Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Edgar vs. Faber’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Gegard Mousasi (36-5-2, 3-2 UFC) vs. Costas Philippou (13-4, 6-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This is an intriguing clash of ranked middleweights. Mousasi came into the UFC with a great deal of hype behind him, but so-so results have left him on the outside looking in at the division’s elite. A win over Dan Henderson in January has him back on the winning track following a blowout loss to Ronaldo Souza. Philippou was on a roll, but consecutive uncompetitive outings against Francis Carmont and Luke Rockhold lowered his stock before a knockout win over Lorenz Larkin moved him back up. The winner will have a claim on a top-ranked opponent in a stacked weight class.

Mousasi is dangerous everywhere. A former boxer, he works behind a stabbing jab, crisp right hand and slashing low and middle kicks. One of the more defensively sound fighters in the division, he consistently pulls his head off the centerline, which both disguises his strikes and makes him extremely difficult to hit cleanly.

Power is not his strong suit and he does not work at a blistering pace, but he is steady, consistent and has outstanding footwork. While defensive wrestling was a serious problem earlier in Mousasi’s career, he only really struggles now with chain-wrestling against the cage. Offensively, Mousasi has nice trips and throws in the clinch, and he also throws sharp knees. On the mat, Mousasi’s guard is active and dangerous, with good triangle-armbar chains and slick sweeps, though strong top players can control him. On top and in the scrambles, however, Mousasi is a legit killer, with a quick move to the back and lethal submissions.

The Cyprus-born Philippou is a striker first and foremost. Also a former boxer, his hands are the centerpiece of his approach. He probes with the jab and then strings together powerful combinations that he often punctuates with a violent left hook. The occasional low kick gives opponents something else to think about. All of his shots carry real power, and while he is not Michael Bisping in terms of his pace, he works quickly enough to win decisions. Philippou’s game obviously depends on his takedown defense, which is generally rugged enough to keep him upright, but the better wrestlers he has fought have cracked it without too much trouble. On the mat, Philippou offers little, especially from his back. In sum, Philippou is a limited but dangerous fighter.

BETTING ODDS: Mousasi (-505), Philippou (+365)

THE PICK: This matchup drastically favors Mousasi. He is longer and more skilled on the feet, works at a quicker pace and is worlds better on the mat if the fight goes there. I expect Mousasi to take apart Philippou with his jab, crack him with rights and generally dismantle him. The pick is Mousasi by wide decision.

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