Picking & Grinning: UFC 126 Main Card
Jeff Sherwood Feb 5, 2011
Anderson Silva (top) is a clear favorite over Vitor Belfort with
Sherdog staff. | Jeff Sherwood/Sherdog.com
Following Friday’s preliminary picks, Sherdog.com staff put their reputations on the line with bold predictions of the UFC 126 main card:
UFC Middleweight Championship
Anderson Silva (No. 1 MW, No. 2 PFP) vs. Vitor Belfort (No. 5 MW)
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Tristen Critchfield: Chael Sonnen laid out a nice blueprint for how to beat "The Spider," but don't expect Belfort to follow it. The UFC has finally given Silva another striker to play with at middleweight after frustrating him with jiu-jitsu aces and wrestlers. Belfort has electric hands, but nobody is on Silva's level. Silva by TKO in round one.
Guilherme Pinheiro: First of all, let me just emphasize how
big this fight is here in Brazil. It’s like everyone knows about
MMA now. Everywhere you go people are talking about this matchup;
they are calling it the “Fight of Century.” Let me be the first to
declare that the Brazilian people are in for a big disappointment.
While Belfort is by far the most recognizable MMA fighter in
Brazil, he is not the most talented, nor the most accomplished.
Those distinctions belong to his opponent. It really puzzles me
that some people are picking Vitor to win just because they think
he is going to “get” Anderson sometime during the fight. First of
all, he’s going to go into the cage after nearly 18 months of
inactivity. Also, there is no practical evidence pointing to the
possibility that he gets Anderson with a punch and puts him to
sleep. People are picking him mostly because they want him to win.
I know it would be a heck of a comeback story, but it just isn’t
going to happen. I don’t think it’ll be close. Anderson just has to
avoid the early storm in the first round. After that, it’s all
Anderson. The champ wins this by TKO in the second round.
Freddie DeFreitas: While Belfort's best chance of winning lies within the first two rounds of this fight, I honestly can't see him catching “The Spider.” Silva will silence his critics with a third round stoppage over Belfort.
Jordan Breen: The main event interests me in a way few fights have in recent memory: is Belfort really having a 57th career resurgance? What are the implications of Silva's recent bizarre performances and mounting injuries as he approaches 36 years of age? I feel like nothing would shock me in the fight. However, the one thing I do know for sure is that Belfort historically has shut down as fights have gotten difficult, and that if Silva is remotely on form, he has the athletic ability and defensive savvy to frustrate the challenger. I find it hard to believe we see an aggressive, highlight-reel producing Silva, but I do think he can land clean, hard strikes on an increasingly ineffective Belfort as the fight goes on. "The Spider" probably wins on points; here's hoping it's not as dismal as some of his other 25-minute affairs in recent memory.
Todd Martin: The general perception over the years has been that Silva would eventually lose his title to a ground-oriented fighter. I think that’s still the most likely scenario but Belfort does present some unique challenges for Silva. Belfort’s hand speed and footwork are a tough task for any striker and Silva might have difficulty preserving his ideal range. Still, it’s hard to pick against Silva. He has many more striking tools than Belfort, and has throughout his career showed much greater poise under fire.
Forrest Griffin (No. 5 LHW) vs. Rich Franklin
Rob King: I see a slugfest developing here and if that does indeed happen, it should favor Franklin. Griffin has been caught before on the feet by being too aggressive; the most notable example being his fight with Anderson. I believe Griffin has a higher belt rank in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but at first thought you seem to think Franklin would have the advantage based on whom he trains with. I'm going with Franklin via late decision.
Brian Knapp: I think Franklin overcomes the size disparity by using angles to strike effectively on Griffin. Give me Franklin on points.
Tomasz Marciniak: It's been a while since the original “Ultimate Fighter” winner actually fought, so ring rust might be an issue. The match-up against Franklin is one of those that, on paper, you struggle to think of too many advantages for the former light heavyweight champion. Yet Griffin has proven, both against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, that he is capable of somehow winning such fights. That said, I do believe Franklin will have a considerable speed and power advantage in the striking and I don't see Griffin's low kicks being able to close that gap. Franklin is too experienced and not stubborn enough to not make tactical adjustments if his leg begins to take abuse. Franklin by decision seems the most plausible outcome.
Lutfi Sariahmed: For a while I trumpeted the Franklin cause wondering very openly why he wasn't getting a shot among the top contenders in the light heavyweight division after his move up from middleweight. A win over Hamill, a bout at 205 against Dan Henderson to determine who moves back down to 185, a catchweight bout against Wanderlei Silva and bouts against Belfort and Chuck Liddell since then. I understand he has the loss to Belfort, but the move up to light heavyweight was supposed to reinvigorate his career after the Silva losses. Looking at the bout against Forrest, the size difference is going to be a huge issue here because Franklin can't compensate with a speed advantage either. I look for Forrest to wear him down over three rounds and win a decision.Â
Ryan Bader (No. 6 LHW) vs. Jon Jones (No. 7 LHW)
Loiseleur: Ryan Bader is a great light heavyweight, but given Jones' ever improving -- and otherworldly -- abilities it's hard to imagine he doesn't find some creative way to tie Bader up and hurt him badly. Like anyone with a pulse, I really like the quality of violence I've seen from "Bones," particularly with those brutal elbows of his. While I'm not sure he will finish Bader, I'm certain that he will at least give him his first loss. Jones by decision just to be on the safe side, but if he finishes Bader, somehow I don't think I'd be surprised.
