Preview: UFC Fight Night 203 ‘Santos vs. Ankalaev’

The UFC's return to the Apex sees the promotion put on its strongest Fight Night event in a while, and doubly; the promotion mostly got the main card right. Past the light heavyweight main event between Thiago Santos and Magomed Ankalaev, there are some meaningful bouts featuring ranked fighters. Marlon Moraes looks to stay relevant at bantamweight by turning back top prospect Yadong Song, and Alex Caceres looks to continue his current winning streak against top prospect Sodiq Yusuff. A bit further down, Terrance McKinney steps in on a two-week turnaround to try and earn a big win over Drew Dober, and even the opener has some implications, as former kickboxing great Alex Pereira looks to continue charging his way up the middleweight rankings in a banger of a bout against Bruno Silva.

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Light Heavyweights

#5 | Thiago Santos (22-9) vs. #6 | Magomed Ankalaev (15-1)
Odds: Ankalaev (-525), Santos (+385)

Thiago Santos is at least coming off a win for the first time in a few years, but it's unclear how relevant the former light heavyweight title challenger is at this point in time. Santos's UFC success was far from guaranteed - he was a raw middleweight prospect brought in as a late replacement in 2013 - but "Marreta" quickly carved out a niche as one of the most violent finishers in the sport, owing mostly to his dynamic kicking game. But for as terrifying as Santos could be in his wins, there was always a sense that he could be taken out of his game by opponents who could steel themselves and wade through his power; Eric Spicely is the most stark example, but Gegard Mousasi and David Branch also found success crashing into Santos and swamping him in close quarters. The Branch loss in April of 2018 was the impetus for Santos to move up to light heavyweight, a choice that paid immediate dividends - in less than a year, Santos had established himself as the top contender in the division. In a division ripe for some changeover, Santos followed the lead of former middleweight victim Anthony Smith and quickly charged his way up the ladder, with his March 2019 win over Jan Blachowicz - which has aged particularly well - setting him up for his shot at Jon Jones. There's an alternate universe where Santos became light heavyweight champion, but as it is he narrowly lost a split decision - even after suffering a major knee injury in the second round, the threat of Santos's powerful kicking game was enough to keep the then-champion at range and turn things into an even fight. Since returning from that injury at the tail end of 2020, Santos has struggled to recapture his previous momentum, with his strongest performance coming in his return fight, a back-and-forth bout against current champ Glover Teixeira that saw Santos fall victim to a third-round stoppage. Santos's two 2021 bouts against Aleksandar Rakic and Johnny Walker were strange affairs; both opponents were content to stay patient and engage Santos in a range kickboxing contest, and at this point Santos doesn't seem to have much taste for forcing the issue. The result was two ugly fights, but interminable as they were, Santos did at least get the nod against Walker to stay somewhat in the title contention picture. But new blood is still rising in the light heavyweight division, and Magomed Ankalaev is the next man to step up and try and knock Santos down the ladder.

Ankalaev seems to have spent the balance of his UFC career trying to make up for his debut, one of the crazier upsets in UFC history. Ankalaev came into the UFC in 2018, advertised as someone who could immediately make a run towards title contention. And for about 14 and a half minutes of his fight against Paul Craig, Ankalaev was living up to that reputation. But then Craig clamped on a desperation triangle choke that somehow worked, leading to Ankalaev tapping with one second left in the fight, saving Craig's UFC career and leaving Ankalaev with a hole to dig out of. But Ankalaev has been undefeated since, with most of those wins coming in particularly clean fashion, winning four of five via knockout heading into 2021. By default, Ankalaev prefers to fight at a slower pace, but his two wins over Ion Cutelaba showed that the Russian can hold his own in a brawl if forced to, and his signature brutal ground-and-pound hasn't even been much of a factor in his UFC career to date. 2021 saw Ankalaev get the necessary wins to get into title contention, though they did drive home just how much he likes to dictate the terms of his fights; Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir each brought various levels of aggression, and that did seem to nullify some of Ankalaev's best weapons, even if both were clear Ankalaev wins. Looking at the division, Ankalaev is firmly one of the leaders of this new generation of young blood taking over at 205 pounds, and he's likely to drive that home even further with a win over Santos. This is definitely the Russian's fight to lose, though the worry is that this may continue the trend of Santos fights disappointing greatly in terms of action; again, Ankalaev prefers things at a controlled pace, and Santos seems content to match that if that's all his opponent presents. Hopefully, at some point someone forces the issue, and there's a decent chance of that happening; slow-paced as he can be, Ankalaev does apply pressure, and whoever winds up losing the first few rounds should be motivated to try and make something happen. And at that point, if there isn't a clean knockout, Ankalaev should be able to implement his wrestling and start pouring on some fight-ending offense; the pick is Ankalaev via third-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » Moraes vs. Song