Great Sherdog Debate: Lawler vs. Smith II
Jul 26, 2008
After a monumental weekend of mixed martial arts action in which
the UFC and the upstart Affliction organization went head to head,
this Saturday looks to be a much calmer night out. With only one
major MMA card on the bill, fans will not have to choose which
event to watch. EliteXC: Unfinished Business, which marks the
promotion’s return to CBS, provides the entertainment, and while
the lineup lacks star power, it could prove to be a sleeper of a
card. Sherdog.com regulars Mike Sloan and TJ De Santis do their
best to break down the main event rematch between EliteXC
middleweight champion Robbie
Lawler (Pictures) and Scott Smith
(Pictures).
Sloan: I took on Steven Curtis the last time I debated this fight, and the bout ended in a no contest. I chose Smith in that one, and after watching their initial encounter, I’m a bit hesitant to pick him again. Lawler/Smith I was an awesome war that ended prematurely when Lawler poked Smith in the eye. Lawler hurt Smith a few times, but he wasn’t ripping him apart.
Heading into the rematch, I’ve watched their first bout multiple
times, and even though Lawler was winning, I liked what I saw from
the decidedly inferior Smith. In fact, he had Lawler in trouble
more than the former Miletich fighter would have liked and seemed
to be gaining an advantage just before the action was halted.
I’m going on record saying that had their first fight not ended the way it did, Smith would have stopped Lawler in spectacular fashion. This time, he’ll finish the job and capture the EliteXC middleweight belt from the “Ruthless” one.
Here’s how I see the fight unfolding. They circle each other, as Lawler fires first. Smith gets tagged, hurt and almost stopped in the first round. Unable to finish his foe, Lawler backs away in an attempt to conserve his fuel. Smith, allowed back into the fight, gets tagged and rocked again just before the bell ends the first round.
Lawler presses the issue early in the second and hurts Smith again, but, like before, Smith covers up and survives the barrage. Lawler backs away again to maintain his cardio but rues his decision. Cut above his right eye, Smith dodges a right-left combination towards the middle of the second round. After those punches miss, Smith fires a right hand that wobbles Lawler. He then unloads everything in his arsenal and catches Lawler with two more right hands. Lawler drops to the canvas, and Smith goes for broke and bombards him with punches until the referee stops it.
When that exact scenario plays out inside the EliteXC cage, I’ll be hailed as the greatest handicapper inside a FedEx truck that ever lived, and you’ll lose another heartbreaker.
De Santis: If the fight would have continued, you think Smith would have stopped Lawler? You’re nuttier than a jar of Skippy. What was Scott going to do, kick him with his broken foot? No doubt the fight was a war, but let’s be honest about what happened. Lawler won that fight. Smith took a not-so-easy way out when he let the cageside doctors know he could not see after the inadvertent eye poke. When it comes to skill, “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (Pictures) trumps Scott Smith (Pictures) in every facet of the game. He has better hands, better wrestling, better ground offense and defense and a lot more power. Smith will taste this power early and often.
Matt Pena has worked wonders with Lawler. When he was “the next big thing” at 170 pounds in the UFC, he was a punk kid who wanted to knock everyone out with one punch. The H.I.T. Squad fighter would often throw caution to the wind and go full force until he won or was stopped himself. Lawler’s losses to Evan Tanner (Pictures) and Nick Diaz (Pictures) were a direct result of being too aggressive. Since leaving the UFC, Lawler has been a different fighter. The UFC and Pride Fighting Championships veteran still has incredible power, but he has better technique and a new understanding of patience to go along with it.
Since leaving the UFC, Lawler has taken out the likes of Frank Trigg (Pictures), Murilo “Ninja” Rua and Falaniko Vitale (Pictures) (twice). He came up short against Jason Miller (Pictures) in Icon Sport, but even that loss held the silver lining of a solid performance. Lawler’s one weakness at this point might be his ground defense, but look at who he’s fighting. Smith’s another powerhouse middleweight who will look to stand on the outside and trade, and that’s a war he will not win.
The fight will serve as a continuation of their EliteXC title bout in May. Smith will look to engage with Lawler, and his face will be peppered repeatedly. Lawler’s jab will be the key to his title defense Saturday, but it will be an upper cut-left hook combination that puts Smith to sleep.
