Preview: UFC 208 ‘Holm vs. de Randamie’

Lightweights

Dustin Poirier (20-5) vs. Jim Miller (28-8)

THE MATCHUP: Lightweight has long been the home of the action fighter, and no fight in recent memory has celebrated that fact more than this one. Miller may seem like a holdover from a bygone era, and in truth, he has struggled in recent years to perform to his old standard. Nonetheless, those who were considering writing off Miller for good after his loss to Diego Sanchez were forced to eat their words when the veteran compiled an impressive three-fight winning streak in the latter half of 2016.

Poirier is experiencing an entirely different kind of momentum at the moment, having just seen his own streak evaporate at the hands of Michael Johnson, who stopped “The Diamond” in the first round back in September. Thus, this is his opportunity to get back on the track to title contention.

At this point, MMA fans understand Miller’s game very well. He is, of course, an excellent submission grappler. Sometimes, yes, he gets himself caught on the ground. His aggression and confidence are to blame, however, rather than any sort of technical deficiency. Just as pressure fighters will necessarily take more punches than boxers, Miller’s willingness to mix it up on the floor means that, every now and then, he gets his neck caught. Miller has bolstered his trademark attack with an improved focus on wrestling, hitting four takedowns against an overweight but still remarkably sharp Thiago Alves in his last bout.

Miller is no rube on the feet, either. His muay Thai has always been underrated, and many a fighter has felt the power of his roundhouse kicks and slashing elbows. To exclusively strike with Poirier would be a mistake. “The Diamond” should perhaps consider calling himself “The Dynamite” for the tremendous power in his fists. Rather than simply slugging, however, he has made steady progress in terms of technique. With constantly improving footwork, Poirier has become more and more difficult to hit on the feet, and those same angles enable him to let his hands go like never before. Poirier is accustomed to doubling and even tripling the output of his opponents, and yet conditioning is rarely if ever an issue.

Poirier has a few other skills in his back pocket, which should allow him to compete with Miller in all phases. He is an effective takedown artist when he wants to be, and his ground striking is every bit as fearsome as his kickboxing. He is also dangerous in the clinch, an area which Miller also prefers. Fireworks are in store.

THE ODDS: Poirier (-450), Miller (+355)

THE PICK: Like many others, I was uncertain of Miller’s future at the start of last year, but he has soundly proven -- once again -- that he deserves his station as “gatekeeper to the elite.” Unfortunately for Miller, Poirier should be able to dictate the location of this fight. He has not been taken down since 2013, and he has not been submitted since 2012. What he has been doing, especially since his return to the lightweight division, is knocking people out. Miller is famously tough but he is not invulnerable, and without the ability to work his grappling, he will be forced to slug it out with the younger, harder-hitting fighter. The pick is Poirier by first-round TKO.

Last Fights » The Prelims