Preview: UFC 208 ‘Holm vs. de Randamie’

Welterweights

Randy Brown (9-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-2): Brown made great strides in his last fight. Before he faced Brian Camozzi, Brown was a long and tall fighter who did not exactly make the most of his attributes at range. He moved fairly well but was strangely insistent on the lead right while eschewing the jab -- every lanky fighter’s most faithful friend. Perhaps it was the fact that Camozzi was the first fighter “Rude Boy” had faced who was not only similarly sized but also a more technical kickboxer, but Brown’s jab showed up just when he needed it most, and his prospects have never looked brighter. In fact, without that jab I would have picked Muhammad to win here, short-notice be damned. Muhammad is an extremely efficient fighter, using a stiff jab to set up chopping low kicks, power punches and takedowns. Muhammad is not much of a submission threat, but his biggest problem is defensive in nature. For all of his striking technique, Muhammad simply does not move his head on the way in, a habit which saw him brutally knocked out by Vicente Luque in his last fight. Brown is a work in progress, too, but he is increasingly comfortable on the feet, and now he has the right tools to compete with Muhammad’s own boxing. Brown by second-round TKO is the pick.

Flyweights

Wilson Reis (21-6) vs. Yuta Sasaki (19-3-2): Sasaki is a good fighter, as evinced by his recent win over the scrappy Willie Gates, but he is a highly specialized one. Unfortunately for him, that specialty is submission grappling. Reis, on the other hand, is an extremely well-rounded fighter with one glaring flaw, and that flaw is not his ground game. To his credit, Sasaki is an incredibly determined grappler, a quality without which he would be lost. However, his wrestling is very reminiscent of the old-school Japanese style. In other words, he needs to hit trips from the clinch or hit low singles from long range, neither of which is likely to work well against the powerfully built Reis, who is not only a determined wrestler but an explosive one, as well. Reis should have the luxury of dictating the pace and whereabouts of this fight, and that is how he will find the win. While 2016 gave us enough surprises to know that no man can be counted out until the final horn sounds, it is difficult to see a path to victory for “Ulka” here. The pick is Reis by third-round TKO.

Lightweights

Nik Lentz (27-7-2) vs. Islam Makhachev (13-1): If I were to choose one word to describe Lentz, it would be “grit.” He has been plying his trade for well over a decade at this point, and his win column consists of a pleasing blend of decisions, knockouts and submissions -- strong evidence of his well-roundedness. Lentz is accustomed to pushing a hard pace, using rinse-and-repeat takedowns to expose his opponent for whittling strikes and utilizing opportunistic submissions. Lentz has what MMA heads call “wrestler’s jiu-jitsu.” He prefers top position and typically sets up chokes from the front headlock or the leg ride. All of that makes him an interesting test for Makhachev, whose style is very similar, albeit a bit more delicate. Makhachev is a brilliant transitional fighter, much in the mold of teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov. He is a comfortable striker -- at times, he is too comfortable -- but he is at his best setting up takedowns and scrambles. With six of his 13 wins coming via submission, it is no secret what Makhachev will look to do, but it takes a special kind of aggressive submission artist to tap Lentz; and in this matchup, it is Lentz, not Makhachev, who is more comfortable fighting aggressively. Makhachev is an excellent young prospect, but Lentz is experienced, powerful and gritty. Who knows what will happen when these two start scrambling, but Lentz by unanimous decision is the pick.

Flyweights

Ian McCall (13-5-1) vs. Jarred Brooks (12-0): It appears as if the universe will allow McCall to fight. “Uncle Creepy” has had five straight bouts fall out from under him, including the one against Neil Seery that was supposed to take place at this event. As a result, he has been unable to fight since January 2015. Brooks, on the other hand, has fought and won an incredible eight times since that date, all against winning opposition. Brooks is a stocky fighter, having competed most recently at atomweight, and his striking and wrestling are equally based on his impressive natural power. He is also pathologically aggressive, and that could mean trouble for McCall. “Uncle Creepy” is in many ways the bigger man, but he has never displayed the sort of power game that makes Brooks so dangerous. He is also notoriously prone to displays of poor fight IQ, whether choosing to stand and trade with Iliarde Santos or abandoning his wrestling game against John Lineker. McCall can move laterally and throw crisp combinations, but that Lineker fight is likely the best parallel here: If Brooks comes out aggressive and refuses to slow down, McCall may struggle to catch up or may even check out entirely. The pick is Brooks by unanimous decision.

Heavyweights

Marcin Tybura (14-2) vs. Justin Willis (4-1): Tybura has always gotten by thanks to his tremendous durability and finishing instincts, both valuable attributes in the heavyweight division. Given room to work, Tybura is a fairly technical kickboxer. Rarely throwing in combination, he nonetheless mixes up his strikes, vacillating between powerful leg kicks, piercing front kicks and lunging punches. Tybura’s biggest problem -- one that has plagued him throughout his career -- is his tendency to stand straight up and wing his punches in the midst of an exchange. The Pole has an ace up his sleeve in the form of a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, but whether or not he gets the chance to use it depends heavily on whether or not he can outwrestle Willis. An American Kickboxing Academy product who played college football at San Jose State University, he enters his Octagon debut on a four-fight winning streak but faces an uphill climb as a short-notice replacement for Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira. The pick is Tybura by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Ryan LaFlare (12-1) vs. Roan Carneiro (21-10): New fans may struggle to remember, but LaFlare was building quite a resume for himself in 2015 before another in a long line of injuries sidelined him for over a year. The southpaw wrestler, who specializes in blending long, precise strikes with clean shots and creative scrambles, will have his work cut out for him when he returns against Carneiro, a jiu-jitsu specialist who will be happy to engage in the kind of nice and flowy ground exchanges LaFlare prefers. Carneiro’s striking will probably be his downfall, however. In truth, the Brazilian has good power in his punches and kicks and even throws some decent combinations. His problem is that he allows himself to be backed up and simply does not seem to have much confidence in his kickboxing. Carneiro will often throw a wild flurry of desperate strikes in an attempt to work himself into a takedown or clinch, and LaFlare’s wrestling and striking are too well integrated for that to work, so long as he is fully healed. The pick is LaFlare by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Phillipe Nover (11-7-1) vs. Rick Glenn (18-4-1): Glenn was not able to show his true abilities in his UFC debut, a short-notice affair in which the career featherweight took on lightweight contender Evan Dunham. Glenn was largely picked apart and taken down numerous times. Nonetheless, he was able to show some of what makes him an effective fighter, absorbing everything that Dunham could throw at him and staging an impressive rally in Round 3 by simply refusing to back off or quit throwing. Glenn is a long-armed volume puncher with considerable power and a vicious clinch game. There is no question that Nover will enjoy an athletic advantage, at least in terms of explosive speed. He may also be able to take down Glenn and control him in the early rounds. Nover is also famously inconsistent, however, and Glenn will spend every minute of this bout marching forward and throwing ropey punches. Consider these numbers: Even in a fight in which he was outstruck by 86 significant strikes, Glenn still landed more than twice as many blows as Nover does on average. I expect that will be a difficult gap for Nover to close. Glenn by third-round TKO is the pick.

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