Lightweight
Eddie Alvarez (28-5) vs. Justin Gaethje (18-0)ANALYSIS: If there was a reason fans cared about “The Ultimate Fighter 26,” it was not because a new UFC champion would be crowned at its conclusion but rather the fact that the show assured us -- injuries and drug tests be damned -- that Alvarez and Gaethje would go buck wild on one another in the cage. Alvarez has said this bout will determine “the most violent man in the UFC.” Naturally, with Gaethje’s insane brawl with Michael Johnson in July sitting atop the leaderboard for “Fight of the Year” and “Round of the Year,” perhaps only another vintage Gaethje performance could unseat it.
To say Alvarez and Gaethje both live and die by the sword would be an understatement, although the latter has yet to figuratively perish in that fashion, racking up a perfect 18-0 record behind his reckless style. Alvarez often manages to sprinkle in his underrated wrestling when the need arises, but he seldom shies away from brawling even when it is to his detriment, as evidenced in his aborted no-contest with Dustin Poirier in May.
Alvarez is aggressive but not a pressure fighter by nature, preferring to move laterally around his opponent before darting in and out with right-hand leads. Meanwhile, Gaethje tends to put his hands up and march his opponents back to the fence with salvos of winging punches and low kicks before ratcheting up his output when he gets them trapped along the cage. Both men possess a devastating right uppercut, though Gaethje’s tends to come roaring from the floor, a la Mortal Kombat, while Alvarez tends to package his behind more traditional combination punching.
Aggressive pressure fighters are not Alvarez’s undoing per se, but it is an archetype with which the Philadelphia native has had issues in the past. He struggled when Conor McGregor got in his face, started swinging and never stopped and when Donald Cerrone marched him down and leg kicked liberally. Michael Chandler enjoyed his most success when he attacked Alvarez with abandon. Even fighters he knocked out, like Andre Amado and Tatsuya Kawajiri, gave Alvarez trouble early with all-offensive approaches. The former Bellator MMA champ will need to find some of his right-hand counters early to at least slow Gaethje’s roll, lest the fight come off the rails in a hurry.
Alvarez may struggle to implement his clever wrestling, too, as Gaethje was an All-American wrestler at the University of Northern Colorado. It has been a reliable defensive tool throughout his career. The wrestling engagements here figure to be short and explosive. Can Alvarez generate offense along the cage or control the clinch against Gaethje if he is unable to put him on his back and disrupt him?
There is an argument to be made that over his decade in the division Alvarez has the best lightweight resume ever, but he turns 34 in a month, has taken tons of punishment throughout his career and is facing an athlete entering his prime. Gaethje eschews defense, and obviously, this can only help Alvarez if he can lance him with a right hand and follow up. However, the stylistic tendencies of both men, right down to Alvarez getting hobbled by exactly the sort of leg kicks Gaethje throws, bodes well for “The Highlight” living up to his nickname and earning the biggest win of his career. Gaethje by raucous knockout is the pick, though even with the firepower going both ways, this bout going the full 15 minutes would not shock me.
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