Preview: UFC on ESPN 40 Prelims

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas offers a six-fight undercard that should provide a solid amount of action. In the featured slot, Sam Alvey makes perhaps his last stand, as the much-maligned middleweight finishes out his contract and attempts to break a years-long winless streak against Michal Oleksiejczuk. The next bout down seems guaranteed to bring some entertainment value, with electric lightweight Terrance McKinney facing Erick Gonzalez. Beyond that, there are some other well-matched affairs. “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 29 winner Bryan Battle makes his welterweight debut against the dangerous Takashi Sato, and the show opens with two women’s battles that look relatively even on paper and should be important for everyone involved.

Now to the preview for the UFC on ESPN 40 prelims:

Middleweights

Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-5, 4-3 UFC) vs. Sam Alvey (33-17-1, 10-12-1 UFC)

ODDS: Oleksiejczuk (-560), Alvey (+430)

Winless in his last eight fights over four-plus years, it looks like Alvey is finally at his last chance to stay in the UFC. Already a well-traveled vet by the time he made his UFC debut in 2014, Alvey carved out a surprisingly successful niche for himself over the next few years: He would fight as often as possible, using the UFC’s international schedule as an excuse to get some paid vacations for him and his family, and manage to navigate his way through most of the middleweight division with an awkward but powerful counter-heavy style. Alvey always rode some thin margins—without the opportunity to blast his opponent with a big counter, he was more than content to turn things into an absolutely terrible staring match—and after a 2018 win over Gian Villante, the wheels came entirely off for “Smilin’ Sam.” First, his durability went, with knockout losses to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Jimmy Crute, and then it became apparent that Alvey had lost just enough of his reflexes and speed to render his usual style entirely ineffective. He did manage to take Da Un Jung to a draw in late 2020, but that has been sandwiched in between seven consecutive losses. To his credit, Alvey has tried to mix things up and lead more with an increased output, but nothing has turned the corner into actual success. Now on the last fight of his contract, Alvey gets his last gasp against Oleksiejczuk, who makes the long-overdue cut down to 185 pounds. Poland’s Oleksiejczuk figured to have a tough time in the UFC upon his debut in 2017, as most of his regional footage saw him absorb a ton of damage in the name of staging a comeback. However, that actually managed to work in the UFC for a good while, with Oleksiejczuk also showing some sharp and unorthodox striking that helped him score a few knockouts. Naturally, Oleksiejczuk became what he once exploited, pouring offense on his opponents until he tired himself out, suffering two straight losses to stifle most of his momentum. Oleksiejczuk has looked solid since but has been obviously undersized during his entire run at light heavyweight, particularly given that he has had some extra poundage he should be able to shed. It will be interesting to see how Oleksiejczuk looks in his new weight class, particularly since he leaned a bit on a speed advantage against heavier men; that will not be an issue against Alvey’s often-ponderous style. Given that Alvey’s entire game is built around the knockout and that Oleksiejczuk has had an impressive level of durability to date, this looks like a clear spot to shine for the Pole where the only issue would be if he has any chin issues with the additional weight cut. The pick is Oleksiejczuk via second-round knockout.

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McKinney vs. Gonzalez
Battle vs. Sato
Quinlan vs. Witt
McKenna vs. Granger
Silva vs. Egger