The Ultimate Fighting Championship now hops back on its pogo stick for three straight weeks of MMA action. The first Saturday of October receives a show held in the confines of the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and just two ranked competitors sit on the billing and not against one another. It is a mixed bag of matchups throughout the abbreviated lineup, and the betting lines are equally mixed, ranging from a pick’em to a favorite nearly at -500. Join the UFC Fight Night 229 edition of Prime Picks as we dive into the duration of the headlining attraction, pitch two favored folks from Eastern Europe and see defense as the primary factor in the opener.
Grant Dawson-Bobby Green Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-130)
The UFC intentionally made this five-round encounter, matching its No. 10 lightweight in Dawson against the fringe contender in Green. There was no replacement, switcheroo or larger battle set on top of the lineup that fell apart. In the red corner, Dana White’s Contender Series Season 1 signee Dawson has strung together a nine-fight unbeaten streak with a draw along the way in the UFC. In the blue stands Strikeforce vet Green, who has teetered on the edge of a .500 promotional record for several years. The organization’s decision to slow-roll Dawson has finally earned him a place in a main event, although he is the prohibitive -425 in what some believe is a mismatch. While Dawson is heavily favored and expected to prevail, it may not be quick.
With eight wins and one bout scored even on the sport’s highest proving ground, Dawson has been far from impeccable in several ways. “KGD” holds the unfortunate distinction of being one of a few competitors to miss weight in two different weight classes, as he came in heavy at featherweight before moving up to 155 pounds, only to miss there, as well, in 2022. It may be a bit unfair to call the 29-year-old a frontrunner at this stage in his career, but Ricky Glenn had Dawson in all sorts of trouble as the brick that hit back in their 2021 meeting. Since moving from the defunct Glory MMA camp to the greener pastures of American Top Team, Dawson has shored up his deficiencies by becoming an even greater nullifying force when things hit the mat. Shutting down 2016 Olympic silver medalist wrestler Mark O. Madsen and controlling him for most of their match was spectacular. He will be tested if Green can stave off takedown attempts and make the match a standup affair.
Green may be one of the last great representatives of the old sprawl-and-brawl combat style made famous by names like Kazushi Sakuraba, Chuck Liddell and Robbie Lawler. Difficult to take down and even harder to keep there, Green can excel while pocket boxing and is not afraid if someone tries to jam him against the fence. Even future champion Islam Makhachev could not deposit Green on his back on his first attempt. Dawson prefers to chain takedowns to take the fight down, knowing that his first try may not get the job done. This may eventually work on a skilled anti-wrestler like Green, but it may take time to succeed. As Dawson looks to take the fight to a more horizontal plane, Green will try his hardest to keep a wide berth and potshot “KGD” from any distance he can find. Grant’s chin has shown the ability to hold up during oncoming fire, and “King” has registered one knockout since 2014. Unless Green hits his age cliff—he recently turned 37—he can make this a competitive fight or at least survive on the mat until the over hits.
Ion Cutelaba (-165)
At age 29, Cutelaba holds 15 UFC appearances under his belt. Still, his record in those sits well below .500. For all of his bluster, the Moldova native remains a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. On any given day, “The Hulk” could smash most men who compete at light heavyweight. On others, he will walk face-first into a flying knee or dive head-first into a guillotine choke. The fight IQ cannot be counted on for him, and despite this, he comes into his pairing with surging ex-heavyweight Philipe Lins as a moderate betting favorite. Part of this may be based on violence potential or the memories fans and bettors have of his ludicrous finishes. Cutelaba throws practically nothing but power, and Lins has had his chin checked numerous times. By the never-failing transitive property of MMA math, Cutelaba wrecked Tanner Boser, who smashed Lins. Suppose Lins fights to his strengths, weaponizing what will be a superior reach by fighting behind a jab and continuously moving. In that case, he can let Cutelaba swing at the air until he turns it on. Instead, the appeal of Cutelaba stinging an aging “Monstro” with strikes and putting him away—the stoppage is -110—is too decent to ignore.
