Preview: UFC 301 Prelims

Lightweights

Myktybek Orolbai (12-1-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Elves Brener (16-3, 3-0 UFC)

ODDS: Orolbai (-285), Brener (+230)

Brener might have been the UFC’s most surprising success story of 2023, and he gets the chance to kick off 2024 in style. Brener showed little prior to his late-notice UFC debut against Zubaira Tukhugov but managed to swipe a controversial split decision victory through sheer durability and pressure to score one of the biggest upsets of the year. Brener’s luck figured to correct itself when he was subsequently matched with Guram Kutateladze, another top prospect who figured to run through the Brazilian. Instead, Brener outlasted his much more highly touted opponent and scored a third-round stoppage in another massive upset. After an entertainingly violent win over late replacement Kaynan Kruschewsky in November, Brener’s fighting against the odds once again, this time opposite an impressive Kazakh prospect. Orolbai made his own late-notice UFC debut last November and looked like a prospect to watch ahead of time. A mauling wrestler for most of his career, Orolbai showed a rapidly improving striking game that figured to make him a problem in a few years’ time. But his debut performance suggests he might be ready right now, as he ran through a dangerous welterweight in Uros Medic before ending things with a second-round submission. Orolbai now cuts down to lightweight, where he potentially could be a powerhouse, and the call is that he can get by a tricky test here. The weight cut might hurt Orolbai’s gas tank enough that Brener could pull his usual trick of outlasting opponents through attrition, but the Kazakh fighter’s wrestling should provide a safety valve to grind out a win. The pick is Orolbai via decision.

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