Preview: UFC 274 ‘Oliveira vs. Gaethje’

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

C | Rose Namajunas (11-4, 9-3 UFC) vs. #2 WSW | Carla Esparza (18-6, 9-4 UFC)

ODDS: Namajunas (-195), Esparza (+165)

Though there were a few strawweight fights in the UFC beforehand, the division truly kicked off with the inaugural title fight between these two castmates from “The Ultimate Fighter” in December 2014, so it is neat to see things come full-circle as they battle over the title once again. That fight saw Esparza mostly run through a raw version of Namajunas—and kicked off a UFC career full of highs and lows that has coalesced into “Thug Rose” being the top 115-pounder in the world at the moment. Namajunas had just three pro fights under her belt leading into the Esparza bout, but she had already marked herself as a top prospect to watch. She scored a 12-second flying armbar in just her second bout and stood out as a dynamic fighter and someone with natural magnetism over the course of the “The Ultimate Fighter” season. However, Esparza leaned on her wrestling to blow through the many gaps in Namajunas’ game at the time, which foreshadowed a through line during her career. Historically, Namajunas has caved against opponents who are able to bully her. That is in part due to Namajunas’ very public struggles with anxiety and mental health, which truly became part of her narrative in her 2017 and 2018 fights against Joanna Jedrzejczyk. The Polish kickboxer was the dominant champion at the time and more than willing to bring up Namajunas’ perceived mental weaknesses, making it an inspirational moment when the Milwaukee native knocked her out in just a shade over three minutes. Namajunas then put in the most consistent performance of her career in a five-round decision win to defend her title in a rematch, but things quickly went sideways in her next fight—a title defense against Jessica Andrade. Namajunas got off to a blistering start but got dropped on her head in a clinch and knocked out to lose the title, subsequently raising some concerns that she would walk away from the sport. Nevertheless, Namajunas has fought her demons once again. She held on to win a rematch against Andrade, then won her title back from Weili Zhang in April 2021 before scoring another gutsy decision win over the Chinese star in November. There is still the tense feeling that this could go south at any moment, but a victory in a rematch over Esparza would be another piece of what is shaping up to be an all-time great legacy for Namajunas, at least as far as this division is concerned.

As for Esparza, her reign as the UFC’s inaugural strawweight champ was short-lived. Just a few months later, she would lose her first defense to Jedrzejczyk in what wound up as a one-sided battering. From there, “Cookie Monster” became somewhat of an afterthought. She was still a relevant and successful fighter but did not maintain a particularly active schedule, and her wrestling-heavy style did not do her many favors as far as being placed prominently on the card. After losses to Claudia Gadelha and Tatiana Suarez in 2018, it seemed like Esparza was finally hitting a ceiling in a division filling up with athletic talent. However, she has not lost since. Esparza is now riding a five-fight winning streak, with victories over Virna Jandiroba, Alexa Grasso and Marina Rodriguez all aging impressively. Her last win, roughly a year ago over Xiaonan Yan, was an impressive bit of business, as well. With Esparza usually being a decision machine that has to ride out some narrow margins at times, it was good to see her pour out an absolute mauling on Yan and earn a second-round stoppage. That is especially needed heading into this fight with Namajunas; without the threat of a finish, it seems unlikely that Esparza can thread the needle of her wrestling-heavy gameplan over the course of five rounds against her best opponent yet. Esparza should be able to find some early success with her wrestling—if she fails to do so, the fight might be over within minutes—and from there, as they often do, the questions center on how Namajunas mentally handles that adversity. Unless getting taken down by Esparza particularly dredges up some sort of traumatic memory for Namajunas, the champion has shown more than enough grittiness and heart to take this over. Watching the first fight back, Namajunas is a completely different fighter with sharper technique and much more consistency who will not give Esparza nearly as many openings this time around, even beyond the mental improvements she has made during her fights. She should be able to tire Esparza out if the challenger has any sort of wrestling success through her grappling skill, and the margin on the feet is only going to get greater as the fight goes on. This should be a game effort as always from Esparza, but it could get ugly by the end.

FEELY'S PREDICTION: The pick is Namajunas via third-round stoppage.

Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Namajunas vs. Esparza
Chandler vs. Ferguson
St. Preux vs. Rua
Cerrone vs. Lauzon
UFC 274 Prelims