Preview: UFC 275 ‘Teixeira vs. Prochazka’

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UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship

C | Valentina Shevchenko (22-3, 11-2 UFC) vs. #4 WFLW | Taila Santos (19-1, 4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Shevchenko (-630), Santos (+450)

Shevchenko will probably lose her flyweight championship at some point, but it will be a huge surprise whenever it happens. The 125-pound weight class was not an option when Shevchenko made her late-notice UFC debut in 2015, so “Bullet” instead went about affirming herself as the second-best bantamweight on the roster, only losing her two bouts to Amanda Nunes. Both were nip-tuck affairs that could have gone Shevchenko’s way on the scorecards, but each showed the flaws in her approach, at least at 135 pounds. Shevchenko is a cautious fighter by default, so she can be lured into a dreadfully low-volume affair, and despite her striking background, the best parts of her game involve her clinch work and wrestling, each of which proved less effective against larger opponents. The UFC eventually added the flyweight division, and since then, Shevchenko has wrecked shop, beginning with a brutally unfair annihilation of Priscila Cachoeira to establish herself as a top contender. In her natural weight class, Shevchenko has gone from undersized bantamweight to flyweight powerhouse, still retaining a combination of speed and power on the feet that keeps her as a knockout threat. In a division that has mostly been filled with aging veterans thus far, none have been able to touch Shevchenko to date. Jennifer Maia lasted 25 minutes and won a round from Shevchenko, but opponents like Katlyn Chookagian, Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy have each rightfully earned their title shots, only to find themselves completely outclassed against the champion. From an intrigue standpoint, the good news is that there is a new crop of young talent coming up the ranks to challenge Shevchenko. However, the worry is that with Shevchenko cleaning out the division, they will wind up getting rushed to title shots long before they are ready.

With that backdrop, Brazil’s Santos is the first young gun to step up to the plate. Santos came to the UFC by beating an exceptionally poor level of competition on the regional scene but still looked like a worthy prospect. To her credit, she did crush those opponents, and she showed off a well-rounded set of fundamentals backed by an impressive level of physicality. At the UFC level, Santos’ learning curve took seemingly all of one fight, as her lone loss was her 2019 debut against Mara Romero Borella—a physical opponent who was able to neutralize the Brazilian and stall things into a relatively even fight. Santos has not been in much trouble since, rebounding with four straight wins that included an impressive first-round submission of Joanne Wood in November. Yet, those victories all have a common thread: They have come against opponents who are more skilled than physical and have historically struggled against better athletes. It would be nice if Santos had been able to prove her ability to come out on top against another standout athlete, but given the state of the division at the moment, if she winds up proving that point, it will have to be here. There is at least the potential drama that if Santos can find a big moment over the course of the fight, she has both the knockout power and submission skills to take advantage and find a finish where others cannot. However, if Shevchenko can overpower Santos and take the clinch away from her, which seems likely, then this is the champion’s fight to lose. Shevchenko could also make this all a moot point and outwrestle the challenger from the jump. If Santos can further refine her skills and find her way back to a rematch, this could be an interesting pairing in a few years, but right now, it looks like she is challenging for the title much too soon. The pick is Shevchenko via second-round stoppage.

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Teixeira vs. Prochazka
Shevchenko vs. Santos
Zhang vs. Jedrzejczyk
Kape vs. Bontorin
Della Maddalena vs. Emeev
The Prelims