The rest of the card:
Nick Diaz (Pictures) vs. Thomas Denny (Pictures)
Sloan: No offense to Denny, but this is a waste of time for Diaz. Seriously, Diaz should KO or submit this guy in less than two minutes. Then again, this is Nick Diaz (Pictures), and he tends to make every fight an all-out war. With that said, I like Diaz by gogoplata in the first. Yes, I’m predicting that.
De Santis: So we’re missing out on a Hayato “Mach” Sakurai-Nick Diaz (Pictures) fight for this? I was happy when this fight was canceled in 2006. Now, like an annoying ex-girlfriend, it’s back in our lives. Diaz will embarrass “The Wildman” and take him out via TKO. Look for Diaz to put his “mug” on him and batter him like the ninja warrior he is.
EliteXC Welterweight Championship
Jake Shields (Pictures) vs. Nick Thompson (Pictures)
Sloan: Shields is one of those really talented fighters who get overlooked by fans and the media. He hasn’t lost a fight in almost four full years, yet virtually nobody talks about him. Thompson is another solid competitor, and this one should be a good little scrap because, like Shields, “The Goat” has been on an impressive winning streak and is also often overlooked. Who’s submission prowess will prevail? My Magic 8 Ball reads, “Reply hazy. Please try again.” Rats … Shields by armbar in the second.
De Santis: For Shields to win this fight, he will have to take down Thompson. This is going to be harder than anyone thinks. “The Goat” is a giant welterweight who has solid wrestling. To back that up, his striking game has come a long way. Look for Thompson to stave off early takedowns and land solid one-two punches while he’s on his bike. I like Thompson to frustrate Shields from the outside. However, it’s a five-round fight, and Shields will overcome early frustrations to secure the victory on points.
Shayna Baszler (Pictures) vs. Cristiane Santos (Pictures)
Sloan: “Cyborg” Santos is undefeated, but she has not fought in over a year and a half. “The Queen of Spades,” meanwhile, has more losses than Santos has wins, but she has much more experience and has been active with ProElite. Baszler’s my pick by close decision in an entertaining fight.
De Santis: Baszler loves to wear the Muay Thai shorts. However, she never really strikes. She’s going to have her chance with a tough “Cyborg.” Baszler will have trouble, though, and get beaten up because of it. However, just like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Pictures) did with Tim Sylvia (Pictures) at UFC 81, she will secure a submission after getting tagged a few times standing. This fight will trump all other female bouts showcased on television to date.
EliteXC Heavyweight Championship
Antonio Silva (Pictures) vs. Justin Eilers (Pictures)
Sloan: TJ, do you remember when Silva was touted as the next great heavyweight? Well, he hasn’t exactly morphed into that fighter yet, but he’ll take another step closer to realizing his potential when he knocks out Eilers in the first.
De Santis: I do remember that. Eilers is the perfect person to get that thunder rolling again for “Bigfoot.” Silva wins by another hilarious-looking knockout.
Rafael Cavalcante (Pictures) vs. Travis Galbraith (Pictures)
Sloan: This one should be an interesting fight because Feijao has looked promising in his two EliteXC appearances. He should stop Galbraith early in the third.
De Santis: “Feijao” over Galbraith by TKO.
Wilson Reis (Pictures) vs. Bryan Caraway (Pictures)
Sloan: This is one of the more intriguing bouts on the card, as Caraway has more experience and has been on a roll lately. I’ve seen Reis fight twice and like his skill set. Look for him to remain unbeaten with a guillotine choke late in the second.
De Santis: Reis was the best thing about the prelims the last time out for ProElite. I look for him to impress again with a solid submission.
Mike Cook (Pictures) vs. Carl Seumanutafa
Sloan: The ProElite Web site also had Seumanutafa’s last name spelled wrong. That’s two guys on their roster that have had their names misspelled on the site. Those are two more reasons why this organization won’t last much longer; it focuses on the wrong things. At least spell the fighters’ names right. With that said, I like Seumanutafa to squeak past Cook via split decision.
De Santis: Cook is easier to spell. I’ll go with him.
Brandon Tarns (Pictures) vs. Drew Montgomery (Pictures)
Sloan: This is a very evenly matched bout between two guys who have yet to take their careers to the next level. I’m going out on a limb here and suggesting that this fight will end in a no contest.
De Santis: Is your Magic 8 Ball saying, “No contest?” Mine says the bout won’t happen due to “time constraints.” Oh, it will be one of the first fights? Tarn by TKO.
