Welterweights
Kyle Noke (22-8-1) vs. Keita Nakamura (31-7-2)Nakamura does not have much of a shot, but he wrestles well from the clinch. Though sometimes a little too patient in waiting for his opportunity, Nakamura has a nice selection of wrestling and judo techniques from close range, and he chains them together well, often ending up right in side control or mount after finishing. On the ground, “K-Taro” is a fantastic submission artist. Though he himself is not much of a ground striker, he remains remarkably calm under the brunt of his opponent’s strikes and sets up submissions and sweeps off of his back. On top, nearly everything Nakamura does is done with one eye on his opponent’s back; he is a true master of the back take and finds the maneuver with everything from switches to omoplatas. Fourteen of his 17 submission wins have been rear-naked chokes.
Noke’s ground game is decidedly old-school and less subtle than Nakamura’s. Noke is often too willing to play full guard, eating shots and losing time as he looks to tie up a wrist and attack with his legs. He can also play a stalling guard game, a la Anderson Silva, and that should come in useful against Nakamura.
The striking matchup is fairly lopsided in Noke’s favor. Nakamura has deceptive snap in his shots and does not go down easily, but he is stiff and awkward compared to Noke, who is less of a knockout artist and more an agent of attrition. Noke’s boxing has always been lacking, but he is now more comfortable trading shots in the pocket, and his kicking game is as dangerous as ever. Noke has excellent leg dexterity and throws a wide variety of spinning techniques in addition to the standard muay Thai round kicks. Perhaps Noke’s most dangerous technique is the front snap kick with which he brutally TKO’d Peter Sobotta in November.
THE ODDS: Noke (-175), Nakamura (+150)
THE PICK: No matter how skilled the attacker, it is always difficult to finish an opponent whose only aim is to avoid the finish. If Noke is smart, that will be the mindset he brings to the ground game in this fight; either stand up or stall. So long as Noke can survive if Nakamura gets him down, his striking arsenal will carry him. For all of the success Nakamura had against Tom Breese, he was least effective at kicking range; and it is at kicking range that he will be at Noke’s mercy. Nakamura is a true master when it comes to opportunistic subs and it would not be a surprise to see him wrap up Noke in something tight and painful, but every round begins on the feet. That is Noke’s domain. The pick is Noke by unanimous decision.
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