The time has come to turn our attention to the undercard at UFC 106 “Ortiz vs. Griffin 2” this Saturday at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, as Spike TV will broadcast a preliminary doubleheader from the welterweight and middleweight divisions.
If the promise of two fit-for-primetime bouts does not entice you, consider Caol Uno, Brock Larson and George Sotiropoulos all potentially making cameo appearances.
Ben Saunders vs. Marcus Davis
The Breakdown: In the mutant shark tank that is the welterweight division, opportunities for advancement are few and far between, which makes this fight so critical for Davis and Saunders. Fringe contenders who already wasted chances to break the glass ceiling, this may be their last shot at becoming something more than gatekeepers to the title they covet.
If Saunders has any intention of making a move in the division, he has to learn from his loss to Mike Swick at UFC 99 and start using his kicks to control distance. The other option would be to use his boxing, which will get him a one-way trip to the canvas against Davis, who has developed into one of the most adroit punchers in the UFC.
Resisting the temptation to reach for the clinch will be equally important for Saunders, who simply cannot risk stepping inside Davis’ wheelhouse, especially when his rangy kicks are the ideal solution to the close-quarters concerns his foe poses. It sounds good on paper, but that remains a strategic nuance Saunders has yet to display, and Davis’ movement and understanding of angles makes him the far more intelligent striker in a fight that hinges more on savvy than skill.
The X-Factor: In a sport where gloves save more knuckles than jaws, having a heavy-duty beard has become the ultimate lifesaver, and neither man has one. Expect someone to get dropped sooner or later, and that raises the possibility of some unexpected mat work.
Such a scenario favors Davis, who has developed into a legitimately talented grappler, as evidenced by the collection of submissions to his name. While this appears to be a winnable fight for Saunders, it will require the kind of discipline he has yet to show.
* * *
The Bottom Line: Count on Saunders to come out looking for kicks, and count on Davis to respond with face-smashing counter-punches. Do not expect to see the second round, as Davis collapses Saunders with a highlight reel right hook.