Critchfield: Jones has been overwhelming of late, but Bader is a difficult enough transition to make another first round stoppage an unreasonable expectation. Bader punches hard, but Jones is quicker and more dynamic on the feet. Bader is a powerful wrestler, but Jones is more than competent in that area and has fared well against wrestlers in the past. Jones might not finish Bader, but he takes the decision.
Pinheiro: At the risk of being thrown out of my own country, I’m going to say this is the UFC 126 fight I want to see the most. This is a great matchup between two talented prospects, and the winner of the bout will be fast-tracked to a title shot. At this point, I don’t really have anything new to say about Jones except for the fact that every time I look for him to be tested, he runs his opponent out of the building. Bader is Jones’ toughest test so far. While he is a very accomplished wrestler, I can’t say I envision him putting Jones down and controlling him there. Also, Bader often gasses during the latter parts of his fights, and that’s fatal against a guy like “Bones.” At the end of the day, I can’t see a true advantage for Bader. I’ll go with Jones by TKO in the third round.
DeFreitas: Jones' ability to deftly mix unorthodox precision striking with takedowns gives him the clear advantage in this fight. Look for Bones to light Bader up standing and put the former Division 1 wrestler on his back a few times, handing the Arizona native his first professional loss by TKO in the third round.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha
Jordan Breen: Rocha is a dynamic and versatile grappler, which people saw in his UFC debut against Kris McCray. However, Ellenberger isn't going to look for the back and end up getting kneebarred. Ellenberger has the thudding power on the feet to put Rocha away, and the position skills to sock him from top position. The nasty Nebraskan is looking at a TKO stoppage or dominant decision against the German-based Brazilian, which should help implant him more firmly into the consciousness of fans when talking about contenders at 170 pounds.
Todd Martin: Ellenberger is a fighter who has appeared to put it all together in the past year and a half. He may not be able to submit Rocha, but he should be able to dominate the striking and the wrestling. That will be more than enough to pick up the win.
Rob King: I cannot for the life of me figure out how this got main card status over Cerrone, Omigawa/Mendes, and Yamamoto/Johnson. With all the other solid fights on this card, this match has been largely forgotten, as it should be a solid fight between two solid fighters. If Ellenberger leaves a limb exposed, Rocha will take it home with him, but look for Ellenberger to use his experience advantage and better fists to take a stoppage victory.
Brian Knapp: Is there a welterweight more underappreciated than Ellenberger? Takedowns and ground-and-pound carry him here en route to an early stoppage.
Miguel Torres vs. Antonio Banuelos
Marciniak: I may be one of the very few who cling to this theory, but to me Torres' loses have been greatly exaggerated due to the brutal manner in which he got finished. He was flurrying on Brian Bowles just before the knockout, and he seemed to be finding his range early in round two against Joseph Benavidez before he got taken down. While he may never again be the bantamweight king again, he's still a very good fighter in that weight class and has the tools and range to beat Banuelos, whose penchant for undisciplined striking and getting into brawls plays right into Torres’ game. I like Torres by stoppage.
Sariahmed: Big bout for Torres here. The way his WEC stint ended has been well documented. The new start in the UFC gives him a chance to rejuvenate his career. He has that perfect opportunity here against Banuelos, because this bout will not dabble with the ground game. Banuelos has that power shot, but he's at a reach disadvantage and Torres is the more technical striker. Give me Torres by decision and maybe enough to get him back up the ladder once again.Â
Loiseleur: Since I don't see Banuelos having the power of a Bowles or the speed and quickness factor of a Benavidez, I expect Torres to chip away at an aggressive Banuelos, perhaps until he attempts to take it to the floor. Even if it goes there -- and it probably will since Torres' weakest point is his defensive wrestling -- Torres will still have the advantage with his superior jiujitsu skills, and will tie Banuelos up and keep him on the run from submission and sweep attempts. Defensive wrestling aside, I think the former bantamweight champ trumps Banuelos in all areas, but matches him in tenacity. I'm suspecting that this will be a fun fight, since both men can really get after it, but all the same, give me Torres by decision.
Critchfield: Torres returned to form in his win over Charlie Valencia, and the thinking here is the jiu-jitsu black belt has another title run in him. Banuelos succumbs on the ground late. Torres by submission in round three.
2011 Standings
Tomasz Marciniak 18-10
Brian Knapp 17-11
Todd Martin 17-11
Guilherme Pinheiro 16-12
Tristen Critchfield 15-13
Lutfi Sariahmed 15-13
Rob King 14-14
Jordan Breen 14-14
Tony Loiseleur 14-14
Freddie DeFreitas 11-17
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