WHO HAS THE MOST TO GAIN?
Robbie Lawler: Following a disappointing and controversial loss to Ben Askren, Lawler gets an immediate chance at redemption against Covington, the onetime interim champion and the No. 2-ranked contender at 170 pounds. With a win over Covington, Lawler can jump directly back into the title race after an up-and-down post-championship run, all while further distancing himself from the Askren debacle. In this matchup between former teammates, Lawler has the potential to be Covington’s kryptonite, implementing his stellar takedown defense to stifle and batter the former NCAA All-American wrestler on the feet, where he has a clear advantage. Lawler may not have had the best luck of late, but this fight gives “Ruthless Robbie” every chance to right the wrongs of his most recent outing and return to the form of the contender fans love.
Jim Miller: Just when everyone believed Miller was on the last leg of his career, he turns it around and churns out two stoppage wins in his last three outings. In an attempt at capitalize on newfound momentum, he draws an excellent opportunity against a fellow veteran in Clay Guida; their co-main event will put the winner in interesting territory. Despite ups and downs, Miller continues to be a big name in the lightweight division and will have a lengthy line of suitors wanting a shot to make a name off of him if he can put together his first winning streak since 2016.
Nasrat Haqparast: A 23-year-old Tristar Gym prospect, Haqparast has bounced back after a disappointing UFC debut and put together back-to-back wins. While impressing in his most recent outings, Haqparast describes himself as a finisher but will enter the Octagon against Joaquim Silva in pursuit of his first UFC stoppage. A win here would firmly put Haqparast “in the mix” with three straight victories, and it would be hard to deny him the step up in competition for which he has been looking. There is always room for a young, hungry striker in the UFC’s shark tank of a lightweight division, and Haqparast could emerge as a major player in the ever-changing landscape.
WHO HAS THE MOST TO LOSE?
Colby Covington: His back against a wall with no title shot in sight, Covington begrudgingly accepted a risky main event matchup against a former champion and teammate in Lawler. This pairing is a dangerous one for Covington, who seemingly had a championship opportunity secured, only to have the rug pulled out from under him. This looks like a lose-lose proposition for 31-year-old grinder. The American Top Team standout already stands near the front of the contenders’ line in a crowded welterweight division, and a win over Lawler does not affect his trajectory much at all. Meanwhile, a loss almost guarantees he will not be looking at a title fight at any point in the near future.
Kennedy Nzechukwu: Following two wins on Dana White’s Contender Series, much was made about Nzechukwu’s UFC debut. Standing 6-foot-5 and wielding a reach similar to that of Jon Jones, he was labeled a future star without ever having set foot inside the Octagon. Across two and a half rounds at UFC on ESPN 2, the hype machine appeared to be on the money with its assessment. However, Nzechukwu was victimized by a Hail Mary triangle choke from Paul Craig and now finds himself scrambling to avoid a 0-2 start to his UFC career. The Fortis MMA prospect will have his hands full against Stosic, a 15-fight veteran who leans on a ferocious kicking game. Another loss here has the potential to knock whatever shine remains off of Nzechukwu.
Claudio Henrique da Silva : Silva’s initial UFC run was brought to a screeching halt in 2014 when injuries began to pile up, leading to a near four-year layoff. Once the Brazilian returned to the Octagon, he picked up right where he left off, as he took home two submission wins in as many appearances -- Nordine Taleb and Danny Roberts were the prey -- and remained undefeated in the UFC. After his first two opponents withdrew from UFC on ESPN 5, Silva settled for Cole Williams -- a regional standout with an impressive 11-1 record. Silva, who has won 13 fights in a row, risks much here against a relative unknown entering the cage on short notice, as a loss at this stage of his career would drive him backward in a packed welterweight division.