Preview: UFC 308 ‘Topuria vs. Holloway’

Middleweights

#13 MW | Khamzat Chimaev (13-0, 7-0 UFC) vs. #3 MW | Robert Whittaker (26-7, 17-5 UFC)

ODDS: Chimaev (-245), Whittaker (+200)

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

Chimaev’s career is most notable for his inactivity in recent years, which is a stark contrast to how things started, since his quick turnarounds were one of the things that helped him take the UFC by storm in 2020. As the pandemic forced the UFC to essentially book cards on the fly, Chimaev was able to debut with a dominant win over John Phillips and then run over Rhys McKee a mere 10 days later. Chimaev quickly knocked out Gerald Meerschaert within two months of the McKee fight, and the UFC looked set to make him a contender by the end of the year, booking him in a main event against Leon Edwards. However, the fight never happened, and that was almost the end of Chimaev’s career, as he briefly retired due to complications from COVID-19 before eventually returning with a dominant win over Jingliang Li—albeit 13 months after the victory over Meerschaert. Chimaev at least kept up a regular schedule over the next year or so, and a decision victory over Gilbert Burns in April 2022 was a huge proof of concept for him as an elite welterweight. His wrestling, power and durability all held up over three rounds in what turned out to be an entertaining war, but those good vibes were gone by Chimaev’s next fight, during which he proved he was no longer a welterweight at all. The UFC gave him a plum main event spot for what figured to be a one-sided win over Nate Diaz, but Chimaev instead missed weight by nearly 10 pounds, forcing an entire reshuffling of the card that ended with him quickly submitting Kevin Holland at middleweight. It would be over a year until Chimaev returned, now as a full-time middleweight, and his lone fight of 2023 was a mixed bag. Former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman stepped in on late notice to take on Chimaev. After Chimaev looked excellent for a round, what followed was a middling performance that nearly handed Usman the decision. Chimaev was tabbed to headline the UFC’s debut in Saudi Arabia against Whittaker earlier this year, but yet another worrying illness took him out of the fight, which raises more questions about exactly what form he will show up in. That all gets answered here in a rebooking against Whittaker that remains a five-round fight.

Whittaker is seemingly frozen out of the middleweight title picture at the moment, but this marks an excellent opportunity to score a big win and try to force the UFC’s hand. “The Reaper” was a perfectly fine welterweight at the start of his UFC career but unlocked something special once he moved up to middleweight in 2014. He was undersized, but his newfound speed advantage made him an absolutely electric striker while now having the cardio to keep up the pace. What followed was a clean rise to title contention, particularly after Whittaker showed some newfound wrestling chops to turn back Ronaldo Souza in 2017. Whittaker beat Yoel Romero for an interim title a few months later, and he looked like the next great middleweight and a huge potential star for the Australian market. Instead, Whittaker’s title reign never truly got going. Whittaker was promoted to full-time champion after the retirement of Georges St. Pierre rather than getting the shine off of beating the legend, and some career-threatening injuries kept him out of action for the better part of two years, only for him to return home and get dominated by Israel Adesanya. Whittaker continued to fine-tune his game all while clearly being the second-best middleweight in the world but never truly got out of Adesanya’s shadow, particularly after “The Last Stylebender” won a much closer rematch in 2022. A 2023 loss to Dricus Du Plessis appeared to be a worrying sign for Whittaker’s title hopes going forward, but it has aged about as well as it could with Du Plessis going on to become middleweight champion. The result makes a title rematch a tough sell, but Du Plessis’ success and Whittaker’s sharp performances in the time since suggest that the former champion is far from done. It’s unlikely that Whittaker can starch Chimaev as quickly as he did Ikram Aliskerov in June, but there is the chance for him to get a lot of strong work done over the course of 25 minutes. As an undersized middleweight, Whittaker has always struggled against physical bullies, which is a clearly accurate descriptor of Chimaev. While Chimaev has gutted out some tough decisions in the past, it’s hard to say he has done much to prove himself as a capable five-round fighter; if anything, his ability to pour on the pace for multiple rounds has slowly diminished, possibly thanks to his persistent health issues. Chimaev should get off to a hot start and could just run over Whittaker right then and there. However, while Chimaev has done a solid enough job of fighting through exhaustion, Whittaker should be able to pick up a lot of steam as the fight goes on. The worry is that Whittaker might overextend himself and walk into some takedowns, but one of the major adjustments of his recent fights has been that he’s much better at picking his spots to avoid becoming overaggressive. Chimaev will not be an easy out, but as he loses energy and gets sloppier, Whittaker should be able to turn up the heat and could break this fight open by the championship rounds. The pick is Whittaker via fifth-round stoppage.

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Topuria vs. Holloway
Chimaev vs. Whittaker
Murphy vs. Ige
Ankalaev vs. Rakic
Magomedov vs. Petrosyan
The Prelims