Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Edgar vs. Faber’

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Mark Munoz (13-6, 8-6 UFC) vs. Luke Barnatt (8-2, 3-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The veteran Munoz, of Filipino descent, gets his retirement fight in front of the Manila crowd against Englishman Barnatt. Munoz was once a consensus top-5 middleweight but has fallen off a cliff in his last several outings, with consecutive losses to Lyoto Machida, Gegard Mousasi and Roan Carneiro. Barnatt looked promising coming out of “The Ultimate Fighter 17” and started his UFC career with a three-fight winning streak, but he has since dropped consecutive split decisions to Sean Strickland and Roger Narvaez.

The 6-foot-6 Barnatt entered the UFC as a raw, guns-blazing pressure fighter, but seems to have lost himself a bit in his last several outings. His formerly high output has dropped into a much more lackadaisical pace, and as his activity has dropped off, so too have his results. Barnatt’s strike selection has not changed much -- he still works behind a rangy jab and consistent diet of round or front kicks -- but his crisp right hand comes less often, and he never really seems to commit to his strikes.

Defense is also a problem, as he relies too heavily on his height and length to keep him out of danger. When tied up on the inside, Barnatt throws vicious knees and elbows and has a nice arsenal of trips and throws, and it is possible that the clinch is his best area of skill. He is extremely difficult to take down, and on the mat, he prefers to scramble and look for the back. The Englishman is promising but badly needs to reevaluate his approach and figure out what kind of fighter he wants to be.

Sadly, Munoz -- one of the truly good guys in MMA -- appears to be at the end of his tether as a fighter. His athleticism has declined, and his inability to take a shot has worsened to the point that any absorbed strike could be the end of the fight. Striking was never Munoz’s strongest suit, but he can throw solid power hooks and low kicks as he works his way into wrestling range. His takedown defense is not elite and his shot is not terribly explosive, but once in on the hips, he chain wrestles beautifully and finishes with authority. His mat work is excellent, and he melds wrestling-style control with solid passes and vicious ground strikes. Once an excellent scrambler, Munoz has been consistently beaten in the transitions of late, and it is hard not to see his age showing in that facet of his game.

BETTING ODDS: Barnatt (-165), Munoz (+135)

THE PICK: As underwhelming as Barnatt has looked in his last two fights, Munoz seems truly shot. Moreover, the Englishman has always had outstanding takedown defense, and I cannot see how Munoz could win a striking match given his cracked chin, subpar defense and lack of offensive output. Either Barnatt outpoints Munoz or lands something substantial; the latter seems more likely. The pick is Barnatt by knockout in the second round.

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