UFC 115 Preview: The Main Card

I’ve gotten a lot of e-mail and tweets complaining about the quality of UFC 115. Allow me to say that all you complainers are crazy.

Every single last human being complaining about this card is crazy, and I wish you all get stuck in a time machine and end up living through the UFC of 1998.

The saner folk among us know that Saturday’s card may not be God’s gift to MMA fans, but it’s still a worthwhile block of violence for anyone purporting to enjoy this sport. With quality fighters like Rich Franklin, Paulo Thiago and Carlos Condit all involved in potentially make-or-break fights, there is no reason your evening should be spent doing anything but ignoring the outside world and watching some quality fisticuffs.

Prepare yourself for the entertainment to come with another round of crackpot ramblings and occasional insight courtesy of me, the same guy who really thought Darko Milicic would pan out.

Chuck Liddell vs. Rich Franklin

Thanks to Tito Ortiz’s achy-breaky neck, longtime company man Rich Franklin gets the task of taking on Chuck Liddell, who has set the Internet on fire with recent photos of him rocking a six-pack instead of his usual beer gut. Wise men won’t put any stock in the notion that abdominal muscles will cancel out his obvious physical degradation, however. Miraculous renaissances for aging fighters seem to be a Randy Couture monopoly.

It almost goes without saying that Franklin isn’t some 21-year-old fresh out of the genetic super-freak petri dish, but he has retained enough of his physical skills to remain a relevant fighter. Beyond that Franklin is a cerebral tactician who can pick apart one-dimensional opponents like Liddell -- a fighter almost entirely dependent on landing single power shots and blitzing for the finish. It does need to be noted, however, that Franklin’s beard won’t take well to Liddell’s power: His arsenal of fundamental skills and strategic savvy have been negated by a clean shot to the chin before.

Franklin has integrated that fact into his fighting style, as evidenced by recent bouts with Dan Henderson and Wanderlei Silva where he scored effectively with quick combinations upstairs and used his body kicks to control distance. Many fighters have used a similar strategy to great effect against Liddell. The most notable was Keith Jardine, who scored a mammoth upset over him at UFC 76. Since that bout Liddell’s feet have only gotten heavier, and that flat-footed fighting style more than anything is what makes him so vulnerable to opponents who can create angles with their footwork.

Angles have never been Liddell’s friend. He prefers cutting off the cage, squaring up and uncorking power shots. That won’t work well against Franklin, who has no qualms about jumping on the horse and also has the diversity of striking techniques to keep Liddell guessing. An old-school headhunter, Liddell is only effective when collapsing the pocket with strikes. Franklin has the kicks to work outside and, maulings by Anderson Silva aside, the clinch game to suck opponents in and score effectively.

The blunt truth is that any opponent willing to work around Liddell’s power is halfway home to a win, and Franklin is probably the last guy who is going to stand in front of him. The other truth about Liddell’s current self is that he can’t necessarily bank on winning those trench-war exchanges. His chin isn’t what it used to be. Watch Liddell’s fight with Wanderlei Silva and it becomes obvious that he knows his chin isn’t what it used to be and he is trying to be more cautious about initiating exchanges.

It’s essentially an identity crisis for Liddell. He has fought one way for his entire career and is trying to adapt to his own limitations and the perpetually evolving nature of MMA. Meanwhile Franklin has always been aware of his weaknesses and has a style designed to minimize them. That will shape this fight from the opening bell, leading to Franklin taking a spirited and well-deserved decision win.