Preview: UFC 272 ‘Covington vs. Masvidal’

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UFC 272 on Saturday marks the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and it should be an engaging show built around some bad blood. After some other options fell through, the UFC opted for the rare non-title headliner for a numbered event, and it will be interesting to see how this long-brewing grudge match between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal performs at the box office. Beyond that, this is not quite the earth-shaking lineup that some previous events offered, but there is a fun mix of recognizable names in some interesting bouts. After a bunch of late reshuffling, Rafael dos Anjos and Renato Carneiro meet in the rare five-round non-title co-headliner, with “Carneiro” getting a big shot on just a few days’ notice. Further down the main draw, Bryce Mitchell and Kevin Holland each find themselves in crucial spots—Mitchell in the biggest fight of his career to date against Edson Barboza and Holland attempting to find a fresh start at welterweight opposite Alex Oliveira.

Now to the UFC 272 “Covington vs. Masvidal” preview:

Welterweights

#1 WW | Colby Covington (16-3, 11-3 UFC) vs. #6 WW | Jorge Masvidal (35-15, 12-8 UFC)

ODDS: Covington (-320), Masvidal (+250)

With some title fights falling through, the UFC has decided to anchor this pay-per-view with a good old-fashioned grudge match, which speaks to the equity that Masvidal has built up. Masvidal spent nearly two decades on route to becoming an overnight success in 2019, one of the biggest breakthrough years for a fighter in recent memory. After a globetrotting career for about a decade, Masvidal eventually found a home in Strikeforce—and then the UFC—marking himself as a talented fighter who struggled to fully maximize his skill and potential. Masvidal was always capable of big moments but often seemed to lose track of the fight on the scorecards. He would land some offense, effectively evade or defend what his opponents brought to the table and make fights closer than they needed to be, suffering some undeserved losses due to poor optics. After plateauing at lightweight, Masvidal moved up to welterweight in 2015; and after some fights where he had much the same issues as before, “Gamebred” did eventually string together three straight wins in his new weight class, with a 2017 knockout of Donald Cerrone getting him to contender status. That window for title contention seemed short-lived. Masvidal lost a contentious decision to Demian Maia, then was thoroughly handled by Stephen Thompson over three rounds before vanishing for all of 2018. What emerged was a new Masvidal. While it is hard to say he presses any particular type of fight, he has since been much more intentional in terms of presenting danger wherever the fight takes place. That got him a second-round knockout of Till, which in turn set him up to land the career-defining highlight of all highlights: a five-second flying knee knockout of Ben Askren that is on the shortlist of greatest knockouts in mixed martial arts history. A star was born in those five seconds, enough so that Masvidal’s next fight headlined Madison Square Garden, where he took on Nate Diaz for a one-off BMF belt. The fight mostly served as a Masvidal showcase until he won via cut stoppage, and so he was established as a top contender for Kamaru Usman’s belt. Masvidal’s first title challenge against Usman came on relatively short notice, and the result was a flat performance in an uninteresting fight from both men. Usman was content to grind out a win, and that was essentially the story for 25 minutes. It is a testament to Masvidal’s star power that he got the call for a rematch less than a year later, even without a win in the interim. However, this time things wound up with Masvidal suffering a much more definitive loss, eating one of the best knockouts of the year in the second round. It is unclear how much Masvidal needs a win in order to keep things moving at the box office, but in terms of relevance within the division, he really could use a victory. It would be doubly sweet if it came against a friend-turned-rival in Covington.

Sign up for ESPN+ right here, and you can then stream UFC 272 live on your smart TV, computer, phone, tablet or streaming device via the ESPN app.

For a few years, Covington was a standard-issue wrestling-heavy prospect, well-regarded inside of the cage but not particularly interesting despite winning seven of his first eight UFC bouts. Then came UFC bout No. 9—a fight in Brazil against Maia that marked a clear turning point for “Chaos.” For one thing, it was by far Covington’s most exciting fight during the 15 minutes it lasted. Faced with someone who could match his skill on the mat, Covington pivoted from his usual approach to show himself as a tireless and high-paced striker. Then there was the post-fight interview, which marked Covington’s full turn into right-wing xenophobia in an attempt to drum up some interest. Clumsy as Covington is with his approach, it is hard to argue that his gambit has not worked. His two title challenges against Usman have drawn well, surely in part thanks to the dynamic that Covington has set up between himself and a champion who is an African immigrant. Now having lost to Usman twice, Covington finds himself in an interesting spot in terms of his stylistic progression. Covington is not a natural knockout artist in the slightest, so his approach is based around pace and volume with very little built-in defense, leveraging his impressive level of durability. That wound up as a clear losing battle the first time around. Both men just decided to throw down, and while each had their moments of success, Usman was clearly the one landing the harder shots, eventually breaking Covington’s jaw and earning a stoppage win in the last round of the fight. It would be nine months until Covington fought again, changing camps ahead of a main event fight against Tyron Woodley that was a clear win, even if it was uninspiring. Woodley was clearly ineffective by that point in his career, so it was hard to tell how much of Covington’s approach was either overly cautious or just him testing out a more patient fighting style. His rematch against Usman suggested it was more of the latter, which led to a strange dynamic over the course of that fight. After realizing that his more patient approach was just allowing Usman to take the initiative, Covington decided to revert back to his more aggressive style and found a great deal of success in doing so. Usman himself had put in a lot of work to become a more patient and technical fighter, which in turn meant that he was now the one struggling to flip the switch against a Covington who was willing to throw caution to the wind. The fight still wound up in an Usman victory, so Covington is left trying to figure out how to evolve without throwing out what led him to such great success in the first place. All of that may be moot with a loss to Masvidal.

This does appear to be Covington’s fight to lose, but at the same time, it does not feel like there is a clear path to a clean victory. Even in this most recent form, Masvidal still does not dictate the terms of his fights. He is as willing as ever to just go along with what his opponent presents, but the improvements have come via his willingness to hunt for a finish in those spaces. As a result, the question involves how much space Covington is willing to give. The classic version of Covington is defensively wide open, which presents a matchup with two clear outcomes: Covington grinds out a win or Masvidal is able to counter his pressure with a knockout blow. While Masvidal has the type of craft and explosiveness to make that a risky proposition—particularly with the strategic knowledge these two men have of each other—Covington also has a historical level of durability that he should be able to turn into a winning performance, even if he is likely to take some damage while doing so. Gven how Covington has attempted to shift his game recently—against Woodley and early in the Usman rematch—the worry is that he may have evolved in a way that minimizes his effectiveness. Being less aggressive may be a less risky proposition in the short run, but giving Masvidal time to feel out a fight seems like exactly the wrong move to make, particularly given that he still feels likely to find Covington’s chin if given the space and pace to work. Masvidal’s finishing ability should bring some tension to the proceedings, but circling back, this once again does feel like Covington's fight to lose. He should have success taking this fight to the ground and has the cardio to do so for 25 minutes. While Masvidal has been better about getting to his feet in recent years, there is still always the risk that he accepts the terms he has been given and unsuccessfully tries to win this fight from his back. The pick is Covington via decision.

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