Welterweights
Alex Morono (21-7, 10-4 UFC) vs. Matthew Semelsberger (10-3, 4-1 UFC)ODDS: Semelsberger (-165), Morono (+140)
After years as an under-the-radar action fighter, it's been nice to see Morono turn that into some more high-profile success. Far from a gifted athlete, Morono makes up for his lack of physical skills with a combination of smart gameplanning and sheer aggression; "The Great White" may not always be technically pretty, but he'll consistently attack his opponent's weaknesses and put together either some crafty wins or fun back-and-forth fights. Morono's also been helped by his willingness to step in on short notice; that earned him a big-name shot against Anthony Pettis at the very end of 2020, and got Morono his highest-profile win to date over Donald Cerrone in May of last year. That kicked off an undefeated 2021 over three fights for Morono, and he returns to his home state of Texas here to take on Semelsberger. Maryland's Semelsberger comes from the opposite end of the spectrum, as he's an impressive athlete who was very much on the raw side upon getting the UFC call in 2020. But "Semi The Jedi" has impressed thus far despite his lack of seasoning; wins over Jason Witt and Carlton Minus lasted a combined 31 seconds, and the two times Semelsberger has been taken into deeper waters, he's maintained his gas tank while looking to press his physical advantages. Morono's probably too far of a step up for Semelsberger at the moment, but the Marylander does have a clear path to victory, as Morono takes a while to hit a groove and get warmed up, leaving open the possibility that Semelsberger can spark him out for another sub-minute victory. But that risk aside, Morono's ability to swarm his opponents and build as the fight goes on should turn this into a more one-sided fight as things go on, even if Semelsberger figures to be there for all 15 minutes; the pick is Morono via decision.
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