is also an excellent sprawler and scrambler, which helps him avoid precarious positions against larger foes. In his first meeting with Maynard in 2008, “The Bully” was able to take Edgar down nine times and control him en route to winning a unanimous decision. In their two subsequent fights, Edgar battled Maynard to a virtual stalemate in the wrestling department -- three takedowns apiece -- while demonstrating a good sense of when to change levels as Maynard moved forward with strikes.

Henderson is among the best in the sport at exploiting small openings to dictate the location of the fight, and his best chance lies in forcing clinches against the fence as Edgar darts in to land his quick right hand. If he can utilize dirty boxing and knees while muscling the champion against the cage, Edgar will slow down as the fight enters the championship rounds. If Henderson is content to stand with Edgar and counter with power punches, he will gradually be picked apart. While Edgar has proven susceptible to the well-placed uppercut or hook, he has also shown the ability to recover when hurt. Stringing together combinations will make it easier for Henderson to get the fight where he wants it.

The Pick: Edgar is primarily known for his boxing, but he will also mix in kicks to the legs and body to slow his opponent down. Meanwhile, Henderson will look to press forward and narrow the gap as soon as possible. However, Edgar will utilize movement and circle away when Henderson tries to trap him. The conditioning of both men will be lauded in the days leading up to the fight, but in rounds four and five, Edgar will be the fresher fighter and finish with a flourish to earn a unanimous decision.

Continue Reading » Next Fight: Quinton Jackson vs. Ryan Bader