Picking & Grinning: ‘Fedor vs. Henderson’

Can Fedor Emelianenko right the ship? | Photo: J. Sherwood

Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the Strikeforce/M-1 Global “Fedor vs. Henderson” main card, which airs on Showtime at 10 p.m. ET/PT on Saturday from the Sears Centre in Hoffman Estates, Ill.

Jordan Breen: Even in spite of his recent slump, I find it hard to go against “The Last Emperor” here. Yes, he’s facing a fighter in Henderson who is absolutely more skilled than your average heavyweight, and by a good margin. However, the foes Emelianenko fell to -- Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Silva -- are by no means average. Werdum had submission skills light years beyond Henderson, and, in addition to his overwhelming physical attributes, Silva is an underrated wrestler and top-position grappler. These are exactly the skills they used to beat the Russian. Do we believe Henderson is going to land the overhand right and fell Emelianenko? I’m not sure what future awaits Emelianenko beyond this bout, but I still think he’s good enough to submit Henderson when the bout hits the floor in a fashion not unlike how he dealt with Henderson’s former Team Quest teammate Matt Lindland, though I do think this one will be far more competitive.

Guilherme Pinheiro: I’m really intrigued by this fight. Had this fight happened 18 months ago, I would have no problem picking Fedor. However, Fedor looked mortal in his last two fights, and, now, the more I think about this fight, the less I know what to make of it. Henderson is a wrestler that gets taken down more than his reputation would indicate and has also has been submitted in the past. I’m not really sure Fedor will pursue that path, which I think is his best shot at winning. On top of that, Henderson is savvy enough to navigate through Fedor’s shots standing up until the opportunity of a takedown presents itself. I’m torn about this one. I’ll go with Henderson taking this one by decision.

Tony Loiseleur: The greatest heavyweight MMA has seen thus far in Emelianenko finds himself in the unenviable position of having to fight his way back to the top after two stoppage losses. He is trying doing so against Strikeforce’s light heavyweight champion in a heavyweight bout. Certainly, the details of the matchup are head-scratchers. Typically in these situations, we’d find the troubled fighter cutting down to a lighter division for what will hopefully be a second lease on life, but for some reason, Fedor refuses to do so. It is arguable, however, that cutting to light heavyweight would change things much since that division is deeper and more competitive than heavyweight. That’s what makes this fight intriguing; more so given Henderson’s history as a weight-class agnostic fighter in the Pride Fighting Championships days. Since “Hendo” has been taken down regularly throughout his career by lesser-credentialed wrestlers, I like Fedor’s chances to get him down, but I don’t think we'll see a submission. It cannot stay there long if Henderson wants to exercise that clubbing right hand of his. I’m guessing the difference will ultimately be there in the striking; I don’t think either man will knock the other out, but I do favor Hendo’s power over Fedor’s. I expect a close fight, one in which Henderson might hurt Fedor at times but only enough to take a decision. However, since we all know how MMA fandom and punditry are, my only fear for this outcome is that if Fedor loses to a lighter opponent -- no matter how skilled, powerful and experienced we all recognize Henderson to be -- it won’t bode well for his future or legacy.

Brian Knapp: All the physical advantages rest with Emelianenko, but one has to wonder about the state of his mind, given his two recent losses. He will have a decided weight advantage in this one, perhaps as much as 30 pounds, along with the experience of having competed as a heavyweight his entire career. For all his accomplishments, Henderson has never been considered a master game planner. At times, it seems, his heart overtakes his brain in the heat of battle. Eventually, the fight with Emelianenko will hit the ground, and the submission will come for “The Last Emperor,” whose demise has been grossly overstated.

Tomasz Marciniak: This fight presents and interesting dynamic that I can’t quite get a firm handle on. Tate should be better in the early going, getting takedowns on Coenen, but I have doubts if she can keep that up for 25 minutes without getting submitted. Tate has never fought nearly as long, and she’s coming off a year-long layoff. Ultimately, I think that will be Tate’s downfall, as Coenen gets another come-from-behind submission victory.

Rob King: This is one of those fights I want to see, but, at the same time, I don’t want either girl to get a loss, as I enjoy both of them. I think this fight will be very similar to Coenen’s last fight against Liz Carmouche. Tate has better wrestling and will be able to get this fight to the ground if she likes. While there, she will be able to control Coenen until she makes that one mistake and lets Coenen lock on a fight-ending submission late in the fight.

Lutfi Sariahmed: I like Tate here in an upset. Maybe it’s because of Coenen’s performance in the Carmouche fight, but Coenen looks like she can be had in the standup game if Tate pushes the pace. Remember, too, that before the end of the fight, in which Coenen pulled off the triangle, Carmouche more than held her own on the ground. She prevented Coenen from working her submission game and overpowered her for a lot of that fight. Don’t forget Carmouche came in on two weeks’ notice, as well. Carmouche definitely gave Tate a plan to go after Coenen if she didn’t have one already. There’s no one spot in Coenen’s game that I wouldn’t be comfortable testing if I’m Tate. I’ll pick the upset giving us a new champ.

Freddie DeFreitas: I believe Tate will likely take the fight to the champion early, taking Coenen to the mat ad-nauseam and looking to pound out a referee or doctor’s stoppage. Just like the last time out in her previous tilt with Carmouche, I think Coenen hangs tough and pushes Tate into the later rounds, uncharted waters for the young American. Coenen finds the finish by submission in the final round.

