TOKYO, Aug. 25 — Arrg! I had a bad dream last night. Bad, bad dream. I bet my parents’ house on Fedor’s win over Mirko, but Fedor got cut in the first round. Then the cut was opened wide in round two and the referee stopped the fight.
(My dream, you know real dream, usually doesn’t come true. If it did I’d be living in Malibu making babies with Jennifer Aniston.)
Alrighty fellas! Only a few days until the PRIDE Grand Prix! Have you already picked a winner? I did. My pick? Shogun. Yeah, yeah. I hear a lot of people saying, “Whaaaaat!?”
According to the poll on Sherdog.com, 89 percent of fight fans are not picking Shogun. I know, I know. I won’t bet my parents’ house on this one. To guess the winner out of four-man tournament is 10 times more difficult than one match.
The final will depend on how the semifinal fights went. The strongest guy doesn’t always win tournaments. Oh well, here’s my break down about tourney.
Wanderlei vs. Arona
OK, I live in Japan and I don’t understand Portuguese. Therefore, I don’t read Brazilian Web sites, so I don’t know how Wanderlei Silva (Pictures) or Ricardo Arona (Pictures) really trained or what their real conditions is. But whenever I guess the winner of a match, I always ask myself a lot of questions and pick up what I can see in my mind.
Of course, my mind calculates their fighting ability from what I saw in the past, then I reflect the image their action to the screen in my brain.
Just like this:
Masa do you see, Arona taking Silva down?
Yes I do.
Masa do you see Silva fighting comfortably on the ground from his against Arona?
Yes I do.
And on the screen in my brain I see Silva fighting Arona on his back. So now, here’s the line I can see in my brain. Can you see the same fight action?
I can see Silva punch while rushing at Arona.
I can see Arona react by double-legging Silva, who will react, sprawl and knee.
I can see Arona pull guard, and then Silva stand back up
I can see Arona having a hard time taking down Silva. But he’ll make it do it when he gets into a corner.
I can see Silva fighting from his back, but here I don’t see him keeping a closed guard the whole time.
I don’t see Arona missing the chance to pass Silva’s guard.
I can see Arona keeping the top position on the ground very good.
I can see Arona nailing Silva with knees from side position.
I can see a tough Silva, never tap and never give up. Then use his hips and stand back up.
I can see the stand-up battle going for a few minutes and then Arona rushes to the corner and takes Silva down again.
Now if Silva opens the guard, I see the same thing happening: Arona passes the guard and keeps the top position, whipping Silva somehow.
If Silva closes the guard then I see Arona using his hammer fists on Silva until the champ gets totally flat, like an airless blow-up doll.
After all of that, I see a sweat-shined Arona having his hand raised by referee Noguchi following a unanimous decision victory.
What is the key for this fight? I think Silva still has a chance to win. The key is if Silva can stay in the center and always fire first. If Arona stays in the center and starts punching at Silva, Silva might step back and get stuck at a corner.
Folks, if Arona stands in the center, and Silva stands between Arona and a corner post, that means a tough night for Silva. Arona always rushes at his opponent with one big stroke, like he’s doing the triple jump. Once Silva gets stuck in a corner, sure he may connect with a knee, but eventually he’ll get taken down.
If Silva stays in the center and gives Arona a lot of pressure first, then all Arona can do is react to Silva’s punches, meaning he’ll have to shoot. But it will be really hard for Arona to take Silva down without using the corner or ropes. That’s the key in my mind.
And right now, I see Arona triple jumping towards Silva as he swings his knuckles twice. And then hitting Silva’s ribs after taking the champion down in the corner.