Picking & Grinning: UFC 136 Main Card

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC 136 “Edgar vs. Maynard 3” main card, which airs live on pay-per-view at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Saturday from the Toyota Center in Houston.

UFC Lightweight Championship
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard

Rob King: I will be pleasantly surprised if this fight is entertaining as their second bout was 10 months ago. Maynard threw everything he had at Edgar in the first round and could not finish the fight. If what was arguably the most impressive round of Maynard’s career could not finish the champion, what will? Maynard will push the pace and look for openings, but Edgar should be able to dance out of the way of the takedown attempts more often than not. I see this fight being similar to their last matchup. Maynard may start strong, although not nearly as strong as he did back in January. However, Edgar should be able to avoid Maynard’s takedowns the rest of the fight and score enough points to take a competitive decision victory and retain his title.

Lutfi Sariahmed: The first time out, Maynard beat Edgar for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision win. The second time out, Maynard blitzed Edgar early and did enough to win rounds late and get a draw. I don’t think Edgar can outwrestle Maynard. I also don’t think Maynard is that outmatched in the striking game. Will Maynard stop Edgar? No. Will he outwork Edgar? I think that’s his big takeaway from the second bout. Maynard put it on Edgar in the first round and couldn’t put him away, and he wasn’t prepared for the rest of the fight. I think Maynard went back to work to make sure he’s ready to outwork Edgar for a full five rounds. Give me Maynard to walk away with the lightweight belt.

Tony Loiseleur: The last time they fought, I confidently picked Maynard because I figured “all he needs to do is win three rounds, and his stifling wrestling ability is just right for that.” However, as that fight has shown, Edgar is more than capable of neutralizing Maynard’s takedowns, and he can do so after almost being knocked out. With that performance, Edgar has proven to have a grittiness and resilience that defines the best of champions, and thus, it’s hard for me to make the same pick as last time. He can still be hurt by Maynard’s clubbing power, but he’s still faster, sharper on the feet, has gas for days and has proven capable of keeping the fight standing, even when hurt. I’ll take Edgar over five rounds.

Tomasz Marciniak: Save for the walloping he received in round one of their UFC 125 fight, Edgar fought the next 20 minutes very well and, aside from giving up a couple of takedowns, comfortably outpointed his opponent. The next five rounds of this lightweight rivalry should look similar. Edgar has proven twice over now that he is a good enough wrestler to stave off Maynard’s takedowns, as long as he has the stamina, and, while he lacks power, he is a much more competent boxer. The reigning champ might lose a round or two on the way, but if he avoids the type of beat down he suffered through in the first round of their second fight, he should outwork Maynard en route to a decision.

UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian

Jordan Breen: The influx of lightweight talent to the featherweight division is exactly the kind of barometer the 145-pound division needs, so we can find out how MMA’s elite featherweights stack up. Based on Florian’s 145-pound debut against Aldo’s Nova Uniao teammate, Diego Nunes, it seems that the talent level might be higher than previously imagined. Florian seemed to struggle with the speedy, precise striking of Nunes, and, unfortunately for him, Aldo has more of that speed with vastly more devastating power and a much deeper repertoire. The health of Aldo may factor in over 25 minutes, but if “Scarface” is 100 percent, the Brazilian pistol either stops Florian or wins a well-earned decision.

Tristen Critchfield: This is why Florian moved to featherweight -- to get another chance at a title. However, if he gets outclassed by Aldo, where does he go from here? As was evidenced in the Mark Hominick fight, Florian’s best chance might be to take the fight into the championship rounds, where he could overtake Aldo as he wears down. It’s an unlikely scenario. The Brazilian’s power standing trumps Florian’s boxing, and “KenFlo” will have to wade through dangerous waters to take the fight to the ground. If it gets there, the champion could very well be too powerful -- some have suggested a move to 155 is in Aldo’s future. Aldo will pick his spots in the early going, getting a feel for Florian until he’s able to get his opponent’s timing down. By the third or fourth round, Aldo wins via knockout or technical knockout.

