Lightweight
Edson Barboza (19-4) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0)ANALYSIS: Not sure we will need it or not, but this fight cries out for five rounds, though that request seems all the more vain and despairing in light of us losing the scheduled Nurmagomedov-Tony Ferguson interim lightweight title fight at UFC 209 in March, when Nurmagomedov was hospitalized due to complications stemming from his weight cut. Nonetheless, this is an outstanding contest, and since Conor McGregor certainly cannot be counted on to swoop in and fight any relevant 155ers right now, the winner of this one should be bound for a bout with Ferguson, or in Barboza’s case, a rematch with “El Cucuy.”
The strategic layout for this contest is more obvious than your average high-level lightweight pairing, with the two fighters having obviously opposing, idiosyncratic styles. Nurmagomedov is the indefatigable pressure fighter, launching lead hooks and overhand rights to trap foes against the fence before unloading an unrelenting barrage of takedowns, passes, rides, punches and elbows. Barboza is a strong, slick, savvy striker; there is no strike the Brazilian cannot throw, though he uses brilliant, circular foot movement to set up superior angles on his targets before unloading with his trademark leg kicks. This is very much a bull-and-matador situation.
In a pure striking capacity, nearly every advantage belongs to the technically superior Barboza, who also will enjoy a five-inch reach advantage while being the much more ambidextrous attacker. However, Barboza’s game is built around his footwork; despite having recently authored his second Sherdog “Knockout of the Year,” he is not a multi-range brawler. At 86 percent, he has an outstanding takedown defense percentage, and overall, his ability to sprawl and quickly shuck foes from his body makes him an incredibly difficult fighter to trap. Also, while his general style remains largely the same, under the tutelage of coach Mark Henry, the 31-year-old Barboza has actually diversified his jab and lead hooks, making him even more adroit at cutting great angles on charging foes, as he did to Anthony Pettis, Gilbert Melendez and in his splattering of Beneil Dariush in March.
Barboza’s footwork and mixture of lead-hand punching and selective use of kicking arsenal must be exceptional here, because Nurmagomedov, for all his health issues, is going to storm him early and often while operating with both hands. “The Eagle” is not much of a jabber, but he will launch the left hook-overhand right to cover as much distance as possible just to grab a clinch. From there, there are single-legs, trips, high crotches, suplexes -- whatever the man wants to string together. Traditionally, from Jamie Varner to Ferguson, Barboza has faltered when he has become flustered like this, disrupted by aggressive, pressuring attackers. More than that, Nurmagomedov is not trying to recreate the Varner upset from 2012; he is trying to get to Barboza’s chest, waist and legs to begin slamming him around.
Nurmagomedov, 29, is not some power-double shooter from the perimeter. No, the Dagestan native gets to the body and alternates slams, rides and ground-and-pound to devastating effect. His return from injury in 2016 against Michael Johnson resulted in Sherdog’s 2016 “Beatdown of the Year” and saw Nurmagomedov rusty early; and it is of note that Johnson had considerable success attacking the legs and body with kicks. However, eventually the inevitable occurred: At 6.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, Nurmagmedov has the third-highest takedown rate in UFC history. He once took down Abel Trujillo 21 times, mostly with suplexes and waistlock slams. Johnson wound up trapped on bottom, pummeled and humiliated. This is more of what Barboza is tasked in dealing with, as opposed to a traditional Maurice Smith-Mark Coleman sprawl-and-brawl blueprint. Barboza is great at snaking up the fence and using butterfly guard to retake his feet, but even if he is able to do so, Nurmagomedov’s entire specialty is the rinsing and repeating of this constant slamming around opponents.
Nurmagomedov has fought just three times in over three-and-a-half years, and given the nature of his medical history, as well as Barboza’s speed and power, there are legitimate concerns to be had here. However, Nurmagomedov’s style is by and large exactly the thing that has thwarted Barboza and broken the Brazilian’s momentum over the years; meanwhile, in 24 tries, no one has been able to catch Nurmagomedov and put out his lights. The sooner Nurmagomedov pressures Barboza the better, and if he can get started fast, it could be the difference between a one-sided unanimous decision and a mid-round stoppage via endless attrition.
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