Preview: UFC 314 ‘Volkanovski vs. Lopes’

Lightweights

Paddy Pimblett (22-3, 6-0 UFC) vs. Michael Chandler (23-9, 2-4 UFC)

ODDS: Pimblett (-148), Chandler (+124)

How far up the ladder can Pimblett climb? The proud Liverpool, England, native has certainly gotten some love from the UFC’s promotional machine, and rightfully so. “The Baddy” has some undeniable charisma and clear marketability as one of the faces of British mixed martial arts at the moment. However, in terms of his fighting career, his UFC tenure has been an exercise in waiting for the other shoe to drop in terms of Pimblett suffering his first loss inside the Octagon. Pimblett’s ground game is quite impressive, but getting to those skills has consistently proven to be an adventure. Pimblett’s striking technique is an absolute mess with very little defense, working only thanks to his combination of size, durability and doggedness. Pimblett got some clearly advantageous matchmaking in his rise, but even then, some of those wins were close enough that there was the hope—at least from his detractors’ point of view—that he would suffer a loss next time around. Luigi Vendramini hit him a ton in Pimblett's UFC debut, and a controversial 2022 decision win over Jared Gordon saw the American get a lot of good work done before taking his foot off the gas. Pimblett’s lone fight of 2023, a decision win over Tony Ferguson, was a clear victory. Even that was an ugly affair that saw Pimblett peter out even against a fighter who was long past his effectiveness. With that background, it seemed like Pimblett’s July 2024 fight against Bobby Green would be where the Englishman got a test he couldn’t pass, but instead, it wound up as a dominant victory within three and a half minutes. It was a disastrous performance from Green, but to Pimblett’s credit, he at least showed some newfound patience against an opponent with sharp enough counters to knock him out. Pimblett’s game might be the furthest thing from pretty, but it’s time to accept that it’s at least effective enough to keep him relevant for the next few years at the very least; and with a win here over Chandler, he’s probably one more victory at most away from a title shot.

Chandler is in an odd spot at the moment, as the former Bellator standout’s UFC career has gone about as well as expected in terms of highlights and excitement, allowing him to consistently stay in the contender mix. The only problem has been an actual lack of success, as “Iron Mike” has only won in two of his six trips to the Octagon. In this late-career form, Chandler gets by on his horsepower and a knack for hunting out moments, enough so that he’s only needed the two wins to build a highlight reel. His dominant debut win over Dan Hooker was a clear statement, and while his 2022 knockout of Ferguson was also during the former interim champion’s late-career slide, the brutality of the finish is all that anyone else really members. Even in most of Chandler’s losses, he throws out and absorbs enough offense to put together a “Fight of the Year” contender. Everything Chandler does is thrown with maximum power and he does a surprisingly solid job of eventually finding second and third winds, resulting in massive momentum changes where he’s either on the verge of finishing his opponent or scratching and clawing—sometimes literally—to bring himself back from the brink of implosion. However, since his 2022 loss to Dustin Poirier, Chandler’s career has been a mess, mostly thanks to his insistence on facing Conor McGregor in a big-money fight that was perennially on the books for the better part of two years. A filmed season of “The Ultimate Fighter” didn’t go anywhere for about a year until the fight was finally announced in June 2024, only to wind up scrapped a few weeks out. Chandler eventually gave up the ghost enough to instead take on Charles Oliveira the following November, though it’s difficult to say the fight did a ton to keep Chandler relevant as a title contender. He survived longer than he did in their first fight, a one-sided win for the Brazilian in 2021, but it was mostly five rounds of dominance by Oliveira save for the occasional big moment—often foul-aided—by the American. At any rate, this fight should be madness, as Pimblett has a game set to implode against an opponent who can finally find his breaking point, while Chandler has an entire approach built around pressing himself to the brink of implosion. Chandler should be able to hit Pimblett the hardest he has ever been hit in his career early. However, unless he gets the finish, Pimblett seems like the right type of fighter to find a submission once Chandler has to recharge and regroup. Something will have gone either terribly wrong or terribly right if this fight needs to take advantage of its five-round co-main event status. The pick is Chandler via first-round knockout.

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Volkanovski vs. Lopes
Pimblett vs. Chandler
Silva vs. Mitchell
Rodriguez vs. Freire
Krylov vs. Reyes
The Prelims