Welterweight
Max Griffin (13-4) vs. Mike Perry (11-2)ODDS: Perry (-340), Griffin (+280)
ANALYSIS: It is a standard blueprint for UFC matchmakers to start Fox main cards with a certified banger, and this welterweight contest looks like a dead certainty to deliver on that accord.
In just six fights over an 18-month span, Perry has gone from an ignominious swinger to an all-action UFC fixture, albeit a polarizing one. In his August 2016 promotional debut at UFC 202, the MMA world was repulsed when Perry knocked out Hyun Gyu Lim while his cornerman, Alex Nicholson, audibly yelled racial epithets at the South Korean. Since then, the 26-year-old has shown moderate technical growth, though he is still a bloodthirsty brawler. More importantly, the candid Floridian seems to have done some soul searching and become a more thoughtful human being, which does not exactly hurt.
Perry’s fight style is a caricature of the technical brawler. He lacks the composure and patience of Matt Brown, the platonic ideal of the art form. However, Perry is a legitimate eight-point striker who is comfortable from all three ranges. He can jab and hook with his lead left, while his right hooks and uppercuts are positively devastating, no matter the distance. When Perry can pressure, feint, make his opponent go first and then land a crushing blow, his follow-up ability is sensational. He moves his feet to keep his opponent in his crosshairs, all while varying his attacks to put the man away. If his opponent hits the deck, Perry is incredibly adroit at following up with accurate and devastating punches and elbows. While he remains hittable, the fact that he lands 4.42 significant strikes per 15 minutes while absorbing 4.65 has a lot to do with the fact that in his two UFC losses to Alan Jouban and Santiago Ponzinibbio, the significant strike differential wound up lopsided and prejudices the statistic.
Griffin, 32, is even deeper in that hole, landing 2.8 significant strikes per 15 minutes while eating 4.01. He is a profoundly flawed defensive fighter, and it is become more exaggerated at the UFC level, where he has fought better opposition and completely abandoned any pretense of well-roundedness; on the Californian regional scene, “Max Pain” was willing to clinch, wrestle and seek ground-and-pound opportunities, while in three UFC appearances, he has yet to attempt a single takedown. Griffin has, for the worse, simplified his style into that of an upright, jab-cross fighter who looks to land a single right straight counter and then follow up on the mat with coffin nails to finish.
In the broad stroke, this fight is can’t-miss-all-action material, but the style matchup favors Perry profoundly. Though Griffin will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage, Perry has shown an ability to get inside of taller fighters and absorb strikes with a granite chin. Griffin’s intentionally one-dimensional, right cross-based attack will not have the stopping power to hold off Perry, who will get into medium or close range and bomb on Griffin with both hands. Even if Griffin does pursue the clinch as he has in the past, Perry’s vicious hockey-style punching and wicked elbows and knees will tear him apart. Perry goes platinum with a knockout hit in the first round.
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