Picking & Grinning: UFC 129 Main Card

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Following Friday’s preliminary picks, Sherdog.com staff put their reputations on the line with bold predictions of the UFC 129 main card, which airs tonight at 6 p.m. ET on Facebook, Spike TV (8 p.m. ET) and pay-per-view (9 p.m. ET).

Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields

Tony Loiseleur: One of the things about living in Japan is that I don't often get to see what's on TV in North America, but sometimes that's a good thing. In this particular instance, I haven't seen the GSP-Shields Primetime series, which like HBO's 24/7, I shamefully admit still has the ability to sell me on how even a fight isn't. I'm always curious to see the best fight the best, and Shields definitely is one of the best welterweights around, but St. Pierre is the best at 170 and arguably, the best in the sport, period. From the opening moments, Shields is going to have a rough time getting past St. Pierre's jab and even if he does, I doubt he'll put the champ on his back. If the fight does go down, it'll be on St. Pierre's terms. Shields could conceivably put St. Pierre on the defensive with submission attempts, but he'll have to do it while eating punches. Lots of 'em. (Never mind the fact that St. Pierre already has good submission defense to begin with.) Considering that St. Pierre will be mashing on Shields wherever the fight goes, I don't expect his chances to improve over five rounds, particularly given his worrying performance against Martin Kampmann last October, drastic weight cut aside. Hopefully, Shields won't be put on the shelf indefinitely like Josh Koscheck, but I see another uncomfortable five-round drubbing courtesy of the champ here.

Tristen Critchfield: As has been the case in most of his recent bouts, St. Pierre will be able to dictate the pace and location of this fight. Shields might have the advantage on the ground, but it will be interesting to see what type of strategy he employs as the fight advances and he must defend against the champion's assault from his back. Shield's jiu-jitsu is his one advantage, but St. Pierre's overall athleticism will make it very difficult to exploit. St. Pierre will land sharp, crisp strikes to keep Shields at bay and neutralize most of Shield's takedowns. The fight's most interesting moment will come if the Californian can score a takedown and work from top position. Even if he does, St. Pierre will be able to weather the storm. While he's taken heat for not finishing fights of late, St. Pierre is too smart to take any unnecessary risks that would put his reign in jeopardy. He'll become more dominant as the fight moves to the championship rounds en route to another unanimous decision victory.

Guilherme Pinheiro: Look, Shields is a terrific fighter and I think he deserves the title shot against GSP even after what can be considered a sub-par performance against Martin Kampmann. However, he is running into the best welterweight ever and while I do think he has a way of winning the fight, I just don´t see it happening come fight night. GSP has been consistently showing an incredible ability of not only controlling where the fight takes place, but also outscoring his opponents wherever he chooses to fight. We have to look no further than his last fight, when GSP negated Koscheck's attempts at taking the fight to the ground and harassed him with his jab on his way to a lopsided decision. Shields is very dangerous on the ground and he could give GSP trouble if he manages to get a takedown and fall on top. That's one big “if.” I think GSP will maintain the fight standing and hurt Shields with his hands. Look for him to win with a late technical knockout.

Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick

Todd Martin: This is a tough fight for Hominick. He may have better hands than Aldo, but the champion is a much more diverse striker and Hominick is going to have trouble implementing what is usually a speed-based attack. Hominick also doesn’t generate a ton of power, which gives Aldo a likely out to go to his world class jiu jitsu if things aren’t going well in the striking. Aldo should win.

Freddie DeFreitas: Long considered to be one of the most technical muay Thai practioners at 145 pounds, Hominick presents the first true striker Aldo has faced since capturing WEC gold back in November of 2009. There are no arguments as to who has the edge on the ground. Despite Hominick’s seven wins by submission, it’s awful difficult to overlook the losses. Aldo will likely test his stand up against “The Machine” to a degree but if he finds himself on the receiving end of one too many counters, you can bet the champ will be swift to take the Canadian to the mat and look for the submission.

Jordan Breen: Hominick is one of the featherweight division's finest strikers, but Aldo is a nightmarish matchup for him. Hominick has speed and technique, but not a ton of power; his one homerun punch is his brilliant body punching, which means he'll have to wade in close to Aldo. Hominick is tough, but he can't take the sort of uppercut Aldo scorched Gamburyan with. If the bout stays at range, Hominick is still at a disadvantage: "The Machine" has a horrible habit of not checking low kicks, and that might let Aldo turn into a "lenhador," as the Brazilians say. Aldo by knockout; the only question is when he hits the killswitch.

Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida

Lutfi Sariahmed: While the Machida era may have been short lived, he is still the definition of an elusive fighter. Couture will make this bout a dirty one and have Machida fight for everything. With Couture’s dirty boxing, clinch work and wrestling, it won’t be pretty but he’ll win a decision over Machida.

Tomasz Marciniak: I don't think it's completely beyond the pale to think that Couture can put Machida on the fence and "win" rounds by hair-splitting margins to eventually wind up with his hand raised. However that outcome, to anybody who remembers the fight with Brandon Vera, is unlikely. Fist off, Couture will have trouble finding a way to clinch effectively with Machida, "Elusiveness" has become sort of a buzz-word but it's used for a reason. Furthermore, even in the clinch the Brazilian won't shut down on offense like Vera and I think he can be effective from this position with knees and perhaps trips. Machida will probably take his time to gauge the range and Couture's movement, but once he has that figured out he'll find a way to crack the American's chin for the TKO victory.

Brian Knapp: I do not like this matchup at all for Couture, who would like nothing more than to finish out his landmark career with another epic upset. He has made a career out of defying the odds, but Machida is too skilled and too elusive to be denied here. I see him working over Couture from the outside en route to a lopsided decision or late stoppage.

Benson Henderson vs. Mark Bocek

Loiseleur: Henderson is the favorite here, and justifiably so given that he's a wily, well-rounded fighter and the former WEC lightweight champion. Despite his impressive submission defense against guys like Donald Cerrone, I still think the grappling chops of Mark Bocek are a cut above, whose only loss in his last five was a close decision to the outstanding Jim Miller. If Bocek catches Henderson in something, he'll at least neutralize and keep him there, if not finish where Cerrone couldn't. Smooth hasn't been finished in four years, so I'll say Bocek by decision just to be safe. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Toronto native did tap him after all for an otherwise inauspicious welcome to the UFC.

Critchfield: Lost in all the hoopla that followed Anthony Pettis' highlight-reel kick is that Henderson still has the potential to be a dangerous contender in the UFC at 155 pounds. His Gumby-like ability to battle submissions makes him a frustrating foe for almost anyone on the ground. Bocek enters UFC 129 having won four of his last five bouts, and he believes he can make the former WEC lightweight king tap. It's going to be a tough order, because Henderson possesses strong wrestling skills to control the fight from the top and has also displayed an ability to land strikes inside an opponent's guard. Bocek will give an inspired performance in front of the home folks, but Henderson will hold on to take a decision.

Pinheiro: This fight might be closer than people think. I really like Bocek’s evolution as a fighter. He came a long way since losing two of his first three fights in the UFC. Since then he is 4-1 in the UFC with the only loss coming in a very close fight against Miller. That being said, I think he’s gonna have a tough time against Henderson. Henderson is the better fighter standing up and is a very hard guy to submit. I see Bocek giving Henderson some trouble early on, but eventually losing a decision to the former WEC champ.

Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Jason Brilz

Breen: Frankly, Brilz should be unbeaten in the UFC: he outboxed Eliot Marshall and bested Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, and got jobbed on the scorecards both times. Matyushenko is a formidable wrestler and a tough veteran grinder, but Brilz's wrestling game is a bit more dynamic; he can actually attack with submissions, and if their wrestling neutralizes one another, Brilz is a superior boxer. Look for Brilz on points, unless the judges decide that robberies, like celebrity deaths, come in threes.

Martin: This fight, like most Matyushenko fights, is likely to come down to which man is the better wrestler. Matyushenko is getting up there in age, but his style was never heavily reliant on youth-driven athleticism. I see Matyushenko getting the majority of takedowns to control Brilz, and taking the win via decision.

DeFreitas: Brilz and Matyushenko matchup extremely well. Both are above-par wrestlers with decent (at best) striking. Admittedly, I went to consult my magic 8-ball but ultimately decided my time would be better spent watching both combatants last two contests. Brilz essential signed off on “Red” Schaefer’s walking papers with a unanimous decision win and followed that up with a still-questionable split decision loss to Nogueira. Matyushenko during that same time was perhaps less impressive in semi-controversial win over Alexandre “Cacareco” Ferreira and a swift dismantling at the hands of light heavyweight king Jon Jones. The pick is Brilz.