Johnson (right) file photo: Dave Mandel | Sherdog.com
Trying to pull off miracle comebacks in mixed martial arts is a losing proposition, but Johnson has proven shockingly up to the task since wrapping up his run on “The Ultimate Fighter: US vs. UK.” Riddle has been a decidedly more mundane welterweight in his own time since “TUF,” which makes him the kind of style clash Johnson has the most trouble with.
Johnson is the sort of fighter who can lock up a submission or put together a TKO in almost any situation. That offensive dynamism comes at the expense of consistency and defensive foresight, though. That’s all well and good with an opponent willing to play by those rules, but Riddle is a no-frills ground-and-pounder who has proven to be a natural at grinding opponents down into nubs.
Most of Johnson’s success on the mat comes against opponents who get into scrambles with him, and Riddle will not get into those scrambles willingly. Considering he’s a much better wrestler and has nothing short of stultifying control both from top position and the clinch, Riddle has the clear path to victory despite lacking the tools to finish the fight.
Getting into a 15-minute fight with Johnson is fraught with danger, and Riddle’s defensive skills will be tested throughout. However, Riddle has the tools to escape those tight spots and, more importantly, Johnson has nothing to stop Riddle from turning this fight into a wrestling match. That right there is why Riddle will win a challenging but clear decision.