Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hendricks vs. Thompson’

Light Heavyweights

Ovince St. Preux (18-7) vs Rafael Cavalcante (12-6)

THE MATCHUP: St. Preux has tried on many hats throughout his MMA career. He has played the grinder and the brawler in the past, but the role in which he feels most comfortable is that of the counterpuncher. St. Preux is supremely athletic, and most of his success at the world level stems from his speed, power and excellent timing. He is a prime example of the heights to which Sage Northcutt might ascend were he fortunate enough to compete in the shallow light heavyweight division. The obvious implication of that comparison is that, despite St. Preux’s tremendous natural gifts, he is not a fighter with a deep technical skill set.

On the feet, St. Preux loves to lead with his crushing left body kick. When his opponent realizes he cannot stand around at long range, St. Preux tries to run him into a left hand on the way in. This left is more often than not a sweeping hook, but St. Preux can redirect his power into the form of an uppercut when his opponent comes in low. When the transitions are taken away from him, however, St. Preux’s gaps begin to show. Forced into a single phase or range, he quickly runs out of ideas. This is particularly true on the ground, where fighters like Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira have managed to shut down St. Preux.

Cavalcante is unlikely to play that kind of game. Notoriously inconsistent, “Feijao” is a power striker with a muay Thai style. Like St. Preux, he throws a vicious body kick, though he also likes to attack low and high with this same weapon. He is a smart combination puncher, but he will also cover up and slip to avoid punishment when his opponent flurries, biding his time and looking for openings between his adversary’s strikes.

“Feijao” has struggled with wrestlers himself, but this seems to be more a product of poor stamina than one of technical skill. In the early going, he is actually a solid wrestler, scrambling out of trouble and using underhooks to thwart most attempts. Once the clinch has been secured, he is apt to plug away with powerful knees, though he is not averse to mixing in sneaky trip takedowns of his own. Though it is not a reliable tactic for him, “Feijao” also has a tight guillotine that further discourages the takedown.

THE ODDS: St. Preux (-385), Cavalcante (+315)

THE PICK: Though St. Preux has been far more consistent than Cavalcante of late, this is still a dangerous fight for him. Both men are fast starters with limited gas tanks, likely because neither man knows the meaning of the phrase “throwaway punch.” With two fighters that love to sling bombs, the result is never certain and often surprising. Still, this fight seems designed to get “OSP” back on the winning track. He is more apt to mix his attacks and less likely to burn himself out by throwing too much too early. He is also much more durable. “Feijao” has woken up to a flashlight and a calming voice three times in his MMA career, while St. Preux has not been knocked out since his seventh pro fight nearly seven years ago. The pick is St. Preux by second-round KO.

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