The UFC's March trip to London was one of the highlights of the year thus far, and the promotion looks to recapture that magic here. That includes having Tom Aspinall in the headlining position, as the British heavyweight looks for his second straight breakout win - after dispatching of Alexander Volkov last time, this time around he takes on Curtis Blaydes. Local favorites Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann each feature prominently as expected, and the rest of the main card is quite strong; Jack Hermansson gets an interesting test in attempting to hold serve against Chris Curtis, while light heavyweight has a huge night with Alexander Gustafsson attempting a comeback and Paul Craig looking to keep his unlikely unbeaten streak going.
Heavyweights
Curtis Blaydes (16-3, 1 Nc | 11-3, 1 NC UFC) vs. Tom Aspinall (12-2 | 5-0 UFC)Odds: Aspinall (-130), Blaydes (+110)
At some point the top of the heavyweight division got legitimately interesting, and this fight checks a lot of boxes: it's fascinating on paper, the stakes are high and it could result in the creation of a breakout star. That would be Aspinall, who main events for the UFC in London for the second straight time and looks to build on an amazingly impressive performance last time out. The Manchester native comes from a grappling background and pivoted to boxing for a few years before returning to mixed martial arts in 2019, at which point he had a short path to the UFC; after two wins lasting less than two and a half minutes combined, Aspinall got the call. And upon hitting the Octagon, Aspinall mostly picked up where he left off with first-round knockouts of Jake Collier and Alan Baudot, leading to Aspinall's toughest UFC bout to date against Andrei Arlovski. Arlovski didn't put Aspinall in much trouble, but is the only UFC opponent of Aspinall's to survive the first round - after a round of hard fighting, Aspinall appeared to tire a bit, but was immediately able to break out his wrestling and score a submission early in the second. After another quick win over Sergey Spivak, Aspinall got tabbed to headline the March card from London against Alexander Volkov, which figured to at least be a tough enough test to answer a ton of questions about the depth of Aspinall's game - if nothing else, Volkov is well-rounded and durable, making him rarely an easy out. But that's just what Aspinall did; Volkov had little answer once Aspinall got his wrestling going, and the Brit ended the night with a straight armbar in a shade under four minutes. At some point, some issues in Aspinall's game figure to be exposed, and Blaydes is the next opponent to step up to the task and attempt to succeed - or fail miserably and in short order.
Blaydes has lived up to most of the considerable potential he had upon his 2016 UFC debut, so it's both frustrating and surprising that he's never been able to thread the needle towards becoming the UFC's top heavyweight contender. An absolutely massive human, "Razor" came to the UFC as a standout wrestler and leaned on those skills to maul his opponents; rarely a one-shot knockout artist, Blaydes would just wear out or pound out his opponents through ugly wars of attrition. For a while, Francis Ngannou was the only one capable of derailing Blaydes, damaging Blaydes enough to cause a doctor stoppage in Blaydes's UFC debut and then scoring a 45-second knockout in a 2018 rematch. But Blaydes has kept rebounding well, with his 2020 win over Junior dos Santos serving as a bit of a breakout; dos Santos was obviously past his prime, but it was impressive to see Blaydes - once a subpar striker - clearly win the fight and score a second-round knockout entirely on the feet, showing off an impressive amount of craft. Blaydes seemed well on his way to a long-overdue title shot by the time 2021 rolled around, but then came his main event against Derrick Lewis - Blaydes was handily winning on the feet but decided to shoot for a takedown, immediately getting blasted with a Lewis counter uppercut that felled Blaydes in one blow. That's left Blaydes in a weird spot as a heavyweight - he's a typically durable fighter who can hold his own offensively against just about everyone, but there's a constant concern that the nature of heavyweight fights means he's suddenly going to eat a knockout blow, now that it's happened multiple times in high-profile fights. But at the same time, it's taken possibly the two hardest hitters in the sport to do so - so is the issue overblown? As important as this fight is for Aspinall, it could also be a huge proving point for Blaydes, as Aspinall's not only a sharp knockout threat, but also has enough size and reach to keep that threat constant for as long as this fight is on the feet. And if this fight gets to the ground - likely via a Blaydes takedown, since it seems unlikely Aspinall can budge the American - it makes for a fascinating dynamic, given that Aspinall has some grappling chops, though he hasn't had to show much from the bottom and certainly not against a powerhouse like Blaydes. If Blaydes can get to his wrestling early and often, he could turn this into a signature mauling - particularly given that Aspinall's cardio is still unproven and didn't look all that amazing against Arlovski - but there's going be a constant sense of danger up until the point that Blaydes clearly wears Aspinall out. Another big issue is that Blaydes likes to test out his striking a bit before going for those takedowns, which seems like a terrible idea here and may be just the type of opening Aspinall needs to score another career-defining win. This is a coin flip and an absolutely fascinating one given how quickly things can turn for either man, but it does feel like things are lining up just right for another Aspinall victory; the pick is Aspinall via first-round knockout.
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Hermansson vs. Curtis
Pimblett vs. Leavitt
Krylov vs. Gustafsson
McCann vs. Goldy
Craig vs. Oezdemir
The Prelims