Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Chiesa vs. Lee’

Featherweights

B.J. Penn (16-11-2) vs. Dennis Siver (22-11)

THE MATCHUP: Penn looked pretty good in his bout with Yair Rodriguez ... at least in comparison to his bizarre showing against Frankie Edgar. While Penn was generally outpaced, he looked more or less prepared for a fight and managed to pull the trigger on at least one or two potentially critical opportunities. Of course, the dark fact hanging over all of this is simple: a 38 year-old Penn is much diminished from the young “Prodigy” who was once the best lightweight in the world.

Since around 2011, Penn has not been the same. He was always dinged for his inconsistency, but after 2011, Penn finally began turning in predictable performances. Unfortunately, this was the kind of predictability of which opponents could take full advantage. Penn has lost his last four fights -- consistently.

Fortunately for Penn, Siver is not a young man, either, and he is certainly less dangerous than the likes of Rodriguez and Edgar. Also 38, Siver has not fought for the last 24 months, his layoff following a pair of losses to Conor McGregor and Tatsuya Kawajiri. Once known for his series of spinning back kick knockouts, Siver’s style has evolved as his youthful speed and agility proceed to deteriorate. These days, the German-born Siver relies more on quick, stinging kicks, and he packs a few counterpunches for when his opponent storms into range. He has also developed a solid wrestling game, using his kickboxer’s timing to hit reactive takedowns, after which Siver tends to prioritize control over aggression on the ground.

In truth, both of these men are well past their best. Siver did not look much better in his fight with McGregor than Penn did against Rodriguez. Penn’s opposition has been stronger across the board, but he has also totally failed to do what veterans do when their bodies begin to fail.

THE ODDS: Siver (-246), Penn (+197)

THE PICK: The predictability of Siver’s head movement -- the way that he always slips to the right and ducks his head in the same way every time he throws his left hook -- is the kind of thing that Penn absolutely can pick up on. Penn was, in his time, one of MMA’s best and most technical boxers. For a fighter who has always been a bit of a plodder, however, the 38 year-old Penn is clearly more sluggish than ever, lacking the kind of agility he would need to stop the steady hailstorm of attritive kicks Siver throws at long range. Penn has waited on the counter throughout his career, and he has grown less and less eager to pull the trigger with each passing year. Siver can control the pace of the bout and keep Penn from finding any major openings on his way to a somewhat close verdict. The pick is Siver by unanimous decision.

Last Fights » The Prelims