Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Chiesa vs. Lee’

Lightweights

Clay Guida (32-17) vs. Erik Koch (15-4): This will be an interesting clash of somewhat outmoded styles. Unfortunately, injuries may have robbed us of the contender Koch might have been. The 28-year-old Roufusport fighter has fought just five times in the last six years, with no fights at all in 2012 and 2015. Koch looked good in his victory over Shane Campbell, but that was May 2016, and thanks to another injury in December, this will be his first walk to the cage since. If Koch can get over his injuries, he can still do big things in the lightweight division. A bout with Guida, making his return to 155 pounds after a 1-3 run at featherweight, is the perfect test to see whether Koch still has what it takes to contend. A bit like Conor McGregor stylistically, Koch uses precision and speed to augment the already considerable power in his hands. Unlike McGregor, Koch usually finishes his opponents via submission, jumping on necks after knockdowns, a la Donald Cerrone. Koch is a solid defensive wrestler but not a perfect one. Guida usually manages to take down all but the very best wrestlers, and Koch’s guard-heavy grappling game may allow him to do some of what he did against Hatsu Hioki. Guida also has a habit of giving up his neck in transitions, so Koch may have opportunities to grab a guillotine or climb to the back. While Guida has not lost one ounce of his legendary stamina and his striking is still showing new signs of improvement, he nonetheless appears to be slowing down overall. Koch’s game is a bit of a throwback itself, so the old-school Guida may have an easier time navigating it, but Koch’s speed and distance management stand to give him problems. Koch by third-round submission is the pick.

Women’s Strawweights

Carla Esparza (11-4) vs. Maryna Moroz (8-1): It most likely has something to do with her behavior on “The Ultimate Fighter,” but Esparza does not receive the respect she deserves. Yes, Joanna Jedrzejczyk tore her apart like tissue paper. Nonetheless, Esparza showed grit and skill aplenty in her title-winning fight with Rose Namajunas, and she had a good case for victory in her recent split decision loss to Randa Markos. She is not a perfect fighter, but she is a good one and easily among the best takedown artists in women’s MMA, with good set-ups, sharp timing and a commitment to chain wrestling unrivaled in this division. Esparza suffers from the same problem as flyweight contender Wilson Reis: She needs her takedowns to work before she feels comfortable striking, and she needs to land strikes to set up takedowns. The resulting pattern is one in which Esparza does not look so good for the first two or three minutes and then starts putting everything together. Moroz may be able to test Esparza during those awkward, early moments. She is a crisp combination puncher with respectable power, and she will tower over Esparza, with six-inch height and four-inch reach advantages. As far as numbers go, however, one really stands out: zero. That is the number of takedowns Moroz has defended in the UFC, and while only three attempts have been made against her, they have all been successful. For Esparza, who shoots an average of 12.33 takedowns for every 15 minutes, this fact is practically an invitation to wrestle, and her excellent top game should render the grappling battle winnable for her. Expect Esparza to endure a few ugly moments in the first round before finding Moroz’s hips and building momentum from there. The pick is Esparza by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Devin Powell (8-2) vs. Darrell Horcher (12-2): It was well over a year ago that Horcher lost his UFC debut, and he has not fought since. While he was thoroughly beaten, Horcher earned some respect by stepping in on short notice to fight top contender Khabib Nurmagomedov and even more respect by nailing the Dagestani grappler with some hard, clean punches in the first round. Horcher is a fairly upright fighter, and once his first layer of takedown defense is penetrated, he is not particularly strong on the ground. On the feet, however, he is a straightforward technician who likes to catch and parry blows before firing back with long, southpaw counters. Powell is remarkably scrappy, but he was thoroughly outclassed by Drakkar Klose in his UFC debut. This contest with a superior athlete highlighted -- if not exposed -- some of Powell’s more serious flaws. For one, he is far too hittable. Second, he seems to fight in a state of permanent unbalance, causing him to reel drunkenly around the cage whenever his chin is touched. Third, he seems to lack any sort of dominant physicality or at least not enough to prevent Klose from throwing him to the ground on several occasions. Powell is certainly tough, having never been knocked out, and a coachable nature allows him to make adjustments from round to round. Nonetheless, the combined record of his opponents stands at 43-34-1. His chin has never been tested by a puncher of Horcher’s caliber, and the latter’s athleticism and technical kickboxing will probably make things quite difficult for him, especially in the early going. The pick is Horcher by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Jared Gordon (12-1) vs. Michel Quinones (8-1): If you ever wondered what Rashid Magomedov would look like if he dropped 10 pounds, stopped worrying so much about defense and compensated by adding more aggression and power to his game, then Quinones is right up your alley. Quinones is not young at 32 years old, but he has only been competing in MMA since 2011, and his recent competition has been respectable enough to warrant some hype heading into his UFC debut. However, Gordon is both younger and more experienced. Gordon is more accustomed to going the distance, having done so five times in his pro career. On the other hand, Quinones has gotten the finish in all but two of his eight career wins, with one second-round win and five first-round stoppages, suggesting he is the more dangerous fighter. Quinones is all about the counter right hand and the quick left kick, but Gordon’s bread-and-butter is wrestling. He uses his hands to set up takedowns, and though his initial drive is not always perfect, he chain wrestles well. On the ground, Gordon stays heavy and does considerable damage with ground-and-pound. Quinones is the more dynamic fighter and will find opportunities to land in the midst of Gordon’s relentless assaults, but the wrestler with experience in long fights should be able to neutralize him. The pick is Gordon by unanimous decision.

