Preview: UFC 286 ‘Edwards vs. Usman 3’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday shifts back to pay-per-view on just a two-week turnaround, making its return to the O2 Arena in London with a strong five-match main card. The UFC 286 main event was inevitable as soon as Leon Edwards landed the kick of a lifetime and wrested the welterweight title from Kamaru Usman in August, and “Rocky” defends the crown in an immediate rematch on home soil. Beyond that, the major theme involves potential contenders looking to break out: Rafael Fiziev and Roman Dolidze could get into the title mix in their respective divisions with wins over Justin Gaethje and Marvin Vettori, while top women’s flyweight prospect Casey O’Neill returns from an injury layoff to take on a stout veteran test in Jennifer Maia. Throw in a promising welterweight pairing between Gunnar Nelson and Bryan Barberena, and this shapes up to be a solid show.

Now to the UFC 286 “Edwards vs. Usman 3” preview:

UFC Welterweight Championship

#4 P4P | Leon Edwards (20-3, 12-2 UFC) vs. #5 P4P | Kamaru Usman (20-2, 15-1 UFC)

ODDS: Usman (-245), Edwards (+205)

It has been seven months, but Edwards’ championship win is still a bit of a shock. Edwards certainly took the long road to a title shot, as “Rocky” was fighting an uphill battle during his UFC career from the jump. Advertised as an electric knockout artist, Edwards found himself stifled by the aggressive wrestling of Claudio Silva and dropped his UFC debut in 2014. While 2015 was a bit of a bounce-back year, particularly thanks to an eight-second knockout of Seth Baczynski, Edwards’ momentum was stifled again by an inopportune loss, this time against Usman, then a fellow contender and future champion. From there, Edwards went on to become one of the UFC’s best-kept secrets, reinventing his approach behind a strong clinch game and grinding out wins on low-profile cards in Europe until a headlining spot against Donald Cerrone in 2018. Even though it was another under-the-radar card that Edwards was featured on, this time out of Singapore, it still figured to serve as a spot where the Brit could break out. Instead, it essentially set the tone for Edwards’ frustrating time among the welterweight elite. Edwards put in a workmanlike performance to earn a decision win that was almost immediately forgotten. Most of the subsequent talk centered on Cerrone fighting through illness to put on a game performance in the latter stages of his career. Edwards did not even wind up headlining the UFC’s next card in the United Kingdom, earning co-main event duty in a win over Gunnar Nelson to kick off his 2019 campaign; this time, there was some discussion of Edwards following the event, even if it mostly involved a backstage confrontation with headliner Jorge Masvidal. The hope was that Edwards could parlay that into a grudge match that could earn him a win and some steam as a promotable fighter, but Masvidal instead pivoted to bigger things while the Team Renegade star was left to headline a card against Rafael dos Anjos. That fight once again wound up in a clear Edwards win that did not get anyone particularly excited. At that point, it was apparent that Edwards’ style favored safety over all else, and while he was putting together one of the stronger resumes at 170 pounds, there was no spark that got people clamoring for a title shot. From there, the fates seemingly conspired to make sure Edwards would not gain any promotional momentum. A main event in London opposite Tyron Woodley was part of the first card cancelled by the pandemic in 2020, and Edwards was essentially frozen out of fighting thanks to travel restrictions in his native England. Once Edwards looked set to return, he was put in a series of risky matchups with little reward, first against rising prospect Khamzat Chimaev and—once those plans were scuttled—then against divisional stalwart Belal Muhammad in a matchup of the most underrated fighters in the weight class. Edwards looked set to announce himself with a strong comeback performance, but what looked like a win turned into a no contest thanks to an errant eye poke, leaving his career without much momentum once again. Yet somehow, this all was enough for Edwards to wind up facing Nate Diaz in a five-round pay-per-view fight—an unexpected gift that figured to finally be the high-profile showcase that could vault him into title contention. Instead, it became the most stunning example yet of how Edwards could continue to succeed while seemingly moving backwards in his career. He once again clearly won a decision behind a safe performance, yet managed to get clipped in the final minute of the fight, leading most of the discussion to center on how Diaz would have won the fight if given a bit more time. Even if things went about as poorly as possible for Edwards, he was still able to wait things out and finally get his title shot against Usman in August; and while there was some intrigue given that both men were undefeated since their first meeting in 2015, it felt more like Edwards was earning the opportunity by default as everyone waited for more interesting options. Edwards’ long path to a title shot made his performance during most of the fight frustrating. The two fought evenly for a little over a round, after which Usman clearly took over. It was an impressively well-rounded showing for Usman, but by the third and fourth rounds, it was most notable for exactly how flat Edwards looked. Whether it was the altitude of Salt Lake City, a lack of confidence or just years of ingrown patience as a fighter, Edwards seemed content just to survive and let Usman coast to a decision win. Then Edwards uncorked a kick to the head for what might be the most stunning comeback in mixed martial arts history. With 56 seconds remaining in the fight, Usman was unconscious on the mat and Edwards was suddenly the UFC’s welterweight champion. It was an all-time moment. Having pulled off one of the unlikeliest wins in recent memory, Edwards’ first task is naturally having to turn around and do it again. On the plus side, he at least gets a home game of sorts for this rubber match against Usman.

