UFC 95 Breakdown: The Main Card

Josh Koscheck vs. Paulo Thiago

Josh “KOS” Koscheck Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’10/170 lbs.
Age: 31
Hometown: Waynesburg, Pa.
Fighting out of: Fresno, Calif.
Record: 12-3

The breakdown: Grainy, pirated footage of Thiago suggests Koscheck should focus on his Brazilian quarry’s lacking stand-up training. While Thiago does have a solid jiu-jitsu game -- which remains a weakness for his opponent -- Koscheck has shown a rapidly improving striking arsenal and has the wrestling ability to repel a takedown from virtually any welterweight. As long as Koscheck remains focused and does not hand Thiago a submission, a sequel to his cranium-crunching knockout of Yoshiyuki Yoshida is not out of the question.

The X-Factor: Taking on an unheralded unknown always leaves open the possibility of coming in either out of shape or unfocused. While Koscheck’s Spartan work ethic makes that unlikely, it’s also no secret that the former Div. I wrestling champion’s ego has its own gravitational pull. If that ego gets in the way of Koscheck’s better judgment, he may land himself in a tight situation or even a tight triangle choke.

Paulo Thiago Scouting Report
Ht/Wt: 5’11/170 lbs.
Age: 28
Hometown: Brasilia, Brazil
Fighting out of: Brasilia, Brazil
Record: 10-0

The breakdown: Thiago winning this fight would be more shocking than Chris Brown album sales rising. With that said, Thiago’s strength, his grappling, remains the one aspect of the game Koscheck takes pains to avoid. While Thiago will not score any takedowns, he can change levels and pull guard as soon as Koscheck goes to defend the leg. From there, Thiago needs to avoid Koscheck’s face-peeling ground-and-pound while he searches for a submission.

The X-Factor: Entering the UFC as an undefeated prospect leaves you as just another face in the crowd, and Thiago is leaping from the local scene in Brazil to the bright lights of the Octagon with no stops in between. How those UFC jitters play on Thiago’s psyche will likely decide how he negotiates the almost insurmountable odds with which he’s already faced.

* * *

The bottom line: The UFC appears to be rebuilding Koscheck for a run at the title, and Thiago simply has no business being in the same cage. This will not be pretty, as Koscheck plays “Super Punch-Out” at Thiago’s expense.