Women's Flyweights
Alexa Grasso (14-3) vs. Viviane Araujo (11-3)ODDS: Grasso (-215), Araujo (+185)
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Is everything finally coming together for Alexa Grasso? When the UFC seemed finally set to try and break into the Mexican market, Alexa Grasso figured to be a big part of the promotion's plans; just 23 years old at the time of her 2016 debut, Grasso doubled as both a reliably entertaining fighter and one of the strawweight division's top prospects outside of the UFC. But Grasso's UFC career at 115 pounds seemed to be a constant case of one step forward, one step back. After an impressive debut against Heather Jo Clark, Grasso surprisingly got outstruck by Felice Herrig in what figured to be a showcase spot. Then Grasso rebounded with a narrow win over Randa Markos, only to get blown out of the water by Tatiana Suarez. After a yearlong layoff due to a knee injury that only further dulled her momentum, Grasso once again went win-loss to cap off her strawweight career; she looked absolutely electric in a dominant win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, only to then lose a messy affair against Carla Esparza. But since moving up to flyweight in 2020, everything seems to have been unlocked for Grasso. Her divisional debut against Ji Yeon Kim was a workmanlike victory, but her subsequent win in 2021 over Maycee Barber was particularly promising; Grasso had some late issues once Barber decided to sell out on aggression, but the Mexican prospect put on an impressive showing in outworking and outwrestling one of the physically strongest fighters in her new division. It was over 13 months until Grasso eventually returned for a March bout against Joanne Wood, but that was another fight where Grasso showed a new dynamic to her game, this time quickly closing the show by taking Wood's back and ending the fight with a rear naked choke. Fighting up in weight - and, frankly, not facing standout wrestlers like Suarez and Esparza - has allowed Grasso to fight behind a much more physical and well-rounded game, and while injuries are still a concern, she's looked excellent enough that a title fight against Valentina Shevchenko is looming on the horizon. This marks Grasso's first UFC main event and a huge opportunity, though there's a risk for a setback against Viviane Araujo.
Brazil's Araujo has made an impressive UFC career out of an extremely last-minute opportunity. Back in 2019, bantamweight Talita Bernardo cycled through opponent after opponent until Araujo stepped in on three days notice; "Vivi" then turned that into a win via third-round knockout, made all the more impressive since she was a career strawweight fighting up two weight classes. Araujo then split the difference and settled in at flyweight, where she's been both quite successful and quite frustrating. Against a lesser athlete such as Alexis Davis, Montana De La Rosa or Roxanne Modafferi, Araujo can look like a dynamic terror, matching pace with her opponent while clearly separating herself as the harder hitter and often the stronger wrestler. But things have typically started to go south when Araujo finds much in the way of resistance or parity - Jessica Eye outboxed her without much issue, and Katlyn Chookagian successfully outmaneuvered her for the better part of three rounds. But her last fight, a May win over Andrea Lee, gave some hope that Araujo might be turning a corner at 35 years old - Araujo both came back from a rough and fast-paced first round to lean on her wrestling and wear out a physically stronger opponent over three rounds. That makes for a fun dynamic here, as two fighters historically best known for their striking are each coming off performances where they leaned much more on taking things to the mat, and this could be an evenly matched fight. Araujo's willingness to blitz could make this particularly interesting in the early going, as Grasso's typically been at her worst against her most aggressive opponents, whether they work in pursuit of their striking or their wrestling. But if this goes to the mat, Grasso has been the more venomous grappler, and she generally looks like the stronger and more practiced striker of these two fighters. Add in Araujo's issues when opponents can match her on speed and that Grasso figures to be the stronger fighter over five rounds and the Mexican should be the favorite here, even though Araujo's last performance could be a promising sign that foreshadows another big step forward here. The pick is Grasso via decision.
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