In contrast to Edwards’ long and winding road to championship glory, Usman’s rise was notable for exactly how clean it was. Having essentially won his season of “The Ultimate Fighter” right before the first fight against Edwards, “The Nigerian Nightmare” was a top prospect immediately upon his UFC debut, mostly thanks to an absolutely crushing wrestling game. Usman overpowered opponent after opponent on the ground without much trouble, breaking things up by successfully hunting a quick and brutal knockout of Sergio Moraes in 2017, seemingly only to prove the point that he could hold his own on the feet if needed. After that, Usman pivoted back to wrestler extraordinaire, including in what turned into a one-sided championship victory over Woodley once he established himself as the stronger fighter. From there, Usman continued to prove himself as a versatile performer with a dominant title reign, kicking things off with his first defense against Colby Covington. The fight figured to be two powerful wrestlers battling for supremacy, but both men decided to throw down for the better part of five rounds. Up until that point, Usman’s striking had looked well-practiced but still a bit mechanical; there, it was a natural and complete performance that ended with Usman breaking Covington’s jaw shortly before the final horn. Usman then made more of a name for himself with a grinding win over Masvidal amid the chaos of the pandemic and the UFC’s first trip to Fight Island, which set up what can be considered a breakout 2021 campaign, even with his already being clearly established. Former training partner Gilbert Burns put Usman in some early trouble before the champion turned things around for a knockout. He then essentially got to wind up the year playing his greatest hits. He absolutely ran over Masvidal in a rematch, then earned a decision victory in a rematch against Covington. The Covington rematch did raise some concerns that Usman was becoming technical to a fault, abandoning the pressure that made things fully click in his best performances. Even if Usman was cruising to a victory before his sudden knockout loss to Edwards, it is hard to say those worries were completely unfounded, as it was a slower performance than the norm. While conventional wisdom is that Edwards’ win was a bit of a fluke and will lead to Usman winning the belt back, that trendline does make things a bit more interesting, particularly given how the Englishman’s upset may affect his own performance. Their last fight was close whenever Edwards had enough confidence to consistently throw his weapons, and having already slayed the proverbial dragon once, there is a chance that could embolden him to a much more complete and consistent performance even without another knockout win. However, that is all conjecture, and that last fight did establish that Usman—at least as of August—is the more consistent fighter and can use his wrestling as a failsafe to control the fight more often than not. Edwards would not quite shock the world again if he pulled this one out, but the pick is still Usman via decision.

Jump To »
Edwards vs. Usman
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Nelson vs. Barberena
O’Neill vs. Maia
Vettori vs. Dolidze
The Prelims