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FIGHT ODDS

Strikeforce ‘Melendez vs. Masvidal’ Preview: The Main Card

Tristen CritchfieldDec 14, 2011
K.J. Noons will look to snap the first two-fight losing streak of his career. | Photo: D. Mandel


Lightweights
K.J. Noons (10-4, 2-2 SF) vs. Billy Evangelista (11-1, 7-1 SF)

The Matchup: Noons owns the distinction of being the last man to defeat current UFC welterweight No. 1 contender Nick Diaz. While Diaz eventually got his revenge, the fact that Noons was able to last five rounds with the former Strikeforce champion in their rematch is a testament to his excellent boxing skill. What the San Diego-based lightweight struggled with more recently was the varied attack of Jorge Masvidal. “Gamebred” took down Noons repeatedly, while also blending in kicks and knees on the feet.

Evangelista will want to follow a similar approach and keep his opponent guessing if he is to have a chance. Simply standing and trading in the pocket will make for a short night’s work, as Noons is one of the best in the sport at using feints and unusual angles to his advantage. His power is noteworthy, as well, with eight knockout or technical knockout victories to his credit.

Evangelista’s striking is solid, but he has not been overly dominant in his signature wins. Even in triumphs over Waachim Spiritwolf and Jorge Gurgel on the Strikeforce Challengers series, Evangelista at times left himself exposed. The 31-year-old showed impressive resolve in recovering, but Noons’ talent leaves less margin for error. Evangelista will want to use leg kicks early to slow down Noons’ movement. If he can do that and then utilize his jab to set up takedowns, he will have swung the fight in his favor.

Noons is not especially comfortable fighting from his back, but if he is allowed to find a rhythm while upright, it will be extremely difficult for Evangelista to turn the tide.

The Pick: Without a reach advantage to keep Noons at bay, it is going to be difficult for Evangelista to impose his will. Noons is not as large as Masvidal, but his technical boxing skill is superior. Noons will avoid the majority of Evangelista’s attempts to take the bout to the floor, and, given time to find his rhythm, he finishes the contest with strikes by round two.