T.J. Dillashaw will defend his bantamweight title against former champion Renan Barao in the UFC on Fox 16 main event on Saturday at the United Center in Chicago. Things have certainly changed since May 2014, when these men first met. Dillashaw has shined, while Barao has had issues reminding the MMA world why he was undefeated for the better part of a decade.
Dillashaw currently has the respect of the fans, media and sportsbooks, where he is one average a -220 favorite. His price for your Kountermove team is a reasonable $5,400. I like Dillashaw in this fight and for your lineup. The Team Alpha Male product scored a stoppage late in the first meeting with Barao. While I’m not sure he will get another finish in the rematch, I do feel his dominance over five rounds will make him a 100-plus point earner for your team. I’m not sold on Barao getting anything going, and I’m still worried about his ability to make the 135-pound limit while maintaining the cardio and stamina required to take rounds against Dillashaw the later the fight goes.
Up and down this card you will find fighters that tax your Kountermove budget. What you need to do is pick the expensive fighters you feel will earn stoppages. For example, I think Miesha Tate is going to defeat Jessica Eye in the co-main event. However, Eye’s durability, when coupled with the fact that “Cupcake” hasn’t finished anyone since 2012, makes me think the former Strikeforce champion’s $5,400 price tag is far too steep for what will most likely be a decision win.
Edson Barboza is a much better choice for your money. The Brazillian costs $5,000 of your $25,000 cap. If you like him to win this fight, I think he’s a no-brainer. While the former Ring of Combat titleholder is fighting an undefeated Paul Felder, Barboza has proven to be a talented striker, with 10 technical knockouts to his credit. Barboza’s offensive output is also such that if he fails to stop the contest, the amount of significant strikes he lands should make up the difference. Also, while undefeated, Felder is no stranger to mixing it up on the feet, winning seven of his 10 fights by knockout or TKO. I don’t want to talk out of both sides of my mouth, but if you spend heavy elsewhere and have questions about Barboza, Felder is a nice pickup at $4,600.
Kountermove games are also won and lost by picking mid-card guys who are evenly matched. While I’m not sure Bryan Caraway is going to run up huge numbers for your team, I do like his matchup against Eddie Wineland to steal a victory for you at an economical price of $4,700. I think a lot of people will see Daron Cruickshank as a nice pickup for their team. “The Detroit Superstar” is always a fighter pegged for “Fight of the Night” honors or some sort of other highlight-reel action. However, the $5,300 price tag, his hit-or-miss run of late and a questionable ground game has me running from him on this card. While I’m not advising you to put your faith in James Krause, the fact that he has 12 submission victories on his resume and may be fighting for his UFC life might provide enough of an incentive for him to claim an unlikely win.