GSD Career Totals:
Fridley: 7-0
Sloan: 22-21 (1 No Contest)
Curtis: 3-3 (1 No Contest)
De Santis: 3-4
Savage: 8-11
Sherwood: 0-1
Holmes: 0-1
Breen: 0-1
Gross (ret): 0-1
Sloan: I took on Steven Curtis the last time I debated this fight, and the bout ended in a no contest. I chose Smith in that one, and after watching their initial encounter, I’m a bit hesitant to pick him again. Lawler/Smith I was an awesome war that ended prematurely when Lawler poked Smith in the eye. Lawler hurt Smith a few times, but he wasn’t ripping him apart.
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I’m going on record saying that had their first fight not ended the way it did, Smith would have stopped Lawler in spectacular fashion. This time, he’ll finish the job and capture the EliteXC middleweight belt from the “Ruthless” one.
Lawler probably has a better chin, but the punching power appears
even and may even lean in Smith’s favor. Even so, Lawler has better
cardio and fights with more aggression, and while he has tightened
up his style, the kid still gets a bit sloppy when he throws.
That’s where Smith will capitalize.
Here’s how I see the fight unfolding. They circle each other, as Lawler fires first. Smith gets tagged, hurt and almost stopped in the first round. Unable to finish his foe, Lawler backs away in an attempt to conserve his fuel. Smith, allowed back into the fight, gets tagged and rocked again just before the bell ends the first round.
Lawler presses the issue early in the second and hurts Smith again, but, like before, Smith covers up and survives the barrage. Lawler backs away again to maintain his cardio but rues his decision. Cut above his right eye, Smith dodges a right-left combination towards the middle of the second round. After those punches miss, Smith fires a right hand that wobbles Lawler. He then unloads everything in his arsenal and catches Lawler with two more right hands. Lawler drops to the canvas, and Smith goes for broke and bombards him with punches until the referee stops it.
When that exact scenario plays out inside the EliteXC cage, I’ll be hailed as the greatest handicapper inside a FedEx truck that ever lived, and you’ll lose another heartbreaker.
De Santis: If the fight would have continued, you think Smith would have stopped Lawler? You’re nuttier than a jar of Skippy. What was Scott going to do, kick him with his broken foot? No doubt the fight was a war, but let’s be honest about what happened. Lawler won that fight. Smith took a not-so-easy way out when he let the cageside doctors know he could not see after the inadvertent eye poke. When it comes to skill, “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (Pictures) trumps Scott Smith (Pictures) in every facet of the game. He has better hands, better wrestling, better ground offense and defense and a lot more power. Smith will taste this power early and often.
Matt Pena has worked wonders with Lawler. When he was “the next big thing” at 170 pounds in the UFC, he was a punk kid who wanted to knock everyone out with one punch. The H.I.T. Squad fighter would often throw caution to the wind and go full force until he won or was stopped himself. Lawler’s losses to Evan Tanner (Pictures) and Nick Diaz (Pictures) were a direct result of being too aggressive. Since leaving the UFC, Lawler has been a different fighter. The UFC and Pride Fighting Championships veteran still has incredible power, but he has better technique and a new understanding of patience to go along with it.
Since leaving the UFC, Lawler has taken out the likes of Frank Trigg (Pictures), Murilo “Ninja” Rua and Falaniko Vitale (Pictures) (twice). He came up short against Jason Miller (Pictures) in Icon Sport, but even that loss held the silver lining of a solid performance. Lawler’s one weakness at this point might be his ground defense, but look at who he’s fighting. Smith’s another powerhouse middleweight who will look to stand on the outside and trade, and that’s a war he will not win.
The fight will serve as a continuation of their EliteXC title bout in May. Smith will look to engage with Lawler, and his face will be peppered repeatedly. Lawler’s jab will be the key to his title defense Saturday, but it will be an upper cut-left hook combination that puts Smith to sleep.
The rest of the card:
Nick Diaz (Pictures) vs. Thomas Denny (Pictures)
Sloan: No offense to Denny, but this is a waste of time for Diaz. Seriously, Diaz should KO or submit this guy in less than two minutes. Then again, this is Nick Diaz (Pictures), and he tends to make every fight an all-out war. With that said, I like Diaz by gogoplata in the first. Yes, I’m predicting that.
