The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday heads back to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for a second straight week, and this time around, it essentially does so with a one-fight card. That one fight comes in the UFC on ESPN 53 main event, where two former strawweights look to make an impact up a weight class, as ex-champion Rose Namajunas seeks her first win at 125 pounds against Amanda Ribas. There are some interesting matchups beyond that but nothing with particularly immediate stakes. Former top middleweight prospect Edmen Shahbazyan tries to right the ship against A.J. Dobson, and a bantamweight tilt pairing Payton Talbott with Cameron Saaiman features two high-upside talents. From there, a Billy Quarantillo appearances almost always results in a good time. Still, this definitely seems to be a card where the promotion wants to keep the powder dry for UFC 300.
Women’s Flyweights
#8 WP4P | Rose Namajunas (11-6, 9-5 UFC) vs. #8 WSW | Amanda Ribas (12-4, 7-3 UFC)ODDS: Namajunas (-250), Ribas (+205)
Namajunas’ flyweight debut was neither a success nor a failure, so the former strawweight champ gives 125 pounds a second go here. Namajunas was marked for stardom almost immediately upon her professional debut, earning the second win of her career with a flying armbar that was one of the best finishes of 2013. Beyond that, her stint on “The Ultimate Fighter” proved her to be a fascinating personality, constantly grappling with some mental struggles that would manifest throughout her career. Namajunas charged through “The Ultimate Fighter” house before losing the UFC’s inaugural strawweight title fight to Carla Esparza, but the expectation was that she would be back in the title picture shortly; and while she did get there, it was via a long and winding road. Namajunas did not keep a particularly active schedule, but upsetting the hype train of Paige VanZant and eking out a victory over Tecia Torres proved to be enough to have her on the fringes of title contention. Instead, she was unable to handle the consistent pressure of Karolina Kowalkiewicz, opening the worry that Namajunas might not have either the physical or mental strength to hold up against the 115-pound elite. Still, “Thug Rose” wound up being Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s top contender after just one more win, mostly due to Jedrzejczyk cleaning out the rest of the division. Namajunas’ struggles played a major part in the build-up, with the then-champion making it apparent that her plan was to mentally break her newest challenger. Instead, Namajunas put together the sharpest performance of her career and blew through Jedrzejczyk in a shade over three minutes. After winning a five-round war over Jedrzejczyk in an immediate rematch, it seemed like Namajunas was suddenly ready to establish herself as the new strawweight queen. However, she lost her belt in particularly brutal fashion against Jessica Andrade, getting dropped on her head for a slam knockout. That followed a first round that might have been the sharpest of Namajunas’ career—a dynamic that set the tone for her inconsistent performances over the next few years. She avenged the loss to Andrade a year later, then quickly knocked out Weili Zhang to win the title back in 2021. A rematch against Zhang saw her defend her title in a sloppy affair. Then came her second encounter with Esparza, one of the worst performances in mixed martial arts history that saw Namajunas bafflingly lured—or frightened—into inactivity. Zhang eventually won the title back, so it was a bit of a surprise when Namajunas’ return was announced at flyweight rather than against the strawweight champion that she had beaten twice before. Namajunas was apparently in search of a new challenge, and she looked solid against top flyweight contender Manon Fiorot. Namajunas looked capable of matching up with one of the UFC’s strongest 125-pounders physically; the only issue was Namajunas’ relative lack of striking volume, explained in part by her breaking a finger early in the fight. It is hard to entirely trust Namajunas, but the performance was good enough to suggest she could make an impact in her new division. She looks to prove that against Ribas, who herself has a lot to prove at 125 pounds.
Ribas also seemed marked for stardom early on in her UFC career. After waiting two years to make her UFC debut, the Brazilian was an absolute revelation with wins over Emily Whitmore and Mackenzie Dern, proving herself to be an immediate strawweight contender while also showing plenty of charisma. After more of a promotional push in 2020, the hope was that “Amandinha” could reach title challenger status come 2021. Instead, Ribas kicked off the year by getting knocked out against Marina Rodriguez. Since then, Ribas has mostly tread water, staying relevant but also hitting a clear ceiling, including during a move up to flyweight for three fights. That run, which consisted of a win over Viviane Araujo in between losses to Katlyn Cerminara and Maycee Barber, laid bare just how much of Ribas’ success depends on her being an effective bully. She was at enough physical parity to outwrestle and generally bully Araujo, but she was successfully neutralized by Cerminara and simply got outgunned by Barber before being stopped. What now appears to be a one-fight return to strawweight against Luana Pinheiro was not particularly pretty. Pinheiro outmaneuvered the former Jungle Fight champion quite easily on the feet before tiring and getting finished in the closing moments of the fight, but it was at least a win that established Ribas is better off at strawweight. That makes it a surprise that Ribas is back at 125 pounds here, albeit against a fellow former strawweight. Ribas is physical enough to make this fight interesting, particularly if Namajunas shows up in poor form, but this does look like the former strawweight champ’s fight to lose. Ribas’ combination of aggression and lack of defense leaves her open to eat some hard shots, and Namajunas seems more than capable of picking her off and landing some particularly brutal strikes once she gets the chance to warm up. The pick is Namajunas via third-round knockout.
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Ribas vs. Namajunas
Williams vs. Tafa
Shahbazyan vs. Dobson
Talbott vs. Saaiman
Quarantillo vs. Zalal
Padilla vs. Pajuelo
The Prelims