Breen: Maybe it’s his overly exploited Army Ranger persona or his lack of a real, signature win, but Kennedy doesn’t get as much love as he deserves. He’s not a Top 10 middleweight, but he’s well-rounded and skillful enough to beat high-quality opponents. Lawler continues to offer a single but dreadful look to his foes: throw your low kicks, try to get your takedowns and tap me, I dare you. Incredibly, Lawler has continued to beat good fighters with this approach. However, if Kennedy can avoid the lead right hook and wild left power hand, he can outstrike Lawler from range. More pertinently, he can take him down and potentially tap him with his underrated submission game.

Pinheiro: Anyone who engages in a striking battle with Lawler is putting himself in the way of unnecessary danger. He might not be the most technical striker, but we all know that he does have one-shot knockout power. Kennedy is surely aware of that. However, fighters love to prove they can fight wherever the fight takes place, and that’s what worries me about Kennedy in this fight. If he chooses to stand up with Lawler, I believe he will find himself on the end of one Lawler’s thunderous shots. That said, my gut tells me he is smarter than that and will use his wrestling advantage to bring the fight to the mat. Kennedy grinds out a decision over Lawler.

Todd Martin: This is the sort of matchup Lawler has typically liked throughout his career. He can focus on blocking takedowns and knocking Kennedy out. However, Lawler just hasn’t looked on top of his game in recent fights. Opponents have his looping punches scouted and have been able to do well even when the fight remains standing. Takedown attempts help to keep Lawler off balance. Lawler always has the knockout punch, but I think Kennedy will exploit Lawler’s predictability and secure a decision win.

Tristen Critchfield: As long as he’s standing, Lawler has the one-punch power to finish anyone in the sport. Kennedy is efficient on his feet, but much of this bout will be about the former Army Ranger not giving Lawler opportunities. If Lawler can’t find a comfortable range, he can’t finish his opponent. Kennedy’s best chance against Lawler will be to keep the fight at close range or take him to the ground. If he can keep Lawler on the canvas, he can work for a submission. I see a back-and-forth battle here, with Lawler stalking for the kill shot but ultimately Kennedy fighting a smart fight and taking a decision.

Knapp: I could not envision a worse matchup for Daley under the Strikeforce umbrella. Woodley is an exceptional wrestler, solid tactician and superior athlete who has shown a willingness to do whatever it takes -- good, bad or ugly -- to achieve victory. That is refreshing from a young fighter, with all the knuckleheads in the stands crying for restarts whenever a fight hits the ground. I think he stays close to the Brit and wears him down with the clinch, takedowns and top control en route to a one-sided and clear-cut decision.

Sariahmed: Daley seems to have lost every fight against a fighter even remotely capable of taking him down. Woodley is certainly more than capable of that. But how will Woodley deal with the biggest fight of his career? Too many times fighters try to put on a show, as opposed to just focusing on what they’re good at. If Woodley remembers his wrestling, the rest will take care of itself. Give me Woodley by a decision that will leave Daley cursing up a storm.

Loiseleur: As much as I love to watch Daley fight -- and love even more to see him get into firefights where one man is guaranteed to be knocked out cold -- I can’t help but think this is perhaps the worst kind of matchup for him. A solid wrestler already, especially when compared to Daley’s grappling skills, Woodley will likely look unstoppable. Add to that the fact that he’s more focused on winning than any risky or silly commitment to please the crowd by courting danger, I don’t see why he wouldn’t just put Daley on his back to grind him out for the 15-minute duration. Certainly, we haven’t seen Woodley go up against a striker quite like Daley yet, but I like his natural tendencies to win him the fight here. Barring a Hail Mary strike from out of the blue before the fight hits the canvas, I have “T-Wood” by decision.

DeFreitas: As a fan of the out-spoken Brit, I must say this is arguably the worst possible pairing for Daley. While he holds an outstanding ability to end fights with either fist, time and time again Daley's takedown defence has proven to be porous at best and Woodley should take full advantage of this predominant hole. Semtex will come ever so close to landing that one fight-ending blow, but will spend the better part of 15 minutes fighting off his back as Woodley gets the nod by decision.

Marciniak: Smith strikes me as a fighter who made a career out of being iron-chinned. Unfortunately, in most cases, once such a chin is cracked, it can’t get fixed and the susceptibility to being knocked out rises. It’s a dangerous proposition against a skilled kickboxer like Saffiedine. The Belgian’s recent outings against wrestlers didn’t give him a chance to show off his striking, but this should be his time to shine. I like Saffiedine to put serious strikes on Smith and possibly stop him on a TKO in round two or three.

King: I think Saffiedine passes Smith while he is going up the ladder and Smith is heading back down. Smith has been in so many wars that it has to start affecting his performance soon. Saffiedine is a prospect that I really like, a well-rounded fighter who is much quicker than Smith. Smith’s biggest weapon, his heavy hands, will have a hard time knocking out Saffiedine. Give me the Belgian to pick up the stoppage victory late in the first.

Martin: Smith has taken a beating now in five consecutive fights. His reflexes are slower, and he has become way too reliant on the home run swing. Saffiedine isn’t a feared striker, but he is young, improving and well-rounded. He’ll pick up the win over the fading veteran.

Critchfield: Saffiedine was outwrestled in his most recent loss against Woodley, but Smith probably won’t attempt to follow a similar game plan. These two are going to stand and bang, and Saffiedine is more well-rounded on the feet than Smith. The combination of the weight cut to 170 pounds and Saffiedine’s technical striking eventually wears down Smith, and the Belgian gets a late TKO.

Jordan Breen: 101-41
Tomasz Marciniak: 100-42
Brian Knapp: 99-43
Tristen Critchfield: 96-46
Guilherme Pinheiro: 95-47
Todd Martin: 95-47
Freddie DeFreitas: 91-51
Tony Loiseleur: 90-52
Rob King: 90-52
Lutfi Sariahmed: 88-54