De Santis: So we’re missing out on a Hayato “Mach” Sakurai-Nick Diaz (Pictures) fight for this? I was happy when this fight was canceled in 2006. Now, like an annoying ex-girlfriend, it’s back in our lives. Diaz will embarrass “The Wildman” and take him out via TKO. Look for Diaz to put his “mug” on him and batter him like the ninja warrior he is.
EliteXC Welterweight Championship
Jake Shields (Pictures) vs. Nick Thompson (Pictures)
Sloan: Shields is one of those really talented fighters who get overlooked by fans and the media. He hasn’t lost a fight in almost four full years, yet virtually nobody talks about him. Thompson is another solid competitor, and this one should be a good little scrap because, like Shields, “The Goat” has been on an impressive winning streak and is also often overlooked. Who’s submission prowess will prevail? My Magic 8 Ball reads, “Reply hazy. Please try again.” Rats … Shields by armbar in the second.
De Santis: For Shields to win this fight, he will have to take down Thompson. This is going to be harder than anyone thinks. “The Goat” is a giant welterweight who has solid wrestling. To back that up, his striking game has come a long way. Look for Thompson to stave off early takedowns and land solid one-two punches while he’s on his bike. I like Thompson to frustrate Shields from the outside. However, it’s a five-round fight, and Shields will overcome early frustrations to secure the victory on points.
Shayna Baszler (Pictures) vs. Cristiane Santos (Pictures)
Sloan: “Cyborg” Santos is undefeated, but she has not fought in over a year and a half. “The Queen of Spades,” meanwhile, has more losses than Santos has wins, but she has much more experience and has been active with ProElite. Baszler’s my pick by close decision in an entertaining fight.
De Santis: Baszler loves to wear the Muay Thai shorts. However, she never really strikes. She’s going to have her chance with a tough “Cyborg.” Baszler will have trouble, though, and get beaten up because of it. However, just like Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (Pictures) did with Tim Sylvia (Pictures) at UFC 81, she will secure a submission after getting tagged a few times standing. This fight will trump all other female bouts showcased on television to date.
EliteXC Heavyweight Championship
Antonio Silva (Pictures) vs. Justin Eilers (Pictures)
Sloan: TJ, do you remember when Silva was touted as the next great heavyweight? Well, he hasn’t exactly morphed into that fighter yet, but he’ll take another step closer to realizing his potential when he knocks out Eilers in the first.
De Santis: I do remember that. Eilers is the perfect person to get that thunder rolling again for “Bigfoot.” Silva wins by another hilarious-looking knockout.
Rafael Cavalcante (Pictures) vs. Travis Galbraith (Pictures)
Sloan: This one should be an interesting fight because Feijao has looked promising in his two EliteXC appearances. He should stop Galbraith early in the third.
De Santis: “Feijao” over Galbraith by TKO.
Wilson Reis (Pictures) vs. Bryan Caraway (Pictures)
Sloan: This is one of the more intriguing bouts on the card, as Caraway has more experience and has been on a roll lately. I’ve seen Reis fight twice and like his skill set. Look for him to remain unbeaten with a guillotine choke late in the second.
De Santis: Reis was the best thing about the prelims the last time out for ProElite. I look for him to impress again with a solid submission.
Mike Cook (Pictures) vs. Carl Seumanutafa
Sloan: The ProElite Web site also had Seumanutafa’s last name spelled wrong. That’s two guys on their roster that have had their names misspelled on the site. Those are two more reasons why this organization won’t last much longer; it focuses on the wrong things. At least spell the fighters’ names right. With that said, I like Seumanutafa to squeak past Cook via split decision.
De Santis: Cook is easier to spell. I’ll go with him.
Brandon Tarns (Pictures) vs. Drew Montgomery (Pictures)
Sloan: This is a very evenly matched bout between two guys who have yet to take their careers to the next level. I’m going out on a limb here and suggesting that this fight will end in a no contest.
De Santis: Is your Magic 8 Ball saying, “No contest?” Mine says the bout won’t happen due to “time constraints.” Oh, it will be one of the first fights? Tarn by TKO.
GSD Career Totals:
Fridley: 7-0
Sloan: 22-21 (1 No Contest)
Curtis: 3-3 (1 No Contest)
De Santis: 3-4
Savage: 8-11
Sherwood: 0-1
Holmes: 0-1
Breen: 0-1
Gross (ret): 0-1