The Moldovan will not simply have a puncher’s chance regarding his battle with Lins. The former Professional Fighters League heavyweight tournament winner can sometimes find himself in an ill-advised striking contest where he may have superior technique but opts to throw down instead. A slugfest with Cutelaba is the worst thing he can do, even if “The Hulk” is not immune to damage himself. The most underrated facet of Cutelaba’s game is his powerful wrestling, and while Lins’ takedown defense has been impregnable thus far in the Octagon, he has only had to defend against four attempts. It would work in his best interest if Lins could slow Cutelaba down, dodging the haymakers and keeping it a low-volume, tactical affair. Before the dust settles, Cutelaba’s inaccurate but vicious blows can find their home, and Lins will have to do some in-cage soul searching on how to keep with it or get put away.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-165)
The rebirth of former title challenger Kowalkiewicz has been nothing short of impressive to watch unfold since the middle of 2022, as some expected five straight losses would send the Polish woman either into retirement or off the roster. Instead, Kowalkiewicz took a page out of the “Rocky 3” playbook to train with a former opponent in Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and this work at American Top Team has worked wonders for her thus far. As the losses piled up—against extremely stiff competition in future champs Jessica Andrade and Alexa Grasso, as well as top contenders Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Xiaonan Yan—Kowalkiewicz looked over it. Her skills dulled, potentially as a symptom of crossing the age threshold of 35 as a 115-pounder, and her interest in getting punched in the face waned. Now, she looks better than ever, and fellow KSW combatant Diana Belbita may be just another name on her list to power through.
The UFC is treating Kowalkiewicz like an up-and-comer instead of someone who fought for a UFC title, which is the fairer matchmaking path given her slump. Belbita holds two wins in the UFC over Maria Oliveira, who is off the roster, and Hannah Goldy, who is barely clinging to it. The winning performances for “The Warrior Princess” of late have been clinical, high-volume affairs where takedowns inevitably came and went and Belbita recovered to put more hands and elbows on faces. Based on the approaches of these two women, three rounds of standup are likely, and takedown efforts may only come if one gets stung in an exchange. Kowalkiewicz excels in low-power boxing matches and can keep a pace even if things do not go her way. Another way to come up with some bonus cash for this fight and the match to follow is to string together the overs; the lines of both fights lasting beyond 2.5 rounds combine for -186, which should be perfectly safe, barring an unexpected armbar out of nowhere.
J.J. Aldrich (+115)
Aldrich is the more defensively sound competitor from both grappling and striking departments when stacked up to Montana De La Rosa. Whether by fighting off takedown attempts and making foes pay for their tries or by using her fairly crisp boxing to open up strikes on the feet, Aldrich has succeeded by forcing fighters to make mistakes against her over the years. Far from an offensively dominant fighter—her knockout of Na Liang in August marked her first stoppage win of her Octagon tenure that began in 2016—Aldrich has stayed a step above many women by simply being more well-rounded. Cardio and decent fundamentals can get one far in divisions like women’s flyweight, and a few more wins in the top-heavy divisions could earn her a Top 15 ranking. Against the grappler-first De La Rosa, Aldrich has the skills to keep the Montanan at bay and notch the slight upset.
De La Rosa excels when grounding the woman across from her, but it is not guaranteed that a takedown or three means she will win the fight. Seven of her 10 UFC outings have seen her hit at least one takedown, but she has been at the statistical striking disadvantage in half of her appearances. Submissions have dried up when facing off against sterner competition, as has her success in the cage of late. Even this far into her career, the 28-year-old remains a means-to-an-end striker, and her power—beyond catching a fatiguing Mara Romero Borella with a right hand—has never been a strong suit. The pressure will all be on Aldrich to stifle level changes, shut down shots from range and, above all, fight tooth-and-nail to get back to her feet should she get taken down. Much of the fight may go down in the clinch, but the Elevation Fight Team trainee has the skill set to foil the more one-dimensional De La Rosa.