With UFC 281 looming, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to the UFC Apex for one more show before heading back to Madison Square Garden in New York. There is a strong one-two punch at the top of the UFC Fight Night 214 bill after some late shuffling. Brazilian strawweights take center stage in the headliner between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos, and the welterweight co-main event between Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez is legitimately compelling. Beyond that, there are some fights that are well-matched on paper but could go any number of ways in practice. Grant Dawson and Mark O. Madsen are interesting tests for one another, and Nathan Maness makes an intriguing gambit in his cut down to flyweight to oppose Tagir Ulanbekov.
Now to the UFC Fight Night 214 “Rodriguez vs. Lemos” preview:
Women’s Strawweights
#3 SW | Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2, 6-1-2 UFC) vs. #7 SW | Amanda Lemos (12-2-1, 6-2 UFC)ODDS: Rodriguez (-210), Lemos (+180)
Assuming she gets there, it looks Marina Rodriguez will have to take the long road towards a title shot. Then again, it was far from a guarantee that she would make it this far coming off the Brazilian edition of Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018. Rodriguez was obviously a talented striker, but the worry was that she would be either too one-dimensional or too unathletic to make her way up the UFC’s deepest women’s division. Rodriguez impressed through her first four UFC fights, though she managed the trick of going to two draws during that stretch, each of which highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of her game. She handled Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo on the feet, but both managed to bank a dominant round with their wrestling and subsequent control. Takedown defense remains Rodriguez’s clear weakness—it was responsible for her lone loss to Carla Esparza in 2020, though that was still a surprisingly game effort—but she has done well to shore up that part of her game, and in a few prominent spots, her reach and striking acumen has kept her opponents at bay enough to make wrestling a non-factor. With three straight wins and established as a main eventer, Rodriguez figured to be a top contender heading into 2022, though the year has gone a bit sideways on her. A surprisingly effective and aggressive version of Xiaonan Yan nearly took a decision from Rodriguez in March, and the combination of that subpar performance and Esparza surprisingly winning the title has gummed up the works a bit in terms of making her the obvious next challenger. As a result, Rodriguez still needs to work a bit to break into the strawweight elite, and she will be forced to hold serve against a tricky test in Lemos.
Lemos’ success came out of nowhere, particularly after a lost few years to kick off her UFC career. A 2017 signee, Lemos had a forgettable performance as a bantamweight in a loss to Leslie Smith, then spent two years on the shelf after failing a drug test. The UFC stuck by “Amandinha,” who surprisingly made her return down 20 pounds, and it quickly became apparent that the promotion’s patience would pay off, as she ran over Miranda Granger in her strawweight debut. From there, Lemos continued to prove herself as a dominant powerhouse with a penchant for first-round finishes—until the toughest test of her career against Angela Hill on the last card of 2021. It resulted in yet another controversial split decision involving Hill, but Lemos answered a lot of questions with her ability to find a second wind and stage a strong third round that won her the fight. The 2022 campaign has affirmed Lemos as dangerous but flawed. She did well in her first UFC main event against Jessica Andrade for three minutes until the former champion suddenly found a standing arm-triangle submission, then reversed that in July with a come-from-behind submission win over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. That all makes for an interesting pairing with Rodriguez, particularly since Lemos has the clear athletic advantage. Rodriguez has managed to avoid the few powerhouses at 115 pounds, so it is unclear how well she will be able to survive getting hulked around by Lemos in a grappling contest or eating some of the hardest punches of her career. The fact that Rodriguez tends to fight with a stalking style does lead to some worry that she will march her way right into the teeth of Lemos’ offense. Still, it is difficult to pick against Rodriguez in a five-round fight given Lemos’ struggles to blend pace and power over any length of time. As Waterson-Gomez showed, if Rodriguez feels inclined to pivot towards a more range-heavy style and attempts to pick Lemos apart, that could pay a ton of dividends without much need to adjust. This is certainly a risky fight, but the pick is Rodriguez via decision.
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Magny vs. Rodriguez
Sherman vs. Parisian
Ulanbekov vs. Maness
Dawson vs. Madsen
The Prelims