The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will cobble together a card to stage at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas in what should be a quiet house for still undetermined reasons. Few matchups may be relevant from a rankings perspective, but the majority of them bring betting odds with a favorite within -200 or closer. Join the UFC Fight Night 211 edition of Prime Picks as we navigate through four prop bets to keep matters fresh, including a -1000 fighter who can find nearly even money for an expected and reasonable outcome.
Mackenzie Dern Wins by Submission (-105)
It should come as little surprise that the Brazilian jiu-jitsu star is heavily favored against Xiaonan Yan, a woman who lost in 2021 by being thoroughly outgrappled. This five-round affair, a time frame that will be new to the Chinese contender, looks to be an extremely favorable one for Dern. In two of her last four appearances, Yan has relied heavily on her wrestling to drag the fight down, and this is the worst possible option for her. If Yan gets it done, it will likely be by decision (+335), but her gameplan must assume that the floor is lava. Even though Dern’s takedown success rate is extremely subpar, she seems to manage to get things down every fight, and it will only take one opportunity for her to execute the submission.
Dern’s striking, even this far into her career as a Top 10 strawweight, remains at a means-to-an-end level. Relying on overhand rights to close distance and clinch up in pursuit of a trip or body lock or swinging to duck down for a single-leg largely remain her paths to close the distance. Despite this statistical inability to land a takedown, Dern still manages to pull for submissions at a high rate for her division. The Phoenix-born Brazilian manages to put any opponent in danger should the fight hit the mat, and both Marina Rodriguez and Tecia Torres escaped rough second rounds in their encounters with her.
Yan’s volume striking is where she can succeed, keeping the fight on the feet and using crisp boxing combinations to disrupt the forward-heavy attack of her opponent. Kicks may be dangerous for her, should Dern look to snatch one up for a takedown of any kind. Even if Dern fails to land most of her attempts, she manages to create scrambles out of nowhere and usually finds her way on top of those. Yan must avoid those situations at all costs, pushing off in clinch attempts and making Dern pay for telegraphed singles from a distance. The threat of the takedown from the favorite, however, should nullify Yan’s hands. Carla Esparza did just that, although her wrestling chops are far superior, and Dern can look to emulate those successes. Once the fight hits the mat, it is only a matter of time until Dern gets the tap. Considering she has never before landed a knockout and that she rarely even tries to strike when getting the fight down, a submission is the likely finish outcome and one where even money should make it pay off.
Sodiq Yusuff Wins by KO/TKO (-130)
In this short-notice featherweight affair, Yusuff holds practically every advantage against Don Shainis. “Super Sodiq” will come in as the taller man, longer in the arms, younger and notably faster. Level of competition also sits firmly in Yusuff’s favor, with Shainis’ recent winning streak including a first-round knockout of Jay Ellis in April. To note, Massachusetts’ Shainis procured the 100th stoppage over the notorious Ellis. With Shainis stepping up on a few weeks’ notice and bettors aware of the danger that Yusuff presents, the latter is a massive -1000 favorite. The prop of his getting the knockout—his preferred method of getting a finish—drops that down to a solid play.
Stocky for the weight class—he has fought as high as 170 pounds—at 5-foot-6, Shainis prefers to use his slightly lower center of gravity to employ his wrestling. Like several wrestlers in the past, however, Shainis has found some success with his hands and elbows lately. Should the newcomer wish to engage in striking exchanges, Yusuff will ring his bell early and often. If he shoots in for takedowns, he will need to wrench Yusuff down and keep him there for extended periods of time. “Super Sodiq” scrambles effectively, and he is not afraid to let his kicks go even in the face of a grappler. Shainis springing the upset would be quite a shock; instead, Yusuff getting the stoppage due to strikes in some fashion—whether on the feet or by putting Shainis down and drumming him out—is the prop to watch.
Mike Davis-Viacheslav Borshchev Goes to Decision (+120)
But for Borshchev’s last fight against Marc Diakiese, this pick would have likely been instead under 2.5 rounds, with that line coming from -110 to -120 or so. However, British striker-turned-wrestler Diakiese completely and utterly exposed Borshchev’s lackluster takedown defense and showed him as quite a one-dimensional striker. “Slava Claus” did make good in his UFC debut by dicing up Dakota Bush’s liver, and Davis could walk face-first into a bomb, but it would behoove him to push his wrestling early and often. Even if he does not land takedowns, he can grind on Borshchev enough to drag the fight out and bring it to the final bell, which makes this plus-money play worthwhile.
The specific victor is not as important as the time that elapses in the bout, and it allows Borshchev to get the better of enough exchanges should Davis indeed pursue takedowns. The submission games of both men do not look to play a factor, even if Borshchev trains at Team Alpha Male and likely drills guillotine chokes on the regular. Should Davis mix things up with level changes to keep Borshchev honest, he could diminish the concern about getting his chin checked. Neither man has ever succumbed to strikes before, and unless fight IQ for “Beast Boy” goes out the window, he can prolong this match and get the judges involved.
Alexey Oleynik Wins Inside Distance (+215)
The long-awaited rumble between two of the slowest heavyweights in the UFC comes to a head on the preliminary headliner–for now–as both fighters will probably clock in within five pounds of one another, even though Oleynik measures far taller. Of the two, Oleynik is significantly more likely to register a finish, while Ilir Latifi’s best path to victory is on the scorecards (+330). Never a high-volume fighter, Latifi’s power has fallen off a cliff since moving up in weight, while he sluggishly spams takedowns and the gameplan ceases. If and when this match hits the mat, Oleynik’s shockingly effective submission game can take over, at least until he gets tired.
Neither fighter holds elite cardio, and should the fight reach beyond its midpoint, it will likely go the distance in miserably exhausting fashion. Dating back nearly a decade after his 2013 triangle choke of Tony Lopez, every one of Oleynik’s stoppages have materialized within two rounds. Even if three of Oleynik’s last five defeats have come by quick knockout, Latifi is no longer that type of threat. “The Sledgehammer” would be far better suited to engage in a sloppy brawl than pushing the fight into the clinch. His massive musculature may prevent some chokes, but the long arms of “The Boa Constrictor” can slither around the thickest neck or find an exposed limb to capitalize on this. At wide plus money, there is no need to drill down further to the Russian specifically eliciting a tap, and it also allows for him to deliver enough ground strikes to mercifully draw referee intervention.