The Ultimate Fighting Championship has clearly stacked its numbered events since fans returned a little over a year ago, and UFC 274 on Saturday at the Footprint Center in Phoenix is no exception. The show will see local product Justin Gaethje challenge Charles Oliveira for the lightweight title in one of the most potentially exciting bouts the promotion can put together, and the main event gets some strong support in the form of Rose Namajunas’ strawweight title defense against Carla Esparza—the woman who happened to beat “Thug Rose” in the UFC’s inaugural championship fight at 115 pounds. Beyond that, there is a clear focus on name value with some high-profile vets in action. Michael Chandler takes on Tony Ferguson in a bit of a cruel pairing for the fading “El Cucuy,” while a Mauricio Rua-Ovince St. Preux rematch and a first-time Donald Cerrone-Joe Lauzon clash look even enough that they might still be entertaining at this late stage of everyone’s careers. If not, the top two fights alone figure to make this a must-watch affair.
UFC Lightweight Championship
C | Charles Oliveira (32-8, 20-8 UFC) vs. #1 LW | Justin Gaethje (23-3, 6-3 UFC)ODDS: Oliveira (-165), Gaethje (+145)
It is difficult to say which has been the wilder ride: Oliveira’s path to the UFC’s lightweight title or his reign now that “Do Bronx” has championship gold. Oliveira burst onto the scene as a 20-year-old in 2010, racking up impressive submissions over Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero to immediately mark himself as a top prospect. That caused the UFC to rush him into one-sided losses against Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone that seemed to make Oliveira a cautionary tale as far as how the promotion’s aggressive matchmaking can destroy a talented prospect’s confidence. Oliveira’s grappling skill remained absolutely electric, but even during his more successful stretches, he remained plagued by a sense of unreliability, whether it was constant weight misses or his tendency to completely crumble against adversity at certain points in his fights. A 2019 victory against David Teymur—the fourth stop on Oliveira’s current 10-fight winning streak—seemed to be a bit of a turning point. Oliveira suffered a series of eye pokes that would have mentally derailed him earlier in his career, but he instead steeled himself and scored yet another submission. Eventually, a December 2020 win over what is now clearly a faded version of Tony Ferguson set Oliveira up to fight Michael Chandler for the vacant lightweight strap; and it figured to be a huge test for Oliveira. Chandler’s ridiculous horsepower and aggression had historically been exactly the type of approach to obliterate Oliveira early and without much issue. Indeed, Oliveira nearly got finished almost immediately, but he fought through adversity for an absolutely wild five-plus minutes, giving up tons of momentum changes in multiple phases until the Brazilian kicked off the second round with a knockout win. It was much the same story in Oliveira’s December title defense against Dustin Poirier. Oliveira absorbed a beating early but is now suddenly unbreakable mentally. He staged another comeback, this time securing a standing rear-naked choke for the win in the third round. If nothing else, Oliveira’s title reign has been a success in providing some of the highest-level wild violence the sport has seen. That is even before facing the man whose whole deal is violence: his challenger here in Gaethje.
A former collegiate wrestler, Gaethje came to prominence in World Series of Fighting, where he quickly earned a name as one of the most violent men in the sport. Gaethje had a relatively simple approach of charging down his opponents and trying to score a knockout while shelling up defensively. Even if opponents at the WSOF level could see Gaethje coming, they could not do anything to stop him, as “The Highlight” would rely on his unbreakable nature to come out on top in some brutal wars of attrition. Gaethje kept that reputation going in his UFC debut—a wild win over Michael Johnson that saw him nearly get knocked out multiple times in one of the best fights of the year—but then the worry became that he was hitting the UFC just as his body was betraying him. Poirier and Eddie Alvarez were each able to outmaneuver and break down Gaethje as he attempted to pressure, and with the former WSOF champion suffering stoppage losses in each case, it was unclear how he would fare going forward. As it turns out, he is doing quite well. With just an extra bit of thought behind his aggressive approach, Gaethje was able to spend the remainder of 2018 and all of 2019 nuking some opponents before laying a 24-minute beating on Ferguson to earn an interim title, which in turn set him up for a fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Gaethje figured to be Nurmagomedov’s toughest test to date, so it is a testament to the Russian’s all-time great status that he made the Arizona native look like easy work in what looks to be his final fight. After a year-plus layoff, Gaethje picked right back up where he left off, squaring off with Chandler in November for an all-time great war that saw both men try to destroy each other for 15 minutes. Gaethje is clearly one of the best lightweights alive and one of the most violent fighters in the sport’s history, so it is a pleasure to see him once again fight someone else who fits that description—and with a belt on the line, to boot.
The safest predictions for this fight are madness and violence, and from there, it is basically anyone’s guess. Oliveira seems to be the one who will force things early, and from there, it is off to the races. If Oliveira’s recent fights portend anything, it is that the champion will likely find himself nearly getting finished. After that, who knows? This could be the fight where things even out for Oliveira and it gets stopped before he can stage a comeback, or he can get right back on his horse and start charging Gaethje down and start the madness once again. Gaethje’s leg kicks should provide a weapon to slow Oliveira down, but that is provided the fight gets particularly far. This should be another Oliveira fight with repeated exchanges that result in things being over sooner rather than later. This one is more about the action than the result, and while Gaethje could just make this quick work, Oliveira has earned the benefit of the doubt to somehow come back from the brink of destruction once again.
FEELY'S PREDICTION: The pick is Oliveira via second-round submission.
Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Namajunas vs. Esparza
Chandler vs. Ferguson
St. Preux vs. Rua
Cerrone vs. Lauzon
UFC 274 Prelims