This is bad news for Alves, who has shown that he can be controlled on the mat. He’s big for the 170-pound class, but so is St. Pierre. And he hasn’t seen a fourth or fifth round. That could be a big problem.
Striking: Alves seems to pack either more power or better aim: He’s knocked more people for a loop standing than St. Pierre has.
Canvas: Alves has never had much use for his black belt in jiu-jitsu: his lone submission win was years ago. He has also never had anyone as strong or as agile as St. Pierre take a shot at him: The effect may prove disillusioning.
What It Means: A win for St. Pierre virtually cleans out the welterweight division -- until Jake Shields arrives. While guys like Mike Swick and Martin Kampmann vie for the public’s backing, GSP might consider using the rest of 2009 to prepare for a long-rumored catch bout with Anderson Silva in 2010. If the UFC isn’t interested in capsizing one champion, then the winner here should probably face Swick -- though in a fight no one is really screaming for.
Third-Party Investor: The UFC, which could see unbelievable business develop by pitting two of the anointed “pound for pound” greats against one another in Silva and St. Pierre.
Who Wins: St. Pierre. Alves will tire resisting the takedowns, and GSP will capitalize in later rounds.