Preview: UFC Fight Night 238 ‘Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for a one-week pitstop with a show that has seen its fair share of troubles. Initially slated as the company’s debut in Saudia Arabia, UFC Fight Night 238 was apparently deemed unfit for that status and wound up back in the United States. While the battle between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev may be stretched thin as a headliner, its support on the main draw should at least make for an enjoyable viewing experience. It looks to be a big night for the UFC’s flyweight division, as uber-prospect Muhammad Mokaev tries to rise to title contention with a win over Alex Perez, and Steve Erceg attempts to prove that his breakout 2023 campaign was for real with a victory over Matt Schnell. Beyond that, the light heavyweight co-main event between Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro promises violence. Add in a bantamweight showcase for Umar Nurmagomedov, and it becomes a tight five-fight offering.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 238 “Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev” preview:

Heavyweights

#12 HW | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (13-5, 7-5 UFC) vs. Shamil Gaziev (12-0, 1-0 UFC)

ODDS: Gaziev (-148), Rozenstruik (+124)

This is clearly an instance where the UFC once again put heavyweights in the headlining spot by default, but it is a fun fight that serves as a potential breakout for Gaziev. Born in Dagestan and representing Bahrain, Gaziev scored a quick win on Dana White’s Contender Series in September, which fit in with most of his career. With one exception, Gaziev has gotten most of his work done via quick finish. Gaziev’s lone fight to go the distance, a split decision victory in 2022, showed some cause for concern going forward. Gaziev looked absolutely exhausted and was lucky his opponent was in similar form, but an impressive UFC debut also suggests that might not matter at the moment. Gaziev looked in the sharpest form of his career while putting away Martin Buday; and while the second-round finish did seem to come at the limits of Gaziev’s gas tank, taking apart a heavyweight as historically durable as Buday is a strong omen. Given that Gaziev is already 34 years old and with the heavyweight division’s constant need for new talent, it is not a shock to see him get rushed into a fight against Rozenstruik, who has settled in as the gatekeeper to the heavyweight elite.

Suriname’s “Bigi Boy” was one of the UFC’s breakout fighters in 2019, starting the year outside of the promotion before charging up the ladder with four straight wins over the course of 10 months to get into title contention. The last of those wins, a knockout of Alistair Overeem, showed the pros and cons of Rozenstruik’s counter-heavy striking style quite clearly. Rozenstruik was overly patient and got little done for the better part of 24 minutes, only to suddenly spring into action and close the show in the closing seconds of the fifth round. That limited but dangerous game has mostly led to his trading wins and losses with the Top 10 of the division, and this fight is essentially a coinflip that puts Rozenstruik’s usual dynamic on display. Gaziev has enough wrestling to take advantage of Rozenstruik’s subpar skills on the mat—and likely score a submission before the Russian tires out—but there is a decent chance he gets absolutely blasted while marching in to try and do so. The read is that Gaziev is too slow and defensively lax to stay safe here, though this should be over quickly in one-sided fashion no matter who wins. The pick is Rozenstruik via first-round knockout.

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Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Petrino vs. Pedro
Mokaev vs. Perez
Nurmagomedov vs. Almakhan
Erceg vs. Schnell
The Prelims