Brian Knapp: This is a crossroads fight for Florian, who failed in two bids to capture the UFC title at 155 pounds. Unfortunately for him, he runs into one of the sport’s most dominant competitors, a champion who outguns him in speed, power and skill. Aldo simply has too much firepower and too much momentum behind him to stumble here. Look for him to stop Florian on ground strikes midway through the fight.

Todd Martin: Florian never gets the respect he deserves, but this is just such a tough stylistic matchup for him. He has very good striking that’s predicated on speed, and he’s in there with a guy who’s faster and a more dangerous striker. His other big strength is his jiu-jitsu, and Aldo has a world-class ground game and will be very tough to submit. I think Aldo will get the better of the striking and score a technical knockout win in the third round or so.

Middleweights
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann

King: The UFC is in a no-lose situation here, as either guy would be a great challenger for Anderson Silva; Sonnen, obviously, with his history with Anderson, and Stann’s personal story never gets old. Stann is an ever-improving fighter who gets better and better each time out. Sonnen, on the other hand, is a guy who has been around forever. How many new tricks can this old dog learn? Sonnen is the better fighter on paper, but at the rate Stann is improving, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he can exploit Sonnen’s submission defense and surprise him. To play it safe here, give me Sonnen by decision.

Sariahmed: Can Stann stop Sonnen’s takedowns? Sometimes it really is just that simple. Sonnen went after Silva for four and a half rounds and got the better of him. It’s not about being fancy for him; it’s about doing whatever it takes to win. I don’t see Stann’s takedown defense being nearly strong enough to win this fight. Give me Sonnen by decision.

Knapp: At some point, unless he scores a quick knockout, Stann is going to wind up on his back. Sonnen’s wrestling is just that strong. The issue then becomes whether or not Stann has developed enough off his back to catch Sonnen, who has remained vulnerable to submissions throughout his career. I anticipate this fight unfolding much like Sonnen’s decision victory over Nate Marquardt in 2010. He may run into some thunder along the way, but he walks away with a decision and, with it, a second crack at Silva’s crown.

Lightweights
Joe Lauzon vs. Melvin Guillard

King: I want to pick Lauzon in this fight, but common sense will prevent that from happening. This is a dream style matchup for Guillard. Guillard has a significant edge in the standup, and, as long as this fight is on the feet, Lauzon really has no chance in this fight. Lauzon needs to get this fight on the ground and keep it there, but his takedowns are nothing special, so he could have some problems getting the fight where he needs it. I see Guillard wearing down Lauzon with shots early and getting a stoppage.

Sariahmed: I don’t know if I’ll ever be completely comfortable with the idea that Guillard is about two wins away from a lightweight title shot. All the credit in the world goes to him. He’s developing how you’re supposed to develop. It’s just jarring to me to think about how he has gone from a fighter who had not harnessed his power and could not defend a takedown to potential title contender. It’s impressive, and it’s also one of the key reasons why he’ll beat Lauzon. Guillard’s takedown defense can prevent this fight from going where he’s not comfortable. I’ll take Guillard to continue his roll and get the better of Lauzon.

Loiseleur: Guillard is on a roll, and I don’t see it stopping against Lauzon. It hasn’t happened often in Lauzon’s career, but I think Guillard can finish him here thanks to his fast and powerful hands. Expect to see “The Young Assassin” win, at least, by decision after three rounds of marking up Lauzon at the feet, or, at most, by laying him out for the TKO.

Marciniak: If this was 2009, I’d probably write something about how Guillard never seems to improve his ground game. Two years later, I feel comfortable saying that the Louisiana fighter finally closed the weak link in his game. His ability to bounce back to his feet is uncanny, and his opponent, while having slick grappling skills, is not a powerhouse wrestler and tends to fade later in fights. Honestly, I don’t see Lauzon posing much of a challenge to Guillard who should dispose of him by early in the second round the latest.

