The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday returns to Australia for the first time since 2019 and does so with a top-heavy lineup. Thankfully, the top two fights are good enough to validate the entire affair. In the UFC 284 main event, featherweight champion and pound-for-pound great Alexander Volkanovski moves up to 155 pounds for what might be his toughest challenge yet, as he takes on freshly crowned lightweight titleholder—and fellow top pound-for-pound fighter—Islam Makhachev in one of the most interesting matchups possible at the moment. In the co-headliner, Volkanovski’s usual stomping grounds at 145 pounds look to crown an interim champion with a showdown between Yair Rodriguez and Josh Emmett that seems guaranteed to bring violence. Beyond that, hometown boy Jack Della Maddalena gets a big test against Randy Brown at welterweight, and there are some bouts that got called into main card duty after some late scratches. Justin Tafa takes on Parker Porter and Jimmy Crute faces Alonzo Menifield, and while they may not carry the highest stakes, they should at least provide some fun.
UFC Lightweight Championship
#2 P4P | Islam Makhachev (23-1, 12-1 UFC) vs. #1 P4P | Alexander Volkanovski (25-1, 12-0 UFC)ODDS: Makhachev (-365), Volkanovski (+300)
In the end, UFC 280 felt more like a coronation for Makhachev than anything else. A longtime friend and training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev came to the UFC as an assumed future title contender in 2015. He is not quite an elite athlete like Nurmagomedov, but he brought his own physical force to the table while also being more technically sound than the former lightweight champion. Despite that background, it still took a surprisingly long while for Makhachev’s UFC career to really get going, in part thanks to a shocking knockout suffered against Adriano Martins, who took advantage of a rare moment of over-aggression and knocked him out cold. Whether it was a conscious effort to slowly build Makhachev or just a matter of circumstance, the Dagestani was not much of a factor for the next few years, grinding out decisions on the undercard for the better part of an inactive schedule and only getting more high-profile bouts once the UFC started focusing on cards in Russia and Abu Dhabi, circa 2019. While 2020 was tabbed to be a breakout year for Makhachev, it instead got derailed due to injury. Upon Makhachev’s comeback in 2021, the march to the title was on. Issues on his opponents’ side scrapped some juicy potential matchups against Rafael dos Anjos and Beneil Dariush, but Makhachev rose to the moment against whoever was in front of him. Wins over Drew Dober and Thiago Moises were a bit workmanlike on the way to late submissions, but Makhachev absolutely blew through Dan Hooker and Bobby Green to announce his arrival as a contender. That set Makhachev up for a title fight against Charles Oliveira at the aforementioned UFC 280 card in October. It was a tantalizing matchup on paper between Oliveira’s grappling threats and Makhachev’s crushing wrestling. In practice, it was a masterful and one-sided win for Makhachev, who met Oliveira’s aggression head-on and essentially refused to fear the Brazilian's ground game, scoring a second-round submission without much issue. Given Makhachev’s path to the title, there were plenty of interesting options at 155 pounds for his first title defense, but instead, he has chosen to go off the board in search of greatness. After his win, he called out Volkanovski, and soon after, the fight was on.
It was easy to overlook Volkanovski when he first hit the UFC. He had put together a dominant record on the Australian scene on the back of his wrestling and grappling, but the UFC’s history was littered with prospects out of the region who simply could not make that game work at the highest level. However, within a few fights, it became apparent that “Alexander The Great” was clearly an exception to that rule who, if nothing else, was durable and hard-nosed enough to win a war of attrition. A breakout 2018 campaign saw Volkanovski earn wins over Jeremy Kennedy, Darren Elkins and Chad Mendes to mark himself as a contender, but it was his 2019 victory over Jose Aldo that served as his true breakout as an elite fighter. Seemingly out of nowhere, Volkanovski broke out a feint-heavy striking approach that managed to neutralize one of the greatest fighters of all-time over 15 minutes. Since then, Volkanovski has been unimpeachable. Despite his squat frame, there are not many traces left of the bruising wrestler who came into the UFC, with Volkanovski now plying his trade as one of the most adaptable strikers the sport has ever seen. Volkanovski’s title win over Max Holloway to cap 2019 kicked off a trilogy over the ensuing three years that potentially matched the two best fighters in the sport. In the end, there was no question about who was the better man. By fight number three, Volkanovski had absorbed enough information to lay an all-timer of a beating on Holloway over five rounds, a performance that has to rank among the all-time greats in terms of sheer dominance given the level of competition. Past that, Volkanovski’s reign has seen a complete dissection of Chan Sung Jung and a fight that would have gone similarly against Brian Ortega if not for one moment, where the Californian clamped on what would have been a fight-ending guillotine against most men. Instead, it was a career-defining moment for Volkanovski, who managed to survive certain defeat and pick up right where he left off. There are still fresh opponents for Volkanovski at 145 pounds, but honestly, it does not feel like there is much of a challenge left for the champion in his current form. As a result, the time is as right as ever for Volkanovski to try and earn another all-time great win against Makhachev.
Makhachev is clearly the rightful favorite. Sometimes, these cross-divisional superfights just serve as a reminder of why weight classes exist, and there is a clear possibility this falls into that camp. Volkanovski is on the small end even for his own weight class, and Makhachev’s style is built to leverage any advantages in terms of physicality. That could make this fight a wrap, particularly since there figures to be some wrestling exchanges at some point. Makhachev, however, may not press the issue. Since the Martins fight, he has been much more patient in terms of picking his spots to get his takedown game rolling. Even so, if Makhachev theoretically sold out in the name of sheer aggression to get his hands on the Aussie, it is not clear if Volkanovski could even scare him off from trying. At any rate, for as long as this is on the feet, it is clearly Volkanovski’s fight to lose even with the size difference. Makhachev’s striking game is solid, but it is almost entirely a means to an end in order to get to his wrestling. It lacks the level of depth and adaptability that Volkanovski has shown thus far, even before factoring in the speed advantage that the 145-pound champion should bring to the table. Again, this all comes down to the wrestling matchup and Volkanovski’s ability to survive. Unfortunately, there is not much evidence to go on. Volkanovski just has not fought many wrestlers during his time as an elite featherweight, and while he has had trouble against Mendes and had to neutralize Elkins, those are both much different challenges at a time when he was also a much less thoughtful and well-rounded fighter. If Volkanovski can somehow neutralize Makhachev’s wrestling at some point, he could blow this fight wide open. Beyond his base striking advantage, Makhachev is also unproven as a five-round fighter at any sort of pace, and it is unclear how he would react if things start to go off the rails to any great extent. There is also the chance that this fight winds up in some sort of murky middle ground that does not serve either man well, where Volkanovski brings enough strategizing and adaptability to the table to survive but still struggles to deal with a size and strength disadvantage. Makhachev has the potential margin of error that he may just need one takedown per round to lock things down the rest of the way in an ugly fight where his size leads him to victory without many impressive moments. At the end of the day, this fight comes down to two questions, neither of which figure to be answered until the cage door closes. Is Volkanovski enough of a brickhouse at 155 pounds that he can lock horns with Makhachev, and can possibly the most adaptable fighter in the history of the sport survive long enough to find the openings that can solve his toughest problem yet? Even with a solid chance that this is a Makhachev rout, Volkanovski has earned the benefit of the doubt. Who knows how he does it, but the pick is Volkanovski via decision.
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Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Rodriguez vs. Emmett
Della Maddalena vs. Brown
Tafa vs. Porter
Crute vs. Menifield
The Prelims