Light Heavyweights

Josh Stansbury (8-3) vs. Jeremy Kimball (14-6): Kimball is an interesting fighter and an odd one. A former middleweight, Kimball is an agile kickboxer who made the move to 205 pounds in 2015, his chest and gut expanding. While he does possess surprising speed and agility, Kimball is also susceptible to the wrestling and grappling of bigger, better athletes. With quick hands, tricky counter kicks and a bad habit of getting choked out, Kimball is something like a cross between Matt Mitrione and Emanuel Newton. His vulnerability on the ground, however, may make him easy pickings for Stansbury. Kimball was caught by the rear-naked choke in his first two fights, and four years later, in a bout with UFC veteran Chris Camozzi, he seemed not to have picked up on ounce more of grappling knowledge. While his heart cannot be questioned, Kimball’s persistent technical limitations put him in the same boat as fighters like Anthony Johnson, forever doomed against aggressive grapplers. However, if Stansbury chooses to work out his own kickboxing game, as he has in his last two fights, or if Kimball has finally improved his wrestling, then his speed and creativity should dominate the proceedings. My prediction is that Stansbury, who was beaten on the feet in his last fight, will come into this bout well-prepared for a return to his roots. The pick is Stansbury by second-round submission.

Lightweights

Tony Martin (11-3) vs. Johnny Case (22-5): A solid talent at 27 years old, it is good to see Case back in the cage after what appeared to be an off night in his March 2016 fight with Jake Matthews. Welcoming him in his return is Martin, a durable behemoth of a submission grappler and another man just entering his prime who has been somewhat overlooked as a steadily developing fighter. At 5-foot-10, Martin and Case are the same height, but Martin carries substantially more mass. In the past the obviously difficult weight cut has been a problem for him, causing him to slow down quickly, but since the adoption of early weigh-ins and a newly regimented diet, Martin has earned one impressive come-from-behind submission in the third round and one three-round unanimous decision. If Martin is able to use his size and remarkable strength to his advantage for three rounds, then Case, who has always been a willing grappler, could be in trouble down the stretch. Case is an excellent scrambler, and he is certainly the more technical striker overall. He would be well-advised to work the body and legs of Martin, taking advantage of his porous defense and forcing him to feel his own weight. Nonetheless, it was the pressure of Matthews that gave Case problems in his last outing, and if his 15-month layoff has coated him in even a thin layer of ring rust, then Martin stands a good chance of finding the same kind of success. Martin by third-round submission is the pick.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.