Featherweights
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan

Breen: I already watched this fight happen, and I watched Phan easily win every single round. Garcia is still the same old windmiller, while Phan showed incredible toughness and grit in his last outing against Mike Thomas Brown. Short of another heinous judges’ decision, Phan bests Garcia again. Here’s hoping he actually gets his hand raised for it this time.

Critchfield: Finally, we get the rematch to Sherdog.com’s 2010 “Robbery of the Year.” As much as Garcia claims to have become more technical, it’s a safe bet that he’ll return to swinging wildly in a pinch. Chan Sung Jung took that element out of play by submitting “Bad Boy” with a twister at UFC Fight Night 24. Phan’s striking was precise in his first encounter with Garcia, and he also held his own on the feet against Brown. It was when he was taken down by Brown that he had his most difficulty. Phan won’t have to worry about getting taken down here, but I’m expecting a better Garcia than we saw last year; Garcia by decision.

Knapp: Garcia’s resistance to change has left him woefully one-dimensional and completely dependent upon the home run. He cracks one from time to time -- ask Hiroyuki Takaya -- but more often than not, his hands find little more than air. Phan will enter the rematch knowing he was the superior fighter in their first matchup, except in the view of the three judges who were seated cageside. Despite that frustrating result, he would be wise to follow a similar game plan and avoid the lure of an all-out firefight. Discipline and experience carry Phan here, as he walks out with a well-deserved decision.

Martin: Phan won their first fight in spite of what two judges said, and all the reasons for that result still exist. Garcia is a wild slugger who opens himself up for technical counters, and Phan can play that game well. If Garcia tries to make it a more technical fight, that plays up Phan’s alley anyway. The judges are always a question mark, but, after the outcry over the first bout, Garcia isn’t going to get a gift decision. Phan is the pick.

Lightweights
Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens

King: Stephens is one of those guys who beats the guys he should beat and losses to the guys he should lose to. Pettis is a better fighter than Stephens. No, folks, we are not going to see another flying kick off the cage here, because Pettis doesn’t need to go deep into his playbook to get the victory. Stephens is not a submission master, and, unless he can land a heavy shot on Pettis and finish with a flurry, I see Pettis controlling this fight on the ground and scoring a submission victory midway through this bout.

Sariahmed: So the Pettis hype train came to a grinding halt. All of a sudden, he can no longer leap tall buildings in a single bound, save the world and bring peace to the Middle East. However, there may not be a better thing that happens to his career. Prospects in MMA never really get the chance to be prospects. For example, what’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Stefan Struve? Unless you’re his coach or his mother, prospect was not one of the first words. Why not? He’s 6-3 in the UFC, and his next bout will be against a big-name heavyweight. It is the very definition of what a prospect is supposed to be. They need time to develop their craft, but, far too often, we’re unwilling to give it to them. Then once they lose, we forget about them altogether. Pettis falls into this category, but it’s actually going to work out well for him. He’ll get fighters that he can deal with right now, Stephens included. Clay Guida took him down over and over and over and over again and won their fight. Clearly, Pettis’ wrestling needs work. Stephens won’t test his wrestling. They’ll throw hands and see who falls down first. I like Pettis by knockout.

Knapp: I do not see either man securing a finish in this one, unless Pettis winds up on his back and Stephens foolishly dives into his guard. Expect a three-round standup battle to ensue, with the far more technical and polished Pettis getting the best of Stephens in most of the exchanges. “Showtime” wins by decision.

2011 Picking & Grinning Standings
Jordan Breen: 140-59
Tristen Critchfield: 138-61
Brian Knapp: 137-62
Todd Martin: 135-64
Tomasz Marciniak: 134-65
Freddie DeFreitas: 132-67
Guilherme Pinheiro: 132-67
Rob King: 131-68
Lutfi Sariahmed: 129-70
Tony Loiseleur: 127-72